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Gold Firms; Focus on US Data for Cues on Fed's Policy Path

FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo
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Gold Firms; Focus on US Data for Cues on Fed's Policy Path

FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo

Gold prices hovered near a four-week peak on Thursday, while focus shifted to jobs report due on Friday for clarity on the Federal Reserve's 2025 interest rate path.
Spot gold edged 0.1% higher to $2,664.30 per ounce, as of 0732 GMT. US gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,681.80
"Prices are trading in a narrow range ... A new trigger is needed for gold to breach its resistance," said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai.
The bullion hit a near four-week high in the previous session after a weaker-than-expected US private employment report hinted that the Fed may be less cautious about easing rates this year.
The market now awaits US jobs report on Friday for more cues on the Fed's policy path.
Investors are also awaiting Donald Trump to take office on Jan. 20 and his proposed tariffs and protectionist policies are expected to fuel inflation.
Policymakers at the Fed's last meeting also "noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated," the minutes showed on Wednesday.
Bullion is considered an inflationary hedge, but high rates reduce the non-yielding asset's allure.
"We believe the bulk of the rally has been put in and that while gold's upward momentum may carry it higher in the near term and in early 2025, a combination of physical and financial market factors may tame the rally and drive gold moderately lower by the end of next year," HSBC said in a note.
Elsewhere, physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered their first inflow in four years, the World Gold Council said.
Spot silver added 0.2% to $30.17 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.3% to $952.54 and palladium shed 0.8% to $921.37.

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Saudi Inflation Holds Steady in May as Rents Remain Key Driver

Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 
Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 
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Saudi Inflation Holds Steady in May as Rents Remain Key Driver

Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 
Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 

Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate remained stable at 2.2 percent in May 2025, maintaining a pace close to the 2.3 percent recorded in April. The continued stability in prices signals a relative balance in inflationary pressures, despite ongoing increases in housing costs.

This resilience comes amid global economic volatility, reflecting the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and monetary policies, particularly in controlling energy and rental prices. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight uptick of just 0.1 percent.

According to the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), the annual inflation rate for May was driven primarily by rising housing-related costs. Prices in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel sector increased by 6.8 percent compared to the same period last year. Food and beverage prices climbed by 1.6 percent, while personal goods and services saw a 4 percent rise.

Residential rents remained the most significant contributor to inflation, continuing their upward trend and exerting substantial influence on the general index. Despite this, the Kingdom’s inflation rate remains among the lowest in the G20.

Commenting on the data, Dr. Abdullah Al-Jassar, a member of the Saudi Association for Energy Economics, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia’s inflation levels remain comparatively low on a global scale. He said the current rate reflects the flexibility and discipline of the national economy, noting that price increases have been modest and largely under control.

Al-Jassar attributed this to effective government policies that have helped shield both the market and consumers from external shocks.

He emphasized that the inflation observed is a result of real economic activity rather than external disruptions or internal imbalances. One of the most effective tools in curbing inflation, he said, has been the government’s decision to stabilize local energy prices, even as global oil prices surged. Since fuel plays a crucial role in the production, transport, and distribution of goods and services, this policy has prevented cost increases from spilling over into other sectors such as food, construction, and housing.

Al-Jassar described this approach as a “smart policy” that successfully absorbed global inflationary shocks before they reached the end consumer.

Although residential rents jumped 8.1 percent year-on-year, he noted that the rise was gradual and primarily driven by strong demand and limited supply. He also pointed out that the Saudi riyal’s peg to the US dollar has helped protect the economy from imported inflation and reduce the cost of importing goods.

Increased competition, tighter price monitoring, and the growing presence of e-commerce were also cited as factors contributing to market stability and limiting price manipulation across various sectors.

Looking ahead, Al-Jassar suggested inflation could see a slight increase in the second half of 2025, potentially rising to between 2.5 and 3 percent. He attributed this potential uptick to seasonal factors or changes in global commodity prices. Additionally, if the US Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates, this could lead to looser monetary policy in Saudi Arabia, boosting liquidity and consumption—factors that might put upward pressure on prices. However, he stressed that there are currently no signs of any sharp or unexpected inflationary surges.

In April 2025, the inflation rate stood at 2.3 percent, also led by a 6.8 percent rise in housing and related costs. Food and beverages saw a 2.2 percent increase, while personal goods and services were up 3.5 percent.

Month-on-month data showed that while May’s CPI rose by just 0.1 percent, residential rents continued to rise, helping push housing-related prices up by 0.3 percent. Actual rents for residences alone increased by 0.4 percent. Food and beverages inched up by 0.1 percent, while personal goods and services rose by 0.5 percent. Tobacco prices edged up by 0.2 percent.