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Dollar Rises ahead of Fed; Turkish Lira Drop Reins in G10 Currencies

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Rises ahead of Fed; Turkish Lira Drop Reins in G10 Currencies

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar rallied on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, but retreated from the day's highs after markets stabilized from an early shock caused by the detention

of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival.

Traders are also digesting the Bank of Japan's earlier decision to hold interest rates steady, while the Fed's policy decision later will be crucial for investors eager to know what the central bank makes of Trump's policies and their impact on the US economy, and how that affects the rate outlook.

Fed policymakers are widely expected to keep rates on hold, and will also release new economic projections at the conclusion of the meeting later in the day, Reuters reported.

Feeding into an earlier rally in the dollar was news out of Turkey which saw the lira briefly tumble by the most in a day on record, rippling through major currencies as investors shifted into safe-haven assets.

By 1226 GMT, the euro was down 0.3% versus the dollar to $1.091, having fallen as much as 0.6% earlier. Even so, it remains near a five-month high of $1.0955 scaled in the previous session.

"The news from Turkey is having an impact on G10 currency markets and risk appetite in general," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

"But I would think some of the initial impact of what's happened will begin to filter out from some of the euro trade once the market has become a bit more accustomed to it."

The yen weakened against the dollar, which rose 0.3% to 149.805 in volatile trade as investors mulled the BOJ decision to hold rates steady and comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda .

The widely expected BOJ decision underscored policymakers' preference to spend more time gauging how mounting global economic risks from higher US tariffs could affect Japan's fragile recovery.

"The decision to leave monetary policy unchanged itself is not a surprise, so its impact on exchange rates is limited. However, the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement seems to have led financial markets to initially interpret that the BOJ (did not consider) bringing forward a rate hike," said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC.

Adding to nervousness among investors, Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza overnight, while US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to reach an agreement on a Ukraine ceasefire.

The more risk-sensitive currencies edged lower, with sterling down 0.2% at $1.29795, not far from the previous session's four-month high of $1.3010, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.2% to 103.55, coming off a five-month low of 103.19 on Tuesday.

The dollar has fallen nearly 4% for the month, pressured by Trump's erratic approach to tariffs and as fears mount of a recession in the world's largest economy.

Traders are currently pricing in nearly 60 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the year end.

"The March FOMC meeting will likely be all about policy uncertainty. The Fed will almost certainly stay on hold, emphasising patience over panic," said analysts at Bank of America Securities.

"The (Summary of Economic Projections) forecasts and distribution of risks are both likely to reflect stagflation: weaker growth and higher inflation."

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Business

Return to Bad Days of Hyperinflation Looms in Venezuela

A man pushes a hand truck loaded with plantains through La Candelaria neighborhood in Caracas on November 13, 2025. (AFP)
A man pushes a hand truck loaded with plantains through La Candelaria neighborhood in Caracas on November 13, 2025. (AFP)
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Return to Bad Days of Hyperinflation Looms in Venezuela

A man pushes a hand truck loaded with plantains through La Candelaria neighborhood in Caracas on November 13, 2025. (AFP)
A man pushes a hand truck loaded with plantains through La Candelaria neighborhood in Caracas on November 13, 2025. (AFP)

Venezuelans are grappling with political and economic chaos, a mass population exodus and fears of a US military attack. Now, their wallets are ever thinner as a return to hyperinflation looms.

Increasingly, people live hand to mouth, buying a tomato here, a few onions there as they manage to scrape together enough bolivars for just the basics.

"If we earn 20 bolivars, we need 50," informal merchant Jacinto Moreno, 64, told AFP in downtown Caracas.

To buy a kilogram of tomatoes, a Venezuelan needs the equivalent of one US dollar. But the average salary per month is only a few hundred dollars.

Reliable economic figures are hard to come by and a large portion of incomes are earned under the table in the informal sector.

"Prices go up every day," lamented Moreno. "Every day."

Venezuela has already had the highest inflation rate in the world, more than once.

