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IMF Makes Progress Toward Reaching Staff Agreement with Pakistan on First Review of $7 Bln Program

People buy dry fruits at a market in Karachi, Pakistan February 1, 2023. (Reuters)
People buy dry fruits at a market in Karachi, Pakistan February 1, 2023. (Reuters)
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IMF Makes Progress Toward Reaching Staff Agreement with Pakistan on First Review of $7 Bln Program

People buy dry fruits at a market in Karachi, Pakistan February 1, 2023. (Reuters)
People buy dry fruits at a market in Karachi, Pakistan February 1, 2023. (Reuters)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistani authorities made significant progress toward reaching a staff level agreement on the first review of an ongoing $7 billion program, IMF Mission Chief Nathan Porter said in a statement on Saturday.

The mission and Pakistani authorities will continue policy discussions via video conference to finalize these discussions over the coming days, the statement said, according to the Pakistani newspaper, The News.

“The IMF and the Pakistani authorities made significant progress toward reaching a Staff Level Agreement (SLA) on the first review under the 37-month Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF),” Porter said in a statement on Friday.

The lender's team, led by Porter, was in Pakistan from February 24 to March 14 to hold discussions on the first review of Pakistan's economic program supported by the EFF and the possibility of a new arrangement under the lender's Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

The South Asian country, which has faced an economic meltdown in recent years, is treading a long path to economic recovery under the $7 billion IMF program it secured in September last year.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry has called for immediate action from Islamabad to resolve the trade crisis with the Taliban and Central Asian countries.

The chamber’s president highlighted the negative impacts of the closed Torkham border crossing and transit taxes on Pakistan’s economy and regional trade.

Junaid Makda, president of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said on Friday that increasing trade barriers, rising transportation costs, and the continued closure of the Torkham border are severely harming cross-border businesses.

Makda also warned of potential long-term damage to Pakistan’s economy due to the ongoing situation, stating that it forces traders to use Iranian ports instead of Pakistani routes, which will harm the country’s trade network.

The Torkham border has been closed for more than 20 days due to border tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that the crossing will remain closed until the Taliban halt construction activities in the area.

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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)

Economic experts have warned that a protracted conflict between Israel and Iran could have far-reaching repercussions on the global economy, driving up energy prices and disrupting key sectors including aviation, insurance, trade, and maritime navigation.

 

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Saudi Shura Council member Fadl Al-Buainain said the ongoing military confrontation is already impacting global energy markets, with oil prices spiking to multi-month highs in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak.

 

He warned that continued Iranian threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz could further fuel the surge in energy prices. “Such an act would be hostile, not only to Gulf nations but also to global consumers, compounding the challenges already facing the world economy”, Al-Buainain said.

 

He stressed that the energy sector is particularly vulnerable to military escalations. “Any disruption to oil production or exports from major producers could send oil and gas prices skyrocketing, with direct consequences for global economic stability”, he said.

 

While current military actions have had limited impact on output and exports, Al-Buainain cautioned that any direct strikes on energy infrastructure could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, depending on how badly global supply chains are hit.

 

The conflict has already disrupted international flight routes and increased operational costs for airlines, he said, while surging risk premiums have driven up insurance costs across the region. Maritime trade and shipping lanes are also at risk of direct disruption.

 

Al-Buainain noted that the fallout will vary across the region. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia, thanks to its strategic location and Red Sea ports, is better positioned to maintain the flow of trade. The kingdom also benefits from pipelines that transport oil from the east to the west, partially shielding its exports from Gulf disruptions.

 

He described energy as the “real engine” of the global economy and said it, along with foreign trade, will bear the brunt of the economic impact. "But the human cost and developmental setbacks caused by war are far worse”, he added.

 

Al-Buainain warned that prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution are diminishing. “Starting wars is easier than ending them,” he said, adding that an Iranian move to shut down Hormuz, while difficult in practice, could spark a direct confrontation with global powers, particularly the United States. “If American interests are attacked, Washington could be drawn into the conflict, which risks expanding beyond control”.

 

Khaled Ramadan, head of the Cairo-based International Center for Strategic Studies, said Israel’s strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including the Abadan refinery, which has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, could severely reduce oil and gas supplies if the conflict drags on.

 

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Brent crude had already risen 8–13% following the escalation, crossing $78 per barrel. “Should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, we could see oil prices surge to record levels”, he warned.

 

Ramadan said the conflict could also disrupt global supply chains, especially through Hormuz, affecting non-oil goods such as electronics and food. Shipping and insurance costs would rise, leading to higher consumer prices and a slowdown in global trade.

 

Food staples such as wheat and corn, along with petrochemicals, garments, electronics, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals are all likely to see price increases, he said, citing higher energy and transport costs as well as declining market confidence.

 

Ramadan added that the economic fallout includes rising inflation, weakening currencies, and a drop in investment — particularly in tourism and tech.

 

“The Iranian rial and Israeli shekel have already hit their lowest levels this year,” he noted, adding that the war could reshape global energy alliances, with Europe increasingly seeking alternative suppliers.