UK Economy Ekes Out Modest Growth in Final Quarter of 2024

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves speaks about her plans for Britain's economy in Eynsham, England, Wednesday Jan. 29, 2025. (Peter Cziborra/Pool Photo via AP)
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves speaks about her plans for Britain's economy in Eynsham, England, Wednesday Jan. 29, 2025. (Peter Cziborra/Pool Photo via AP)
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UK Economy Ekes Out Modest Growth in Final Quarter of 2024

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves speaks about her plans for Britain's economy in Eynsham, England, Wednesday Jan. 29, 2025. (Peter Cziborra/Pool Photo via AP)
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves speaks about her plans for Britain's economy in Eynsham, England, Wednesday Jan. 29, 2025. (Peter Cziborra/Pool Photo via AP)

The British economy managed to eke out a quarterly growth of 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024 following a stronger than anticipated performance in December.
The Office for National Statistics said Thursday that the 0.4% expansion in December was a result of a broad-based expansion, with pubs doing particularly well in the run-up to Christmas.
The fourth quarter figures means the economy grew by 0.9% overall in 2024, The Associated Press reported.
The quarterly increase followed no growth in the previous three months and may ease some of the pressure on Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, who critics say has been partly responsible for the economic slowdown since Labour returned to power in July.
Last week, the Bank of England halved its growth forecast for the British economy for 2025 to 0.75% as it cut its main interest rate to 4.5%.
If that turns out to be remotely accurate, it will be hugely disappointing news for the UK’s new Labour government, which has made growth its top mission. The party has pledged to boost living standards and generate funds for cash-starved public services. With growth proving elusive, the party’s popularity has fallen sharply since its election victory in July.
In recent weeks, Reeves has set out plans to boost longer-term growth, such as backing a third runway at London's Heathrow Airport. She has also pledged to create a Silicon Valley-like technology hub between the two university towns of Oxford and Cambridge, backed the regeneration of the area around Manchester United’s Old Trafford soccer stadium, as well as a “reset” of the UK’s post-Brexit economic relations with the European Union.
Reeves said the government will go “further and faster” to bolster growth in the months and years ahead.
“That is why we are taking on the blockers to get Britain building again, investing in our roads, rail and energy infrastructure, and removing the barriers that get in the way of businesses who want to expand," she said.



Turkish Lira Touches Record Low, Stocks and Bonds Slide After Istanbul Mayor Detained 

24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira bills are seen fanned out. (dpa)
24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira bills are seen fanned out. (dpa)
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Turkish Lira Touches Record Low, Stocks and Bonds Slide After Istanbul Mayor Detained 

24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira bills are seen fanned out. (dpa)
24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira bills are seen fanned out. (dpa)

Türkiye's lira fell as much as 12.7% and touched a new all-time low of 42 to the dollar on Wednesday, with bonds and stocks also tumbling sharply, after authorities detained President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

The move against Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, was called "a coup attempt" by the opposition and appears to cap an aggressive months-long legal crackdown on opposition figures across the country which has been condemned as a politicized attempt to silence dissent.

Imamoglu was expected to be named as the main opposition's presidential candidate within days.

The lira traded at 38.90 to the dollar at 1016 GMT, from a close of 36.67 on Tuesday, having recouped some of the losses from the all-time low it hit earlier - but still having had its biggest decline since July 2023. The earlier tumble to 42 marked one of the lira's largest absolute intraday moves on record.

Türkiye's international government bonds also came under pressure with longer-dated maturities suffering the sharpest falls. The 2045 maturity fell 1.6 cents to be bid at 85.117 cents, its lowest level since

"In Türkiye this morning, bonds and FX are coming under pressure after a potential presidential candidate, the mayor of Istanbul, was arrested," said Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX & fixed income strategist at ING.

"(Türkiye's lira) is the most heavily positioned carry-trade in the emerging markets space at the moment in our view, and a sharp move could potentially lead to further outflows. On the other hand, we should see local banks providing some FX support."

MONETARY POLICY

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said they were doing everything necessary to ensure healthy functioning of the markets, without giving further details.

Bankers calculate that the Turkish central bank sold a minimum of $5 billion in FX after lira's crash, while some say it may have already reached $10 billion for the day.

Analysts and investors were also concerned about the knock on effect for monetary policy, worrying that the sharp decline in the lira could delay or halt the rate-cutting cycle since the central bank has been ensuring real appreciation of the currency for months.

The central bank had in December embarked on an easing cycle for the first time after an 18-month tightening effort that reversed years of unorthodox economic policies and easy money championed by Erdogan, which had seen the economy run red hot and inflation exceeding 70%. Erdogan has supported the steps by the central bank for a more orthodox policy.

"With this FX shock they need to keep rates where they are for now," one banker said.

Stocks also crashed, reflecting investor worries over rule of law. Turkish blue-chip stocks fell by nearly 6%, set for their worst daily performance since late 2023.

The banking sub-index declined 9.67%. Borsa Istanbul said trading was halted temporarily after the main BIST 100 index fell 6.87% in early trading and the market-wide circuit breaker was triggered.

"A wave of selling was triggered after Imamoglu's diploma was annulled and he was detained. There have been foreign investor inflows in recent days ... but political uncertainty currently prevails and concerns about foreign investors leaving the country have increased," Serhat Baskurt, algorithmic operations manager at ALB Yatırım, said.

Baskurt said he expected the decline on the stock exchange to continue over the coming days.

Borsa Istanbul said that the uptick rule on short sale transactions for the BIST 50 index would be used on Wednesday. The rule requires short sales to be conducted at a higher price than the previous trade.