Oil Climbs on Supply Worries, Trump Tariffs Check Gains

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
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Oil Climbs on Supply Worries, Trump Tariffs Check Gains

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday amid concerns over Russian and Iranian oil supply and sanctions threats despite worries that escalating trade tariffs could dampen global economic growth.

Brent crude futures were up $1.2, or 1.6%, at $77.07 a barrel by 1313 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.11 or 1.5% to $73.43.

Both contracts posted gains of near 2% in the prior session after three weekly losses in a row, Reuters reported.

"With the US bearing down on Iranian exports and sanctions still biting into Russian flows, Asian crude grades remain firm and underpin the rally from yesterday," PVM oil analyst John Evans said.

Shipping of Russian oil to China and India, the world's major crude oil importers, has been significantly disrupted by US sanctions last month targeting tankers, producers and insurers.

Adding to supply jitters are US sanctions on networks shipping Iranian oil to China after President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" on Iranian oil exports last week.

But countering the price gains was the latest tariff by Trump which could dampen global growth and energy demand.

Trump on Monday substantially raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US to 25% "without exceptions or exemptions" to aid the struggling industries that could increase the risk of a multi-front trade war.

The tariff will hit millions of tons of steel and aluminium imports from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and other countries.

"Tariffs and counter-tariffs have the potential to weigh on the oil intensive part of the global economy in particular, creating uncertainty over demand," Morgan Stanley said in a note on Monday.

"However, we think this backdrop will probably also cause OPEC+ to extend current production quotas once again, which would solve for a balanced market in [the second half of 2025]", the bank added.

Trump last week introduced 10% additional tariffs on China, for which Beijing retaliated with its own levies on US imports, including a 10% duty on crude.

Also weighing on crude demand, the US Federal Reserve will wait until the next quarter before cutting rates again, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who previously expected a March cut.

The Fed faces the threat of rising inflation under Trump's policies. Keeping rates at a higher level could limit economic growth, which would impact oil demand growth.

US crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, while distillate inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The poll was conducted ahead of weekly reports from industry group, the American Petroleum Institute, due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday and an Energy Information Administration report due on Wednesday.



IEA Is Ready to Further Tap Global Oil Reserves if Needed, Chief Says

25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)
25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)
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IEA Is Ready to Further Tap Global Oil Reserves if Needed, Chief Says

25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)
25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said on Monday he hopes another oil stockpile release is not needed but "we stand ready to act" if the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran requires ‌it.

The 32-member ‌IEA agreed last month ‌to ⁠release 400 million barrels of ⁠oil from reserves, the largest coordinated release ever, in a bid to calm oil markets.

The US, the world's largest oil and gas producer, agreed to release 172 million barrels ⁠from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"I ‌hope, very much ‌hope, we don't need to do ‌it but if it is needed we ‌are ready to act," Birol said.

Birol reiterated at an Atlantic Council event that the war has resulted in the worst ‌global energy disruption ever and said that more than 80 oil ⁠and ⁠gas facilities including production, terminals and refineries across the Middle East have been damaged by war with Iran.

Benchmark oil prices are trading near $100 a barrel.

Due to the vast extent of the production shut-ins and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil releases are "not a solution," Birol said, "it's just reducing the pain."


Hapag-Lloyd Says US Plans to Block Hormuz Difficult to Assess

(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)
(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)
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Hapag-Lloyd Says US Plans to Block Hormuz Difficult to Assess

(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)
(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)

Germany's Hapag-Lloyd said on Monday that it is difficult to assess what effect US President Donald Trump's plans to block the Strait of Hormuz would have on shipping.

"What's important is that passage through the Strait of Hormuz be restored as soon as possible," said a company spokesperson in an emailed statement.

From Hapag-Lloyd's view, as long as there are mines, passage is not possible, and in addition, insurance for passage is also difficult to obtain at this time, added the spokesperson.


UN: Iran War Could Plunge 32 million into Poverty

People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
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UN: Iran War Could Plunge 32 million into Poverty

People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)

More than 32 million people worldwide could be plunged into poverty by the economic fallout from the Iran war, with developing countries expected to be hit hardest, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) warned.

In a report issued amid doubts over a fragile ceasefire, the UNDP said the world is facing a “triple shock” involving energy, food and weaker economic growth.

The agency said the conflict is reversing gains in international development, with the impact expected to be felt unevenly across regions.

Alexander De Croo, UNDP administrator and former prime minister of Belgium, said: “A conflict like this is development in reverse. Even if the war stops, and a ceasefire is very welcome, the impact is already there.”

“You will see an enduring impact, especially in poorer countries, where people are being pushed back into poverty. This is the most painful aspect. The people being pushed into poverty are very often the same people who were in poverty, escaped it, and are now being pushed back.”

Energy prices surged sharply during the six weeks of the Iran war after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked global oil and gas supplies. With knock-on effects on fertilizer supplies and global shipping, experts warn of a “time bomb” threatening food security in the developing world.

The head of the International Monetary Fund said the war’s “devastating effects” have caused lasting damage to the global economy, even if the conflict ends.

Publishing its report alongside meetings of world leaders in Washington for the IMF Spring Meetings, the UNDP said a global response is required to support countries hardest hit by the economic fallout.

It said targeted and temporary cash transfers are needed to protect the most vulnerable households in developing countries, at a cost of about $6 billion to mitigate the shocks for those living below the poverty line.

De Croo said international agencies and development banks could provide financial support. “There is a positive economic return from short-term cash transfers to avoid people being pushed back into poverty,” he said. Alternative measures could include temporary subsidies or vouchers for electricity or cooking gas.

Setting out three scenarios for the war, the UNDP found that in the worst case – involving six weeks of major disruption to oil and gas production and eight months of sustained higher costs – up to 32.5 million people globally would fall into poverty.

The report used the upper-middle-income poverty line defined by the World Bank, set at less than $8.30 per person per day.

The UNDP said that while richer countries are in a stronger position to cushion the economic fallout, countries in the global south face weaker conditions and already severe financial constraints.

This comes as western governments, including the US, Germany, France and the UK, cut aid spending amid rising borrowing and debt levels in advanced economies and calls to increase defense spending.

Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development published last week showed that countries in its Development Assistance Committee cut aid spending to $174.3 billion in 2025, nearly a quarter lower than in 2024.