Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions
TT

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday reversing earlier declines, as fears of tighter Russian and Iranian supply due to escalating Western sanctions lent support.

Brent futures were up 61 cents, or 0.80%, to $76.91 a barrel at 1119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 46 cents, or 0.63%, to $74.02.

It seems market participants have started to price in some small supply disruption risks on Iranian crude exports to China, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

In China, Shandong Port Group issued a notice on Monday banning US sanctioned oil vessels from its network of ports, according to three traders, potentially restricting blacklisted vessels from major energy terminals on China's east coast.

Shandong Port Group oversees major ports on China's east coast, including Qingdao, Rizhao and Yantai, which are major terminals for importing sanctioned oil.

Meanwhile, cold weather in the US and Europe has boosted heating oil demand, providing further support for prices.

However, oil price gains were capped by global economic data.

Euro zone inflation

accelerated

in December, an unwelcome but anticipated blip that is unlikely to derail further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

"Higher inflation in Germany raised suggestions that the ECB may not be able to cut rates as fast as hoped across the Eurozone, while US manufactured good orders fell in November," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum said.

Technical indicators for oil futures are now in overbought territory, and sellers are keen to step in once again to take advantage of the strength, tempering additional price advances, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

Market participants are waiting for more data this week, such as the US December non-farm payrolls report on Friday, for clues on US interest rate policy and the oil demand outlook.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
TT

Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.