China Flags More Policy Measures to Bolster Yuan

 People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)
People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)
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China Flags More Policy Measures to Bolster Yuan

 People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)
People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)

China announced more tools to support its weak currency on Monday, unveiling plans to park more dollars in Hong Kong to bolster the yuan and to improve capital flows by allowing companies to borrow more overseas.

A dominant dollar, sliding Chinese bond yields and the threat of higher trade barriers when Donald Trump begins his US presidency next week have left the yuan wallowing around 16-month lows, spurring the central bank into action.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has tried other means to arrest the sliding yuan since late last year, including warnings against speculative moves and efforts to shore up yields.

On Monday, authorities warned again against speculating against the yuan. The PBOC raised the limits for offshore borrowings by companies, ostensibly to allow more foreign exchange to flow in.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng meanwhile told the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong that the central bank will substantially increase the proportion of China's foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong, without providing details.

China's foreign reserves stood at around $3.2 trillion at the end of December. Not much is known about where the reserves are invested.

"Today's comments from the PBOC indicate that currency stability remains an important priority for the central bank, despite the market often discussing the possibility of intentional devaluation to offset tariffs," said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

"Increasing China's foreign reserves will give more ammunition to defend the currency if the market situation eventually necessitates it."

China's onshore yuan traded at 7.3318 per dollar as of 0450 GMT on Monday, not far from a 16-month low of 7.3328 hit on Friday.

It has lost more than 3% to the dollar since the US election in early November, on worries that Trump's threats of fresh trade tariffs will heap more pressure on the struggling Chinese economy.

The central bank has been setting its official midpoint guidance on the firmer side of market projections since mid-November, which analysts say is a sign of unease over the yuan's decline.

Monday's announcements underscore the PBOC's challenges and its juggling act as it seeks to revive economic growth by keeping cash conditions easy, while also trying to douse a runaway bond rally and simultaneously stabilize the currency amid political and economic uncertainty.

It has in recent days unveiled other measures. In efforts to prevent yields from falling too much and to control circulation of yuan offshore, it said it is suspending treasury bond purchases but plans to issue huge amounts of bills in Hong Kong.

Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said while China's onshore market has a much better pool of yuan deposits, Hong Kong plays a "significant role with higher turnover driven by FX swaps and spot transactions."

"This means that Hong Kong can be a venue for supporting the yuan through trading activities and potential investments."

Data on Monday showed China's exports gained momentum in December, with imports also showing recovery, although the export spike at the year-end was in part fueled by factories rushing inventory overseas as they braced for increased trade risks under a Trump presidency.



Urgent Financial Tasks Await Lebanon’s Emerging Government

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stands between Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati (dpa)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stands between Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati (dpa)
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Urgent Financial Tasks Await Lebanon’s Emerging Government

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stands between Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati (dpa)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stands between Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati (dpa)

A broad internal consensus, encompassing both political and economic dimensions, is taking shape to adopt the principles outlined in the presidential inauguration address as the foundation of the new government’s program and ministerial statement. This approach aims to sustain Lebanon’s immediate and strong positive momentum, which is reinforced by widespread support on both Arab and international levels.

Economic bodies and professional unions representing business sectors have openly expressed their relief and full support for the strategic directions set by President Joseph Aoun following his election. However, they have made it clear that maintaining this positive momentum depends on the formation of a reform-oriented rescue government, composed of competent, experienced, and honest ministers. This government must also collaborate constructively with the president.

According to a senior financial official, the rescue mission will be challenging due to years of governmental inaction and constitutional voids, which led to a deterioration in public sector operations and the accumulation of economic, financial, and monetary crises over the past five years. These challenges were further compounded by a devastating war, which inflicted severe human and financial losses estimated at approximately $10 billion, thereby worsening the country’s financial gap, now estimated at $72 billion.

Economic and banking circles are looking to the new government to swiftly capitalize on extensive international support by restoring trust and reestablishing financial channels between Lebanon and its regional and international partners. Key to this effort are explicit and transparent commitments to combating illegal economic activities, corruption, smuggling, money laundering, and drug trafficking. In parallel, the government must prioritize strengthening judicial independence and implementing strict controls over land, sea, and air borders.

The national consensus evident in the presidential election, according to Mohammad Choucair, head of Lebanon’s economic associations, paves the way for constructive collaboration among political factions. This collaboration is crucial for addressing challenges, rebuilding the state, and benefiting from renewed international and Arab—particularly Gulf and Saudi—interest in Lebanon. Choucair emphasized the importance of normalizing relations with Gulf nations, supporting Lebanon’s recovery, and providing resources for reconstruction efforts.

One of the urgent tasks for the new government, according to the financial official, is revisiting the draft 2024 state budget, which was previously submitted to parliament. Adjustments are necessary to address fundamental discrepancies in expenditure and revenue projections, taking into account significant changes brought about by the Israeli war.

Ibrahim Kanaan, chairman of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, described the budget as “unrealistic, if not entirely fictitious,” particularly in its revenue estimates. He pointed out that revenue increases were based on income and capital taxes, internal duties, and trade-related fees, all of which have been severely impacted by the war.

Reassuring depositors, both domestic and expatriate, who have suffered massive losses over recent years, is another pressing issue. These losses were exacerbated by the inability of successive governments to implement a comprehensive rescue plan addressing the $72 billion financial gap fairly. The situation was worsened by mismanagement in the electricity sector and the squandering of over $20 billion in central bank reserves following the onset of the financial crisis.

In response to Aoun’s commitment to a fair resolution for depositors, the Association of Banks in Lebanon welcomed his emphasis on safeguarding deposits. It also expressed its readiness to collaborate with the central bank and the government to protect depositors’ rights, citing a recent State Council ruling that prohibits any financial recovery plans from including measures that would erode depositors’ funds.

In its final session, the caretaker government addressed long-standing creditor issues by unanimously agreeing to suspend Lebanon’s right to invoke statutes of limitations on claims by foreign bondholders under New York law. This suspension, effective until March 9, 2028, aims to facilitate future negotiations.

With this decision, the caretaker government tacitly acknowledged Lebanon’s pending debt obligations, including over $10 billion in suspended interest payments on Eurobonds and approximately $30 billion in principal debt. The resolution now awaits direct negotiations under the new administration, which faces the challenge of resolving a nearly five-year-old crisis triggered by the previous government’s uncoordinated decision to halt payments on all Eurobond obligations through 2037.

Caretaker Finance Minister Youssef Khalil emphasized that despite the difficult circumstances, “Lebanon remains committed to reaching a fair and consensual resolution regarding the restructuring of Eurobond debt.”