Oil Prices Fall on Potential Ukraine Peace Talks

An oil pump of IPC Petroleum France is seen during sunset outside Soudron, near Reims, France, February 6, 2023. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol/File Photo
An oil pump of IPC Petroleum France is seen during sunset outside Soudron, near Reims, France, February 6, 2023. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol/File Photo
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Oil Prices Fall on Potential Ukraine Peace Talks

An oil pump of IPC Petroleum France is seen during sunset outside Soudron, near Reims, France, February 6, 2023. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol/File Photo
An oil pump of IPC Petroleum France is seen during sunset outside Soudron, near Reims, France, February 6, 2023. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol/File Photo

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Thursday as a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to exert downward pressure, along with rising crude inventories in the United States.

Brent futures were down $1.04 or 1.4%, at $74.14 a barrel by 1303 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.04, or 1.5%, to $70.33.

Brent and WTI lost more than 2% on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said Russian that President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him and Trump ordered US officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

The oil price decline over the past 24 hours looks to be driven by a change from supply concerns to sufficient supply, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that some market participants expect an increase in Russian energy exports, Reuters reported.

Russian oil exports could be sustained if workarounds to the latest US sanctions package are found, after Russian crude production rose slightly last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest oil market report.

The Ukraine news and Wednesday's US oil inventories data offset higher US inflation numbers that could drive the US Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025, said PVM analyst John Evans.

Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and sanctions imposed on its crude exports after its invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago have supported higher prices.

ANZ analysts said on Thursday that oil prices declined on news of the potential peace talks because of "optimism that risks to crude oil supplies would ease", pointing to the US and EU sanctions.

"Signs of tightening supply have been pushing up oil prices in recent weeks," they said. "US sanctions on Russian oil companies and vessels are said to have exacerbated the situation."

A build in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's biggest crude consumer, also weighed on the market. US crude stocks rose more than expected last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

Also weighing on prices were US President Donald Trump's plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on Thursday. "Today is the big one: reciprocal tariffs," Trump wrote on his social media platform.



Gold Rises as Fears Mount over Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Plans

FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo
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Gold Rises as Fears Mount over Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Plans

FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo

Gold prices rose on Thursday as US auto tariffs ratcheted up global trade tensions ahead of an April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs from the world's largest economy.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,028.65 an ounce, as of 0650 GMT. US gold futures gained 0.5% to $3,036.10.

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week, widening the global trade war.

Investors feared that Trump's reciprocal tariffs, expected to take effect on April 2, might fuel inflation, slow economic growth and heighten trade tensions.

Concerns over Trump's tariff policies catapulted gold to a record high of $3,057.21 on March 20.

Aakash Doshi, global head of gold at SPDR ETF Strategy, expects gold will breach $3,100 in the second quarter and "the market could potentially push another 8%-10% higher by end-2025 if the current macro and physical market tailwinds sustain for the yellow metal."

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce from $3,100, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand.

Investors await the US personal consumption expenditures data, due on Friday, which could shed more light on the US interest rate path.

"The March high near $3,057 is immediate resistance for gold prices. The $3,100 figure follows next," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Last week, the US central bank held benchmark interest rate steady, but indicated it could cut rates later this year. Non-yielding bullion tends to thrive in a low interest-rate environment.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that while the US central bank has made a lot of progress bringing inflation down, "we have more work to do" to get inflation to the Fed's 2% target.

Spot silver rose 0.1% to $33.73 an ounce, platinum fell 0.4% to $970.34 and palladium lost 0.5% to $963.03.