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Oil Heads for Weekly Gains on Anxiety over Intensifying Ukraine War

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Heads for Weekly Gains on Anxiety over Intensifying Ukraine War

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil prices extended gains on Friday, heading for a weekly uptick of more than 4%, as the Ukraine war intensified with Russian President Vladimir Putin warning of a global conflict.
Brent crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $74.33 a barrel by 0448 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.23 per barrel.
Both contracts jumped 2% on Thursday and are set to cap gains of more than 4% this week, the strongest weekly performance since late September, as Moscow stepped up its offensive against Ukraine after the US and Britain allowed Kyiv to strike Russia with their weapons.
Putin said on Thursday it had fired a ballistic missile at Ukraine and warned of a global conflict, raising the risk of oil supply disruption from one of the world's largest producers.
Russia this month said it produced about 9 million barrels of oil a day, even with output declines following import bans tied to its invasion of Ukraine and supply curbs by producer group OPEC+.
Ukraine has used drones to target Russian oil infrastructure, including in June, when it used long-range attack drones to strike four Russian refineries.
Swelling US crude and gasoline stocks and forecasts of surplus supply next year limited price gains.
"Our base case is that Brent stays in a $70-85 range, with high spare capacity limiting price upside, and the price elasticity of OPEC and shale supply limiting price downside," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note.
"However, the risks of breaking out are growing," they said, adding that Brent could rise to about $85 a barrel in the first half of 2025 if Iran supply drops by 1 million barrels per day on tighter sanctions enforcement under US President-elect Donald Trump's administration.
Some analysts forecast another jump in US oil inventories in next week's data.
"We will be expecting a rebound in production as well as US refinery activity next week that will carry negative implications for both crude and key products," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Florida.
The world's top crude importer, China, meanwhile on Thursday announced policy measures to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over Trump's threats to impose tariffs.

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ECB's Lagarde Renews Integration Call as Trade War Looms

FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governor of the Bank of Finland Olli Rehn arrive at the non-monetary policy meeting of the ECB's Governing Council in Inari, Finnish Lapland, Finland February 22, 2023. Lehtikuva/Tarmo Lehtosalo via REUTERS//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governor of the Bank of Finland Olli Rehn arrive at the non-monetary policy meeting of the ECB's Governing Council in Inari, Finnish Lapland, Finland February 22, 2023. Lehtikuva/Tarmo Lehtosalo via REUTERS//File Photo
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ECB's Lagarde Renews Integration Call as Trade War Looms

FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governor of the Bank of Finland Olli Rehn arrive at the non-monetary policy meeting of the ECB's Governing Council in Inari, Finnish Lapland, Finland February 22, 2023. Lehtikuva/Tarmo Lehtosalo via REUTERS//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governor of the Bank of Finland Olli Rehn arrive at the non-monetary policy meeting of the ECB's Governing Council in Inari, Finnish Lapland, Finland February 22, 2023. Lehtikuva/Tarmo Lehtosalo via REUTERS//File Photo

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde renewed her call for economic integration across Europe on Friday, arguing that intensifying global trade tensions and a growing technology gap with the United States create fresh urgency for action.
US President-elect Donald Trump has promised to impose tariffs on most if not all imports and said Europe would pay a heavy price for having run a large trade surplus with the US for decades.
"The geopolitical environment has also become less favorable, with growing threats to free trade from all corners of the world," Lagarde said in a speech, without directly referring to Trump.
"The urgency to integrate our capital markets has risen."
While Europe has made some progress, EU members tend to water down most proposals to protect vested national interests to the detriment of the bloc as a whole, Reuters quoted Lagarde as saying.
But this is taking hundreds of billions if not trillions of euros out of the economy as households are holding 11.5 trillion euros in cash and deposits, and much of this is not making its way to the firms that need the funding.
"If EU households were to align their deposit-to-financial assets ratio with that of US households, a stock of up to 8 trillion euros could be redirected into long-term, market-based investments – or a flow of around 350 billion euros annually," Lagarde said.
When the cash actually enters the capital market, it often stays within national borders or leaves for the US in hope of better returns, Lagarde added.
Europe therefore needs to reduce the cost of investing in capital markets and must make the regulatory regime easier for cash to flow to places where it is needed the most.
A solution might be to create an EU-wide regulatory regime on top of the 27 national rules and certain issuers could then opt into this framework.
"To bypass the cumbersome process of regulatory harmonization, we could envisage a 28th regime for issuers of securities," Lagarde said. "They would benefit from a unified corporate and securities law, facilitating cross-border placement, holding and settlement."
Still, that would not solve the problem that few innovative companies set up shop in Europe, partly due to the lack of funding. So Europe must make it easier for investment to flow into venture capital and for banks to fund startups, she said.