OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)

OPEC lowered its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 global oil demand growth on Wednesday in the fifth consecutive cut to the producers group's monthly report.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia.

OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices, Reuters reported.

OPEC said it now expects 2024 global oil demand to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd), down from its forecast of 1.82 million bpd last month.

OPEC had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.

OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate to 1.45 million bpd from 1.54 million bpd.



Saudi Energy Minister Discusses Market Stability with Iraqi, Libyan Counterparts

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman meets with Iraq’s Minister of Oil Hayan Abdul Ghani. (SPA).
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman meets with Iraq’s Minister of Oil Hayan Abdul Ghani. (SPA).
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Saudi Energy Minister Discusses Market Stability with Iraqi, Libyan Counterparts

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman meets with Iraq’s Minister of Oil Hayan Abdul Ghani. (SPA).
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman meets with Iraq’s Minister of Oil Hayan Abdul Ghani. (SPA).

As global oil markets anticipate the upcoming OPEC+ meeting next week, attention is focused on economic uncertainties, including weak economic data from China and US President Donald Trump’s calls for lower oil prices.

On Monday, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman met with Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani and Libyan Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq in Riyadh. Their discussions centered on boosting cooperation to stabilize global energy markets and serving the mutual interests of their countries.

The OPEC+ alliance, comprising OPEC members and non-OPEC allies like Russia, is scheduled to hold its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on February 3.

The meeting was held amid US President Donald Trump’s renewed pressure on OPEC to lower oil prices, arguing that such a move could help end the war in Ukraine. However, OPEC+ has already planned a gradual increase in oil production starting in April, signaling a phased rollback of earlier production cuts.

Saudi Arabia has consistently worked towards oil market stability, a commitment reaffirmed by Prince Abdulaziz. Similarly, Saudi Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim, when asked about Trump’s remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, emphasized that Saudi Arabia and OPEC prioritize long-term market stability over short-term price fluctuations.

Prince Abdulaziz also held discussions with Egyptian Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi on enhancing energy cooperation, particularly in energy efficiency, with Saudi Arabia sharing its expertise in the field.

Oil prices saw modest gains on Tuesday, but remained near a two-week low, affected by weak Chinese economic data and forecasts of warmer weather dampening demand expectations. On Monday, Brent crude closed at its lowest level since January 9, while WTI hit its lowest since January 2.

China, the world’s largest crude importer, reported an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity in January, raising concerns about slowing global oil demand. The latest US sanctions on Russian oil trade are also expected to disrupt China’s crude supply.

According to analysts at FGE, refineries in Shandong could lose up to 1 million barrels per day due to US restrictions on Russian oil tankers. While alternative crude sources are being explored, these come at significantly higher costs.

Oil price movements remain intertwined with broader financial market trends, including increased investor interest in DeepSeek, a Chinese company that recently launched a low-cost AI model, influencing overall market sentiment.