Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar inched up on Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut rates further this year due to uncertainties around US tariffs, while the pound slipped ahead of the Bank of England's policy decision.

The Swiss franc weakened slightly after the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Swedish crown was steady after its central bank held rates steady.

US policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they expect slower economic growth and higher inflation. On Wednesday, the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, Reuters reported.

"We're not going to be in any hurry to move," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. "Our current policy stance is well-positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face ... The right thing to do is to wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing."

Powell's comments and the Fed statement underscored the challenge faced by policymakers as they navigate President Donald Trump's plans to levy duties on imports from US trading partners and the impact on the economy.

"There is probably not enough in the Fed communication to build fresh USD shorts," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

Traders are pricing in 63 basis points of Fed easing this year, about two rate reductions of 25 bps each, and around a 50% chance of a third. Markets are fully pricing in the next cut in July, LSEG data showed.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, was 0.3% higher at 103.69 but stayed close to the five-month low of 103.19 touched earlier this week. The euro was down 0.3% at $1.0871.

EUROPE'S CENTRAL BANK BONANZA

Sterling touched a more than four-month high of $1.3015 in early Asian hours before retreating back to $1.2975 ahead of the BoE policy decision, where the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold.

With UK inflation stuck firmly above its 2% target, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by less than the European Central Bank and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country's sluggish growth rate.

Data on Thursday showed pay growth was little changed and other signs of stability in the jobs market.

"The latest labour market data won't do much to build conviction amongst the Monetary Policy Committee as they continue to balance a weak economy and sticky inflation," said Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club.

"A decision to hold the bank rate later today seems inevitable."

The Swiss franc weakened slightly against the dollar and euro after its central bank cut its interest rate to 0.25%, its fifth successive cut, and said it was prepared to intervene in the FX market as necessary.

In a busy day for central banks, Sweden's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected.

The Swedish crown was slightly weaker against the stronger dollar and up on the softer euro. The crown has been the best performing major currency against the dollar this year on expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine and improved domestic economic prospects.

The yen was a shade stronger at 148.54 per dollar, a day after the Bank of Japan kept rates steady and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further hikes will depend on the fallout from US tariffs.

The yen has risen nearly 6% this year as traders bet that the Japanese central bank will hike rates this year as well as benefiting from geopolitical tensions leading to safe asset flows.

Elsewhere, Turkey's lira was steady at 38 per dollar after plunging to a record low of 42 per dollar on Wednesday as authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6312 after Australian employment posted a surprise fall in February, ending a strong run of impressive gains, as the red-hot labour market loosened a little, although the jobless rate remained steady.

The New Zealand dollar fell 1% to $0.5760 even as data showed the economy crawled out of a recession and grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.7% last quarter, although underlying details were soft.



Anger Against Trump Is Forecast to Cost the US International Visitors 

Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)
Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)
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Anger Against Trump Is Forecast to Cost the US International Visitors 

Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)
Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)

Anger over the Trump administration’s tariffs and rhetoric will likely cause international travel to the US to fall even further than expected this year, an influential travel forecasting company said Tuesday.

Tourism Economics said it expects the number of people arriving in the US from abroad to decline by 9.4% this year. That’s almost twice the 5% drop the company forecast at the end of February.

At the beginning of the year, Tourism Economics predicted a booming year for international travel to the US, with visits up 9% from 2024.

But Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said high-profile lockups of European tourists at the US border in recent weeks have chilled international travelers. Potential visitors have also been angered by tariffs, Trump's stance toward Canada and Greenland, and his heated White House exchange with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“With each policy development, each rhetorical missive, we’re just seeing unforced error after unforced error in the administration,” Sacks said. “It has a direct impact on international travel to the US.”

The decline will have consequences for airlines, hotels, national parks and other sites frequented by tourists.

Tourism Economics expects travel from Canada to plummet 20% this year, a decline that will be acutely felt in border states like New York and Michigan but also popular tourist destinations like California, Nevada and Florida.

The US Travel Association, a trade group, has also warned about Canadians staying away. Even a 10% reduction in travel from Canada could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses, the group said in February.

Other travel-related companies have noted worrying signs. At its annual shareholder meeting on Monday, Air Canada said bookings to the US were down 10% for the April-September period compared to the same period a year ago.

Sacks said he now expects foreign visitors to spend $9 billion less in the US compared to 2024, when international tourism to the country rose 9.1%.

“The irony is that the tariffs are being put in place to help right the trade deficit, but they're harming the trade balance by causing fewer international travelers to come and spend money here,” Sacks said.

Sacks said international arrivals had been getting close to returning to 2019 numbers, before the coronavirus pandemic halted most travel. Now he thinks they won't get back to that level until 2029.