Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar inched up on Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut rates further this year due to uncertainties around US tariffs, while the pound slipped ahead of the Bank of England's policy decision.

The Swiss franc weakened slightly after the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Swedish crown was steady after its central bank held rates steady.

US policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they expect slower economic growth and higher inflation. On Wednesday, the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, Reuters reported.

"We're not going to be in any hurry to move," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. "Our current policy stance is well-positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face ... The right thing to do is to wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing."

Powell's comments and the Fed statement underscored the challenge faced by policymakers as they navigate President Donald Trump's plans to levy duties on imports from US trading partners and the impact on the economy.

"There is probably not enough in the Fed communication to build fresh USD shorts," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

Traders are pricing in 63 basis points of Fed easing this year, about two rate reductions of 25 bps each, and around a 50% chance of a third. Markets are fully pricing in the next cut in July, LSEG data showed.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, was 0.3% higher at 103.69 but stayed close to the five-month low of 103.19 touched earlier this week. The euro was down 0.3% at $1.0871.

EUROPE'S CENTRAL BANK BONANZA

Sterling touched a more than four-month high of $1.3015 in early Asian hours before retreating back to $1.2975 ahead of the BoE policy decision, where the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold.

With UK inflation stuck firmly above its 2% target, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by less than the European Central Bank and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country's sluggish growth rate.

Data on Thursday showed pay growth was little changed and other signs of stability in the jobs market.

"The latest labour market data won't do much to build conviction amongst the Monetary Policy Committee as they continue to balance a weak economy and sticky inflation," said Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club.

"A decision to hold the bank rate later today seems inevitable."

The Swiss franc weakened slightly against the dollar and euro after its central bank cut its interest rate to 0.25%, its fifth successive cut, and said it was prepared to intervene in the FX market as necessary.

In a busy day for central banks, Sweden's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected.

The Swedish crown was slightly weaker against the stronger dollar and up on the softer euro. The crown has been the best performing major currency against the dollar this year on expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine and improved domestic economic prospects.

The yen was a shade stronger at 148.54 per dollar, a day after the Bank of Japan kept rates steady and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further hikes will depend on the fallout from US tariffs.

The yen has risen nearly 6% this year as traders bet that the Japanese central bank will hike rates this year as well as benefiting from geopolitical tensions leading to safe asset flows.

Elsewhere, Turkey's lira was steady at 38 per dollar after plunging to a record low of 42 per dollar on Wednesday as authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6312 after Australian employment posted a surprise fall in February, ending a strong run of impressive gains, as the red-hot labour market loosened a little, although the jobless rate remained steady.

The New Zealand dollar fell 1% to $0.5760 even as data showed the economy crawled out of a recession and grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.7% last quarter, although underlying details were soft.



Trump Set to Lead Largest-Ever US Delegation to World Economic Forum in Davos Next Week

This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
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Trump Set to Lead Largest-Ever US Delegation to World Economic Forum in Davos Next Week

This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump will return to the World Economic Forum's annual meeting of business, political and cultural elites in Davos, Switzerland next week, leading a record-large US delegation, organizers said Tuesday.

The Geneva-based think tank says Trump, whose assertive foreign policy on issues as diverse as Venezuela and Greenland in recent months has stirred concerns among US friends and foes alike, will be accompanied by five Cabinet secretaries and other top officials for the event running from Monday through Jan. 23.

A total of 850 CEOs and chairs of the world's top companies will be among the 3,000 participants from 130 countries expected in the Alpine resort this year, the forum says.

Forum President Borge Brende says six of seven G7 leaders — including Trump — will attend, as well as presidents Volodymyr Zelenskky of Ukraine, Ahmed al-Sharaa of Syria and others. A total of 64 heads of state or government are expected so far — also a record — though that number could increase before the start of the event, he said.

China's delegation will be headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng, Beijing's top trade official, Brende said.

The forum, which held its first annual meeting in 1971, has long been a hub of dialogue, debate and deal-making. Trump has already attended twice while president and was beamed in by video last year just days after being inaugurated for his second term.

Critics call it a venue for the world’s elites to hobnob and do business that sometimes comes at the expense of workers, the impoverished or people on the margins of society. The forum counters that its stated goal is “improving the state of the world” and insists many advocacy groups, academics and cultural leaders have an important role too.


World Bank: Global Economy Shows Resilience Amid Historic Trade, Policy Uncertainty

A woman places coins inside a red wallet in Germany. (dpa)
A woman places coins inside a red wallet in Germany. (dpa)
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World Bank: Global Economy Shows Resilience Amid Historic Trade, Policy Uncertainty

A woman places coins inside a red wallet in Germany. (dpa)
A woman places coins inside a red wallet in Germany. (dpa)

The global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. Global growth is projected to remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027, an upward revision from the June forecast.