Memories are still fresh of a record 130,000 year-on-year rise in prices recorded in 2018, according to official figures -- the peak of a four-year hyperinflationary period that ended in 2021 and pushed millions to emigrate.

Venezuela's central bank has not published inflation figures since October 2024, after President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory in what is widely considered his second stolen election in a row.

According to the leader himself, inflation reached 48 percent in 2024.

The International Monetary Fund projects a 548 percent figure for Venezuela for 2025 and 629 percent for 2026.

Norma Guzman, a 66-year-old who works as an office cleaner, told AFP she can no longer afford to buy groceries monthly or weekly.

Leaving a store with nothing but three tomatoes in a bag, she said "I shop daily" as and when she, her husband and their son manage to put aside money for food.

Maduro blames Venezuela's economic woes squarely on US sanctions.

He also accuses Washington, which has deployed a fleet of warships in the Caribbean in a stated anti-drug operation, of seeking to depose him and seize the formerly rich petrostate's vast oil deposits.

Maduro has said Venezuela will register GDP growth of over nine percent in 2025. The IMF estimates 0.5 percent.

Colombian-based Venezuelan economist Oscar Torrealba is among those who expect inflation to soar above 800 percent -- higher than IMF projections.

"This undoubtedly brings us much closer to a hyperinflationary scenario," he told AFP.

For Torrealba, hyperinflation is official once prices rise by more than 50 percent for three consecutive months.

But definitions vary, and for other experts an annual rate of 500 percent, such as predicted by the IMF, already amounts to hyperinflation.

Few economists still living in Venezuela dare to publicly challenge the official line, especially after several of their peers, including a former finance minister, were detained this year.

The arrests were never officially announced but coincided with a series of police operations against the publication of parallel exchange rates on web pages that were subsequently removed.

For now, the steep price rises have not resulted in product shortages as they did a few years ago, when people queued for hours to just to buy a small bag of coffee or sugar.

Maduro at the time responded by decriminalizing use of the US dollar, which became Venezuela's de facto currency, as well as halting money printing and relaxing exchange controls.

Measured in dollar prices, economist Torrealba said Venezuela's inflation hit 80 percent year-on-year in October.

The country is running low on the greenbacks used for a big portion of purchases, and which many Venezuelans try to save as insurance against bolivar devaluation.

A major source of foreign currency used to be US oil giant Chevron, which continues to operate under a special license despite sanctions but no longer pays royalties in cash. It pays in crude, instead, which the state sells on at a discount.

With fewer dollars in the market, the gap between the official exchange rate and the informal one is now over 60 percent, according to analysts.

Business

Trump Cuts Tariffs on Beef, Coffee and Other Foods as Inflation Concerns Mount

In this photo illustration, coffee beans are displayed on November 13, 2025 in San Anselmo, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
In this photo illustration, coffee beans are displayed on November 13, 2025 in San Anselmo, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
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Trump Cuts Tariffs on Beef, Coffee and Other Foods as Inflation Concerns Mount

In this photo illustration, coffee beans are displayed on November 13, 2025 in San Anselmo, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
In this photo illustration, coffee beans are displayed on November 13, 2025 in San Anselmo, California. (Getty Images/AFP)

US President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries.

The new exemptions - which took effect retroactively at midnight on Thursday - mark a sharp reversal for Trump, who has long insisted that the sweeping import duties he imposed earlier this year are not fueling inflation.

"They may in some cases" raise prices, Trump said of his tariffs when asked about the move aboard Air Force One on Friday evening. But he insisted that overall, the US has "virtually no inflation."

Democrats have won a string of victories in state and local elections in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, where growing voter concerns about affordability, including high food prices, were a key topic.

Trump also told reporters aboard Air Force One that he would move forward with a $2,000 payment to lower- and middle-income Americans that would be funded by tariff revenues next year sometime.

"The tariffs allow us to give a dividend if we want to do that. Now we're going to do a dividend and we're also reducing debt," he said.

