Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



Saudi Oil Giant Aramco Posts Third-Quarter Profits of $27.5 Billion

The Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at Hyvolution exhibition in Paris, France, February 1, 2024. (Reuters)
The Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at Hyvolution exhibition in Paris, France, February 1, 2024. (Reuters)
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Saudi Oil Giant Aramco Posts Third-Quarter Profits of $27.5 Billion

The Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at Hyvolution exhibition in Paris, France, February 1, 2024. (Reuters)
The Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at Hyvolution exhibition in Paris, France, February 1, 2024. (Reuters)

Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco reported third-quarter profits of $27.5 billion on Tuesday, down about 15% from last year as low oil prices ate into its revenues.

Aramco had revenues of $111.1 billion over the quarter, the company said in a filing on Riyadh's Tadawul stock exchange. It had $113 billion in revenues the same quarter last year.

Profits for the third quarter last year were $32.5 billion.

The profit decrease “was mainly due to the impact of lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins,” Aramco said.

Profit for the first nine months of 2024 was $83.9 billion, down from $94.5 billion the year before.

Oil prices have been depressed over recent days as tensions in the Middle East appear to have receded slightly and as China's economy has slowed. Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday at around $75 a barrel.

Aramco will pay dividends of $20.28 billion for the third quarter and a performance-linked dividend of $10.77 billion, the company said. It has said it hopes its overall dividend for the year will be over $124 billion.