The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth, especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026. Even so, if these forecasts hold, the 2020s are on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s. The sluggish pace is widening the gap in living standards across the world, the report finds: at the end of 2025, nearly all advanced economies enjoyed per capita incomes exceeding their 2019 levels, but about one in four developing economies had lower per capita incomes.

In 2025, growth was supported by a surge in trade ahead of policy changes and swift readjustments in global supply chains. These boosts are expected to fade in 2026 as trade and domestic demand soften. However, the easing global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help cushion the slowdown, according to the report. Global inflation is projected to edge down to 2.6% in 2026, reflecting softer labor markets and lower energy prices. Growth is expected to pick up in 2027 as trade flows adjust and policy uncertainty diminishes.

“With each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth and seemingly more resilient to policy uncertainty,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets.”

“Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s, while carrying record levels of public and private debt. To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalize private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”

In 2026, growth in developing economies is expected to slow to 4% from 4.2% in 2025 before edging up to 4.1% in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilize, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen. Growth is projected to be higher in low-income countries, reaching an average of 5.6% over 2026-27, buoyed by firming domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation. However, this will not be sufficient to narrow the income gap between developing and advanced economies.

Per capita income growth in developing economies is projected to be 3% in 2026 - about a percentage point below its 2000-2019 average. At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to be only 12% of the level in advanced economies.

These trends could intensify the job-creation challenge confronting developing economies, where 1.2 billion young people will reach working age over the next decade. Overcoming the jobs challenge will require a comprehensive policy effort centered on three pillars.

The first is strengthening physical, digital, and human capital to raise productivity and employability. The second is improving the business environment by enhancing policy credibility and regulatory certainty so firms can expand. The third is mobilizing private capital at scale to support investment. Together, these measures can help shift job creation toward more productive and formal employment, supporting income growth and poverty alleviation.

In addition, developing economies need to bolster their fiscal sustainability, which has been eroded in recent years by overlapping shocks, growing development needs, and rising debt-servicing costs. A special-focus chapter of the report provides a comprehensive analysis of the use of fiscal rules by developing economies, which set clear limits on government borrowing and spending to help manage public finances. These rules are generally linked to stronger growth, higher private investment, more stable financial sectors, and a greater capacity to cope with external shocks.

“With public debt in emerging and developing economies at its highest level in more than half a century, restoring fiscal credibility has become an urgent priority,” said M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.

“Well-designed fiscal rules can help governments stabilize debt, rebuild policy buffers, and respond more effectively to shocks. But rules alone are not enough: credibility, enforcement, and political commitment ultimately determine whether fiscal rules deliver stability and growth.”

More than half of developing economies now have at least one fiscal rule in place. These can include limits on fiscal deficits, public debt, government expenditures, or revenue collection. Developing economies that adopt fiscal rules typically see their budget balance improve by 1.4 percentage points of GDP after five years, once interest payments and the ups and downs of the business cycle are accounted for.

Use of fiscal rules also increases by 9 percentage points the likelihood of a multi-year improvement in budget balances. However, the medium- and long-term benefits of fiscal rules depend heavily on the strength of institutions, the economic context in which the rules are introduced, and how the rules are designed, the report finds.


Saudi Industry Minister Discusses Automotive Manufacturing Cooperation with China's BYD

The Saudi and Chinese delegations meet in Riyadh on Tuesday. (SPA)
The Saudi and Chinese delegations meet in Riyadh on Tuesday. (SPA)
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Saudi Industry Minister Discusses Automotive Manufacturing Cooperation with China's BYD

The Saudi and Chinese delegations meet in Riyadh on Tuesday. (SPA)
The Saudi and Chinese delegations meet in Riyadh on Tuesday. (SPA)

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef held talks in Riyadh on Tuesday with Chinese company BYD Founder and Chairman Wang Chuanfu to discuss cooperation in automotive manufacturing and the transfer of advanced vehicle technologies to the Kingdom.

They explored ways to strengthen industrial cooperation and expand promising investment opportunities to localize the automotive industry in the Kingdom, with particular focus on electric vehicle manufacturing to meet growing domestic demand and reinforce Saudi Arabia’s position as a leading regional and global hub for automotive production.

Discussions tackled the incentives and enablers offered to investors in high-value industries, including the automotive sector, as well as the Kingdom’s significant investments in electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

The meeting highlighted the objectives of the comprehensive strategy for the mining and mineral industries, which emphasizes support for the electric vehicle ecosystem and the development of local supply chains for battery manufacturing and advanced materials.

These efforts help in localizing the automotive industry and advancing the goals of Saudi Vision 2030 to diversify the national economy.