The Trump administration announced framework trade deals on Thursday that, once finalized, will eliminate tariffs on certain foods and other imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala and El Salvador, with US officials eyeing additional agreements before year's end.

Friday's list includes products US consumers routinely purchase to feed their families at home, many of which have seen double-digit year-over-year price increases. It includes over 200 items ranging from oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers.

The White House, in a fact sheet on the order, said it came on the heels of "significant progress the President has made in securing more reciprocal terms for our bilateral trade relationships."

It said Trump decided certain food items could be exempted since they were not grown or processed in the United States, and given the conclusion of nine framework deals, two final agreements on reciprocal trade, and two investment deals.

Ground beef, as of the latest available data for September, was nearly 13% more expensive, according to Consumer Price Index data, and steaks cost almost 17% more than a year ago. Increases for both were the largest in more than three years, dating back to when inflation was nearing its peak under Trump's predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden.

Although the US is a major beef producer, a persistent shortage of cattle in recent years has kept beef prices high.

Banana prices were about 7% higher, while tomatoes were 1% higher. Overall costs for food consumed at home were up 2.7% in September.

The tariff exemptions won praise from many industry groups, while some expressed disappointment that their products were excluded from the exemptions.

"Today’s action should help consumers, whose morning cup of coffee will hopefully become more affordable, as well as US manufacturers, which utilize many of these products in their supply chains and production lines," FMI-Food Industry Association president Leslie Sarasin said in a statement.

Asked if further changes were planned, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "I don't think it'll be necessary."

"We just did a little bit of a rollback," he said. "The prices of coffee were a little bit high, now they'll be on the low side in a very short period."

NEW FOCUS ON AFFORDABILITY

Trump has upended the global trading system by imposing a 10% base tariff on imports from every country, plus additional specific duties that vary from state to state.

Trump has focused squarely on the issue of affordability in recent weeks, while insisting that any higher costs were triggered by policies enacted by Biden, and not his own tariff policies.

Consumers have remained frustrated over high grocery prices, which economists say have been fueled in part by import tariffs and could rise further next year as companies start passing on the full brunt of the import duties.

The top Democrat on the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, Richard Neal, said the Trump administration was "putting out a fire that they started and claiming it as progress."

"The Trump Administration is finally admitting publicly what we've all known from the start: Trump's Trade War is hiking costs on people," Neal said in a statement. "Since implementing these tariffs, inflation has increased and manufacturing has contracted month after month."

Business

Aficionados Fret as Trump Moves to Make Pasta Great Again

Boxes of imported Italian pasta are seen on shelves, Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025, in Detroit. (AP)
Boxes of imported Italian pasta are seen on shelves, Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025, in Detroit. (AP)
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Aficionados Fret as Trump Moves to Make Pasta Great Again

Boxes of imported Italian pasta are seen on shelves, Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025, in Detroit. (AP)
Boxes of imported Italian pasta are seen on shelves, Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025, in Detroit. (AP)

Steel: 50%. Copper: 50%. Cars: up to 25%. But an even bigger Trump-era levy looms: 107 % on Italian pasta.

Mamma mia.

It started with the US Commerce Department launching what it says was a routine antidumping review, based on allegations Italian pasta makers sold product into the US at below-market prices and undercut local competitors. That has led to a threat of 92% duties, which would come on top of the 15% tariff President Donald Trump’s administration imposed on European exports generally.

The news sent shockwaves through Italy, where 13 producers would be subject to the whopping one-two punch. They say sales in their second biggest export market would shrivel if prices to American consumers more than double. And while the measure would hardly prompt pasta shortages, it still has perplexed importers like Sal Auriemma, whose shop in Philadelphia’s Italian market, Claudio Specialty Food, has been operating for over 60 years.

"Pasta is a pretty small sector to pick on. I mean, there’s a lot bigger things to pick on," said Auriemma, pointing to luxury items as an alternative.

