Oil Prices Drop on Soft Chinese Spending Data

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Prices Drop on Soft Chinese Spending Data

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil futures dropped from their highest levels in weeks on Monday, pressured by weakness in consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer.

Brent crude futures fell 53 cents, or 0.71%, to $73.96 a barrel by 1300 GMT after settling on Friday at their highest since Nov. 22.

US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 65 cents, or 0.91%, to $70.64 after registering its highest close since Nov. 7 in the previous session.

Chinese industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, but retail sales were slower than expected, keeping pressure on Beijing to ramp up stimulus for a fragile economy facing US trade tariffs under a second Trump administration, Reuters reported.

"Risk off following some weaker than expected Chinese economic data is weighing on crude prices. Market participants are still awaiting guidance how Chinese officials plan to stimulate the economy," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The Chinese outlook contributed the decision by oil producer group OPEC+ to postpone plans for higher output until April.

"Whatever stimulus is being deployed, consumers are not buying into it; and without a serious sea-change in personal spending behaviour, China's economic fortunes will be stunted," said John Evans at oil broker PVM.

Traders also took profits while awaiting the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates this week.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that light profit-taking was to be expected after prices jumped more than 6% last week.

He also noted that many banks and funds are likely to have closed their books given reduced appetite for positions during the holiday season.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, which will also provide an updated look at how much further Fed officials think they will reduce rates in 2025 and perhaps into 2026.

Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand.

Also limiting oil price declines were supply disruption concerns on the potential for more US sanctions against Russia and Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday that the US is exploring additional sanctions on "dark fleet" tankers and could target Chinese banks to limit oil revenue that helps to fund Russia as it continues the war in Ukraine.

Fresh US sanctions on entities trading Iranian oil are already driving prices of the crude sold to China to its highest in years, with the incoming Trump administration expected to ramp up pressure on Iran.



Public Finance of GCC Countries Witnesses Significant Financial Surplus

The Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) logo
The Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) logo
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Public Finance of GCC Countries Witnesses Significant Financial Surplus

The Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) logo
The Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) logo

Data issued by the Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) indicate that the financial risks of the GCC countries will be low in the short term amid forecasts of stable or declining interest rates locally and globally.

The reports issued by Credit rating agencies also signaled an improvement in the sovereign bond rating of the GCC countries in 2023. It is also expected that the credit attractiveness of GCC countries will increase, which would allow for the rescheduling of their public debts at lower financial costs.

According to the estimates of the GCC-Stat, the public debt of the GCC countries is expected to stabilize at 28% of the GCC countries’ GDP during the years 2024 and 2025. The financial budget reform plans, which are based on improving the efficiency of public spending and programs to stimulate growth in non-oil sectors, would contribute to achieving a balance between maintaining the economic growth rate and the sustainability of public spending.

The data issued by the GCC-Stat also reveal that the public debt of the GCC countries has doubled over the past ten years to reach about $628 billion in 2023, after it was $144 billion in 2014. The volume of debt as a percentage of the GCC Countries’ GDP increased to reach its peak in 2020 at 40.3%, before declining in the following years to reach about 29.8% in 2023.

The total public finances in the GCC countries also recorded a significant deficit during 2014-2021. The highest deficit value was registered in 2015, with an amount of about $158 billion, which accounts for 11.1% of the total GCC Countries’ GDP. In 2020, a deficit of $128 billion was recorded, which represents 8.8% of the total GDP.

The public finances of the GCC countries witnessed a significant financial surplus in 2022 estimated at $134 billion, representing 6.1% of the gross domestic product, followed by a surplus of $2 billion in 2023.

The total public revenues in the GCC developed significantly during the period 2021-2023 to record about $641 billion in 2023. Oil revenues accounted for 62% of public revenues, compared to $723 billion in 2022, of which oil revenues accounted for 67%.

Total public spending in the GCC countries reached its highest levels in 2023, recording about $639 billion. Current spending accounted for 85% of the total public spending, compared to 15% for investment spending in the GCC countries.