US Dollar Holds Ground as China Tariffs Kick in, Euro Slides

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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US Dollar Holds Ground as China Tariffs Kick in, Euro Slides

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

US dollar held its ground on Tuesday as President Donald Trump's tariff threats were interpreted more as a negotiating tactic rather than an end goal, a day after he suspended planned measures against Mexico and Canada.

However, the new Trump administration imposed additional 10% tariffs on imports from China effective from early Tuesday and currency analysts said they expected high sensitivity to tariff developments and volatility to persist.

The US dollar index, a measure of the value of the greenback relative to a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies, was up 0.1% at 108.5 while the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso weakened, after Monday's rebound, according to Reuters.

The euro declined slightly, with Washington threatening that the European Union may be next in line for trade levies, which are widely expected to push up US inflation, supporting the dollar by keeping US interest rates higher for longer.

"That Trump wants to negotiate is clear," said Marcus Widén, an economist at SEB.

"But at the same time, there is a basic idea that tariff revenues should finance tax cuts, and from that perspective, one could wonder if one can go back on tariff plans every time."

Beijing on Tuesday imposed tariffs on some US imports in a swift response to new US duties on Chinese goods, raising the stakes in a showdown between the world's top two economies.

"Overall, the (Chinese) measures are relatively modest," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

"It suggests that China is wary of pushing back too hard against Trump’s latest tariffs and is leaving the door open for future negotiations," he added, recalling that the 10% tariff hike for China could just be the first step after Trump threatened to raise tariffs as high as 60%.

Analysts also flagged that it will be hard for China and the US to agree on what Trump demands.

The Chinese yuan edged up 0.1% to 7.30 per dollar in offshore trading. There is no official yuan trading until Wednesday, with mainland markets still closed for Lunar New Year festivities.

The Australian dollar, which often acts as a liquid proxy for the yuan because the Australian economy is highly exposed to China, fell 0.3% to $0.6206, well above Monday's low of $0.6085, the weakest level since April 2020.

EURO LOWER

The euro slid 0.20% to $1.032, with market participants watching parity.

"The maximum trade war risk premium seen during the first Trump administration was six big figures which would take the euro/dollar to parity," said George Saravelos, head of forex research at Deutsche Bank.

"A European Central Bank (terminal rate) repricing down to 1.50%, with the Fed (policy path) unchanged, would take the euro/dollar further down to 0.98-0.99 based on current betas."

Several analysts recently said that US tariffs would have a deflationary effect on the euro area.

Money markets increased their bets on ECB rate cuts on Monday, pricing in a depo rate at 1.85% in December from 1.95% late on Friday. They are currently discounting 1.9%.

The Canadian dollar lost 0.03% to C$1.4433 against its US counterpart, following a sharp rebound from a low of C$1.4792 on Monday, the weakest level since 2003.

The Mexican peso dropped 0.6% to 20.4686, after jumping over 1.5% the day before.

The pound edged lower against the euro after recording its biggest daily rise in three months as investors expect US tariffs to hurt the economy more in Europe than in the UK.

The US dollar gained 0.40% to 155.38 yen, with the Japanese currency seen as a safe-haven currency and the greenback less appealing after recent rises.



Oil Dips as Economic Concerns, Supply and Demand Expectations Weigh

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
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Oil Dips as Economic Concerns, Supply and Demand Expectations Weigh

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday after surging in the previous session on a larger-than-expected draw in US gasoline stocks, as markets weighed macroeconomic concerns and demand versus supply expectations. Brent futures were down 30 cents to $70.65 a barrel at 1140 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 31 cents to $67.37 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rallied about 2% on Wednesday after US government data showed tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories.

US gasoline inventories fell by 5.7 million barrels, more than the 1.9 million-barrel draw expected by analysts, while distillate stocks also dropped more than anticipated, despite gains in crude stocks, Reuters reported.

"Declining US gasoline inventories raised expectations for a seasonal demand increase in spring, but concerns about the global economic impact of tariff wars weighed on the market," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment.

"With strong and weak factors progressing simultaneously, it has become difficult for the market to lean decisively in one direction or the other," he added. US President Donald Trump threatened on Wednesday to escalate a global trade war with further tariffs on European Union goods, as major US trading partners said they would retaliate for trade barriers already erected by the US president.

Trump's focus on tariffs has rattled investors, consumers and business confidence, and raised US recession fears. With the US president's stated commitment to cheaper oil, Citi analysts said their outlook for Brent by the second half of 2025 is $60 a barrel.

Global oil supply could

exceed demand

by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, revising down its 2025 demand growth forecast. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Wednesday that Kazakhstan led a sizeable jump in February crude output by the wider OPEC+, highlighting a challenge for the producer group in enforcing adherence to agreed output targets, even as it intends to unwind production cuts.

Worries about flagging jet fuel demand weighed further on markets, with JP Morgan analysts saying that US Transportation Security Administration data showed "passenger volumes for March have decreased by 5% year-over-year, following stagnant traffic in February".

However, recent firm global demand numbers limited overall market weakness.

"As of March 11, global oil demand averaged 102.2 million barrels per day, expanding 1.7 million barrels per day year-over-year and exceeding our projected increase for the month by 60,000 barrels per day," the JP Morgan analysts added.