But pasta? "It’s basic food," he said. "Something’s got to be sacred."

Pasta adds heft to Italy's economy

Italy is a nation of avid pasta eaters. Less known is that most of the tortellini, spaghetti and rigatoni its factories churn out gets sent abroad. The US accounts for about 15% of its €4 billion ($4.65 billion) in exports, making it Italy’s largest market after Germany, data from farmers’ association Coldiretti show.

The punitive pasta premium has become a cause célèbre for Italy’s politicians, executives and economists. Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida told lawmakers in mid-October that the government was working with the European Commission and engaging in diplomatic efforts, while supporting the companies’ legal actions to oppose US sanctions.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic addressed reporters in Rome last month, stressing the lack of evidence backing the US decision and calling the combined 107% levy "unacceptable."

Margherita Mastromauro, president of the pasta makers sector of Unione Italiana Food, told The Associated Press that prices for Italian pasta in the US remain high, and certainly higher than American-made rivals — undermining any dumping claim.

She said that the measures could deal a fatal blow to small- and medium-sized producers. Lucio Miranda, president of consultancy group Export USA, agreed.

"A duty rate of 107% would definitely kill this flow of export," Miranda, who is Italian, said by phone from New York. "It’s not going to be something that you can just dump on the consumer and move on, life continues. It will definitely be a deal killer."

The Commerce Department’s investigation started in 2024 after complaints from Missouri-based 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, which owns pasta brand Ronzoni, and Illinois-based Winland Foods, whose multiple brands include Prince, Mueller’s and Wacky Mac.

The office’s review focused on La Molisana and Garofalo, chosen as primary respondents because they are Italy’s two largest exporters, the Commerce Department said in an emailed statement. Any sale price below either producers’ costs or the price they charge in the Italian market would be considered dumping, in line with numerous other reviews of Italian pasta since 1996, it said.

The two companies presented information incorrectly or withheld it, significantly impeding analysis, according to the Commerce Department. And in the face of these alleged deficiencies, the office presented its 92% duty estimate, which it extended to 11 other companies based on an assumption the two companies’ behavior was representative.

"After they screwed up their initial responses, the Commerce Department explained to them what the problems were and asked them to fix those problems; they didn’t," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in an emailed response to the AP's questions. "And then Commerce communicated the requirements again, and they didn’t answer for a third time."

La Molisana declined to comment when contacted by the AP. Garofalo didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The sanctions would be applied not just to imports going forward, but also the 12 months through June 2024, according to the Commerce Department. It added that only 16% of total Italian pasta imports may be affected. Its final decision is scheduled for Jan. 2, which could be extended by 60 days.

'Completely senseless'

A little over an hour’s drive northeast from Naples is Benevento, a sleepy hilltop town of 55,000 people famed for its ancient Roman theater and Aglianico red wine. It’s also home to Pasta Rummo, founded in 1846, which prides itself on its seven-phase, "slow work" production method.

CEO Cosimo Rummo is outraged by the threat to his company’s annual 20 million euros in exports to the US.

"These tariffs are completely senseless," Rummo said in a phone interview. "These are fast-moving consumer goods ... Who would ever buy a pack of pasta that costs 10 dollars?"

He added that he has no intention to start producing pasta stateside, as some companies have done and so would be spared the prospective levy. That includes Barilla, which for decades has been the main Italian pasta brand in the US and now has large-scale production facilities there.

An unsavory prospect

When the transatlantic imbroglio started simmering, Robert Tramonte of Arlington, Virginia sought assurances. The owner of The Italian Store called his supplier, who told him there’s enough pasta inventory stocked in the warehouse to keep prices steady until Easter.

Tramonte’s clients count on him for top-shelf product and he was relieved that, at least for the time being, they won’t have to shell out for the real deal. Or worse -- perish the thought! -- purchase made-in-America pasta.

"They’ve tried to make Italian products and use the same ingredients, but the source wasn’t Italy," he said. "And they just didn’t taste the same."