Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher US bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week, Reuters reported.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed US services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

"We're getting very strong US numbers... which has rates going up," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

"There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly."

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

US private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of US rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key US labor data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second US presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

"With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the US, and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

"That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there's still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures."

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labor government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

Japan's consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank's view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

China's yuan hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.



Pakistan Sees Economy on Long-Term Recovery Path Under IMF Program

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaks during the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaks during the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
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Pakistan Sees Economy on Long-Term Recovery Path Under IMF Program

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaks during the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaks during the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Pakistan's economy is on a path to long-term recovery, thanks to a stabilization program backed by the International Monetary Fund, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, ahead of a first review of a $7 billion bailout set for early in March.

The comments came in Sharif's meeting on Tuesday with managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, on the sidelines of the World Government Summit (WGS) 2025 in Dubai, his office said in a statement.

Sharif underscored the progress made under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which has played a key role in stabilizing Pakistan's economy and set it on the path of long-term recovery, it added.

A three-member IMF mission is currently in Pakistan to conduct a Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment under the country's 2024 Extended Fund Facility program.

On Tuesday, the team met with Pakistan's Chief Justice Yahya Afridi to get details regarding the judicial and regulatory system of the cash-strapped country.

In a post on X, Georgieva said, “I am encouraged by their strong commitment to Pakistan's IMF-supported reforms and support their decisive actions.”

These would help pave the way to higher growth and more jobs for Pakistan's youthful population, she added.

Ahead of the IMF review, the government and central bank have expressed confidence about meeting its targets, even as Pakistan struggles to navigate the recovery, following the bailout secured in September.

Tuesday's meeting focused on the macroeconomic stability brought by the government's reform agenda under the IMF program and efforts to maintain fiscal discipline, Sharif's office said.

He vowed to keep up the momentum for reform, particularly in areas such as taxes, energy efficiency and private sector development, it added.