Israel's Shekel and Bonds Slide as Gaza Ceasefire Buckles

New Israeli Shekel banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken November 9, 2021. REUTERS/Nir Elias/Illustration/File photo
New Israeli Shekel banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken November 9, 2021. REUTERS/Nir Elias/Illustration/File photo
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Israel's Shekel and Bonds Slide as Gaza Ceasefire Buckles

New Israeli Shekel banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken November 9, 2021. REUTERS/Nir Elias/Illustration/File photo
New Israeli Shekel banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken November 9, 2021. REUTERS/Nir Elias/Illustration/File photo

Israel's currency fell alongside its bonds and stock market on Tuesday as a wave of deadly airstrikes by its military in Gaza threatened the complete collapse of an already fragile two-month ceasefire with Hamas.

Concerns about both the humanitarian and economic costs of a return to intense fighting spiked as Israel's resumption of bombing of Gaza, which it said was a "preemptive offensive" to try to force the release of its remaining hostages, prompted anger from Hamas.

Israel's shekel dropped as much as half a percent against both the dollar and euro, while many of its government bonds, which suffered a wave of rating downgrades last year due to the war, had their biggest falls in over a month, Reuters reported.

Ronen Menachem, chief markets economist at Mizrahi Tefahot Bank, said a resumption in the conflict could see further falls in the shekel and a renewed rise in Israel’s bond market risk premium.

"The market will react based on whether this is perceived as a defined and limited operation or the opening of a broader campaign," he said.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had instructed the military to take Tuesday's "strong action" in response to Hamas's refusal to release the remaining 59 hostages it holds following its October 7, 2023 attacks and its rejection of other ceasefire proposals.

The Palestinian militant group accused Netanyahu of breaching the ceasefire deal and jeopardizing efforts by mediators to secure a permanent truce.

Negotiating teams from Israel and Hamas had been in Doha as mediators from Egypt and Qatar sought to bridge the gap between the two sides after the end of an initial phase in the ceasefire, in which 33 Israeli hostages and five Thais were released in exchange for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.



Dollar Rises ahead of Fed; Turkish Lira Drop Reins in G10 Currencies

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Rises ahead of Fed; Turkish Lira Drop Reins in G10 Currencies

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar rallied on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, but retreated from the day's highs after markets stabilized from an early shock caused by the detention

of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival.

Traders are also digesting the Bank of Japan's earlier decision to hold interest rates steady, while the Fed's policy decision later will be crucial for investors eager to know what the central bank makes of Trump's policies and their impact on the US economy, and how that affects the rate outlook.

Fed policymakers are widely expected to keep rates on hold, and will also release new economic projections at the conclusion of the meeting later in the day, Reuters reported.

Feeding into an earlier rally in the dollar was news out of Turkey which saw the lira briefly tumble by the most in a day on record, rippling through major currencies as investors shifted into safe-haven assets.

By 1226 GMT, the euro was down 0.3% versus the dollar to $1.091, having fallen as much as 0.6% earlier. Even so, it remains near a five-month high of $1.0955 scaled in the previous session.

"The news from Turkey is having an impact on G10 currency markets and risk appetite in general," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

"But I would think some of the initial impact of what's happened will begin to filter out from some of the euro trade once the market has become a bit more accustomed to it."

The yen weakened against the dollar, which rose 0.3% to 149.805 in volatile trade as investors mulled the BOJ decision to hold rates steady and comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda .

The widely expected BOJ decision underscored policymakers' preference to spend more time gauging how mounting global economic risks from higher US tariffs could affect Japan's fragile recovery.

"The decision to leave monetary policy unchanged itself is not a surprise, so its impact on exchange rates is limited. However, the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement seems to have led financial markets to initially interpret that the BOJ (did not consider) bringing forward a rate hike," said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC.

Adding to nervousness among investors, Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza overnight, while US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to reach an agreement on a Ukraine ceasefire.

The more risk-sensitive currencies edged lower, with sterling down 0.2% at $1.29795, not far from the previous session's four-month high of $1.3010, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.2% to 103.55, coming off a five-month low of 103.19 on Tuesday.

The dollar has fallen nearly 4% for the month, pressured by Trump's erratic approach to tariffs and as fears mount of a recession in the world's largest economy.

Traders are currently pricing in nearly 60 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the year end.

"The March FOMC meeting will likely be all about policy uncertainty. The Fed will almost certainly stay on hold, emphasising patience over panic," said analysts at Bank of America Securities.

"The (Summary of Economic Projections) forecasts and distribution of risks are both likely to reflect stagflation: weaker growth and higher inflation."