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Russian Wheat Export Prices Rise

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
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Russian Wheat Export Prices Rise

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo

Russian wheat export prices rose last week, tracking global prices, with analysts expecting weak export activity due to the upcoming long New Year holiday.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the end of January was up $3 to $237 per metric ton.

The Sovecon consultancy saw prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at $233 to $239 per ton, compared with $232 to $238 the previous week.

Russian FOB is expected to be mostly flat on low trade activity, the agency said in a weekly report.

Weekly grain exports were estimated at 0.83 million metric tons, including 0.78 million tons of wheat, up from 0.53 million tons of grain including 0.44 million tons of wheat the previous week as shipments recovered after storm disruptions. Sovecon has upgraded its estimates of December wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons, compared to 3.6 million tons a year ago.

IKAR estimates December wheat exports at 3.6-3.7 million tons, down from 4.4 million tons in November. Algeria is believed to have purchased 1.17 million tons of wheat this week. Some traders also expect some Russian wheat to be supplied. Egypt’s state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, contracted about 1.267 million tons of wheat, most of which was sourced from Russia, two sources with direct knowledge told Reuters.

Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy said on Thursday it saw 2025/26 wheat exports down 6% to 41 million tons. Sovecon said on Monday that Russian wheat exports will fall by 17% to 36.4 million tons in the 2025/26 exporting season. Its forecast for the 2024/2025 season was revised to 43.7 million tons, from 44.1 million tons.

Russia harvested 125 million tons of grain and legumes, including 82 million tons of wheat, in clean weight, in 2024, down 13% from last year, data from statistical agency Rosstat showed on Thursday.

The wheat harvest is also down by 13%, to 82.4 million tons. Winter grains were sown over 17.6 million hectares, 1 million hectares less than in 2023. Temperatures remain above normal in all regions, Sovecon noted. The Russian state weather forecasting agency sees worsening conditions for winter cereals in January in the center of Russia and the Volga region.

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Positive Outlook for Saudi Stock Market Next Week

A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)
A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)
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Positive Outlook for Saudi Stock Market Next Week

A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)
A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) ended the second week of March with a slight decline for the third consecutive week, closing down 0.73% at 11,725.88 points, compared to the previous week's close of 11,811.11 points.

In an analysis of the market performance during the week ending March 13, Dr. Suleiman Al-Humaid Al-Khalidi, a financial market analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the market experienced a sharp decline not seen in years, coinciding with a drop in global markets, particularly in the US, where $2 trillion in value was wiped out in a single day.

This accounted for roughly 60% of the total market value of the Saudi stock market.

Al-Khalidi noted that the key player in the Saudi market is the banking sector, especially Al-Rajhi Bank's shares, which showed resilience and did not follow the downward trend. This was attributed to the strong profits reported by the banking sector in 2024.

The primary factors contributing to the market’s decline include global economic pressures, particularly US tariffs on most global economies, ongoing global uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policies, he explained.

These factors have significantly impacted liquidity flows into financial markets. Additionally, fluctuations in global oil prices, despite recent stability, have also played a role.

This downturn has been accompanied by caution among sovereign wealth funds, investment institutions, and some portfolios in injecting new liquidity or altering their positions until there is more clarity in the financial markets, he went on to say.

Moreover, Al-Khalidi said that the Saudi stock market has not accurately reflected the true strength and size of the Saudi economy, which has grown to SAR 4 trillion, up from SAR 600 billion in 2016, before the launch of Vision 2030.

Additionally, the country’s GDP has reached approximately $1.1 trillion.

Looking ahead to the market's performance in the coming week, he noted that there are strong support levels at 11,550 points, followed by 11,450 points.

These levels could help shift the market toward an upward trajectory and better reflect the robust growth of the Saudi economy.

Al-Khalidi emphasized that the banking and energy sectors could play a leading role in driving the market higher, pushing the index beyond this week’s closing levels.

He also pointed out that some stocks are hitting new lows, presenting significant investment opportunities for those seeking safe havens with steady returns in the Saudi market.