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Oil Heads for Weekly Gains on Anxiety over Intensifying Ukraine War

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Heads for Weekly Gains on Anxiety over Intensifying Ukraine War

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil prices extended gains on Friday, heading for a weekly uptick of more than 4%, as the Ukraine war intensified with Russian President Vladimir Putin warning of a global conflict.
Brent crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $74.33 a barrel by 0448 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.23 per barrel.
Both contracts jumped 2% on Thursday and are set to cap gains of more than 4% this week, the strongest weekly performance since late September, as Moscow stepped up its offensive against Ukraine after the US and Britain allowed Kyiv to strike Russia with their weapons.
Putin said on Thursday it had fired a ballistic missile at Ukraine and warned of a global conflict, raising the risk of oil supply disruption from one of the world's largest producers.
Russia this month said it produced about 9 million barrels of oil a day, even with output declines following import bans tied to its invasion of Ukraine and supply curbs by producer group OPEC+.
Ukraine has used drones to target Russian oil infrastructure, including in June, when it used long-range attack drones to strike four Russian refineries.
Swelling US crude and gasoline stocks and forecasts of surplus supply next year limited price gains.
"Our base case is that Brent stays in a $70-85 range, with high spare capacity limiting price upside, and the price elasticity of OPEC and shale supply limiting price downside," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note.
"However, the risks of breaking out are growing," they said, adding that Brent could rise to about $85 a barrel in the first half of 2025 if Iran supply drops by 1 million barrels per day on tighter sanctions enforcement under US President-elect Donald Trump's administration.
Some analysts forecast another jump in US oil inventories in next week's data.
"We will be expecting a rebound in production as well as US refinery activity next week that will carry negative implications for both crude and key products," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Florida.
The world's top crude importer, China, meanwhile on Thursday announced policy measures to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over Trump's threats to impose tariffs.

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FAO Aims for Key Outcomes at COP16 in Saudi Arabia

Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)
Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)
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FAO Aims for Key Outcomes at COP16 in Saudi Arabia

Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)
Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)

Dr. Abdul Hakim Elwaer, Assistant Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), stated that the organization will take an active role at COP16, the UN conference on combating desertification, scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia in early December.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he expressed confidence that the conference—the first of its kind in the Middle East—would produce significant outcomes.

Elwaer’s comments came during a roundtable organized by FAO’s regional office in Cairo, attended by a select group of media representatives. The session focused on FAO’s participation in the upcoming conference and the importance of the Rio Trio —the integrated framework of the three major UN conventions addressing climate change, biodiversity conservation, and desertification.

Fida Haddad, FAO’s Program Officer for Land Rehabilitation and Climate Change, highlighted the interconnectedness of the three conventions and noted that COP16 would place a strong emphasis on land and water rehabilitation and their sustainable management.

Haddad pointed out that approximately 90% of the Middle East is affected by arid conditions. Despite this, local communities and Arab governments have made notable progress in addressing desertification and drought. She also announced that, for the first time, FAO has successfully placed food systems on the COP16 agenda, enabling discussions on how land rehabilitation can enhance food supply chains and systems.

Elwaer underscored FAO’s central role in achieving the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG): eradicating hunger. He emphasized that FAO actively engages in the UN conventions on climate change, biodiversity, and desertification, which collectively contribute to this mission.

FAO’s focus, according to Elwaer, is on transforming food and agricultural systems to become more inclusive, efficient, and sustainable, aiming for better production, nutrition, and livelihoods. He highlighted the organization’s success in integrating these priorities into the agendas of the three conventions and collaborating with host countries on joint initiatives.

He further noted that Saudi Arabia’s hosting of COP16 is particularly significant for the region, which faces pressing challenges such as water scarcity, desertification, and food insecurity. The conference presents an opportunity for Middle Eastern nations to highlight these issues, explore solutions, and ensure their inclusion in global environmental discussions, not only at this event but in future COP sessions, he underlined.

Elwaer emphasized the growing global attention on desertification, as it is now impacting regions previously unaffected, such as southern Europe and parts of Latin America. These areas are witnessing alarming declines in arable land and forests, prompting them to seek lessons from the Arab world, which has developed resilience strategies to combat desertification over centuries.

FAO will have a strong presence at COP16, with two dedicated pavilions—one in the Blue Zone for official delegations and another in the Green Zone to engage civil society and conference participants, he said.

He added that in collaboration with Saudi Arabia and the UN, FAO will lead coordination on Food Day and Governance Day, scheduled for December 5 and 6, respectively. The organization will also participate in other specialized sessions throughout the conference.