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Oil Rises as Investors Return From Holidays, Eye China Recovery

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Rises as Investors Return From Holidays, Eye China Recovery

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices nudged higher on Thursday, the first day of trade for 2025, as investors returning from holidays cautiously eyed a recovery in China's economy and fuel demand following a pledge by President Xi Jinping to promote growth.
Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.06%, to $74.82 a barrel by 0547 GMT after settling up 65 cents on Tuesday, the last trading day for 2024. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 19 cents, or 0.26%, to $71.91 a barrel after closing 73 cents higher in the previous session, Reuters reported.
China's Xi said on Tuesday in his New Year's address that the country would implement more proactive policies to promote growth in 2025.
China's factory activity grew in December, according to the private-sector Caixin/S&P Global survey on Thursday, but at a slower than expected pace amid concerns over the trade outlook and risks from tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump.
The data echoed an official survey released on Tuesday that showed China's manufacturing activity barely grew in December, though services and construction recovered. The data suggested policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors as China braces for new trade risks.
Traders are returning to their desks and probably weighing higher geopolitical risks and also the impact of Trump running the US economy red hot versus the impact of tariffs, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
"Tomorrow's US ISM manufacturing release will be key to crude oil's next move," Sycamore added.
Sycamore said WTI's weekly chart is winding itself into a tighter range, which suggests a big move is coming.
"Rather than trying to predict in which way the break will occur, we would be inclined to wait for the break and then go with it," he added.
Investors are also awaiting weekly US oil stocks data from the Energy Information Administration that has been delayed until Thursday due to the New Year holiday.
US crude oil and distillate stockpiles are expected to have fallen last week while gasoline inventories likely rose, an extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
US oil demand surged to the highest levels since the pandemic in October at 21.01 million barrels per day (bpd), up about 700,000 bpd from September, EIA data showed on Tuesday.
Crude output from the world's top producer rose to a record 13.46 million bpd in October, up 260,000 bpd from September, the report showed.
In 2025, oil prices are likely to be constrained near $70 a barrel, down for a third year after a 3% decline in 2024, as weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies offset efforts by OPEC+ to shore up the market, a Reuters monthly poll showed.
In Europe, Russia halted gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines running through Ukraine on New Year's Day. The widely expected stoppage will not impact prices for consumers in the European Union as some buyers have arranged alternative supply, while Hungary will keep receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.

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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The US dollar charged ahead on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs.

The focus for markets in 2025 has been on US President-elect Donald Trump's agenda as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures, according to Reuters.

CNN on Wednesday reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries. On Monday, the Washington Post said Trump was looking at more nuanced tariffs, which he later denied.

Concerns that policies introduced by the Trump administration could reignite inflation has led bond yields higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.6709% on Thursday.

"Trump's shifting narrative on tariffs has undoubtedly had an effect on USD. It seems this capriciousness is something markets will have to adapt to over the coming four years," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

The bond market selloff has left the dollar standing tall and casting a shadow on the currency market.

Among the most affected was the pound, which was headed for its biggest three-day drop in nearly two years.

Sterling slid to $1.2239 on Thursday, its weakest since November 2023, even as British government bond yields hit multi-year highs.

Ordinarily, higher gilt yields would support the pound, but not in this case.

The sell-off in UK government bond markets resumed on Thursday, with 10-year and 30-year gilt yields jumping again in early trading, as confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook deteriorates.

"Such a simultaneous sell-off in currency and bonds is rather unusual for a G10 country," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

"It seems to be the culmination of a development that began several months ago. The new Labour government's approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election, and business and consumer sentiment is severely depressed."

Sterling was last down about 0.69% at $1.2282.

The euro also eased, albeit less than the pound, to $1.0302, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week as investors remain worried the single currency may fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per dollar mark that led to Tokyo intervening in the market last July, after it touched a near six-month low of 158.55 on Wednesday.

Though it strengthened a bit on the day and was last at 158.15 per dollar. That all left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, up 0.15% and at 109.18, just shy of the two-year high it touched last week.

Also in the mix were the Federal Reserve minutes of its December meeting, released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank flagged new inflation concerns and officials saw a rising risk the incoming administration's plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

With US markets closed on Thursday, the spotlight will be on Friday's payrolls report as investors parse through data to gauge when the Fed will next cut rates.