عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Business

Oil Slips as Investors Monitor Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks

Representation photo: The sun sets behind burning gas flares at the Dora (Daura) Oil Refinery Complex in Baghdad on December 22, 2024. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)
Representation photo: The sun sets behind burning gas flares at the Dora (Daura) Oil Refinery Complex in Baghdad on December 22, 2024. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)
TT
TT

Oil Slips as Investors Monitor Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks

Representation photo: The sun sets behind burning gas flares at the Dora (Daura) Oil Refinery Complex in Baghdad on December 22, 2024. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)
Representation photo: The sun sets behind burning gas flares at the Dora (Daura) Oil Refinery Complex in Baghdad on December 22, 2024. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)

Oil prices slipped on Monday as investors assessed the outlook for ceasefire talks aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil to global markets.

Brent crude futures were down 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.91 a barrel by 0409 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.08, Reuters reported.

Both benchmarks settled higher on Friday and recorded a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh US sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ producer group raised expectations of tighter supply.

A US delegation will seek progress toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of violence in the war in Ukraine when it meets for talks with Russian officials on Monday, after discussions with diplomats from Ukraine on Sunday.

"Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of US sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

"But investors are holding back on large positions as they evaluate future OPEC+ production trends beyond April," he added.

OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia - on Thursday issued a new schedule for seven member nations to make further oil output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed levels, which will more than overtake the monthly production hikes the group plans to introduce next month.

"Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks raise the prospects of increased Russian exports on an eventual resolution, while the OPEC+ production hike as early as April points to further supply additions, which may be difficult to be fully absorbed by demand factors," said Singapore-based IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day, equal to about 5.7% of global supply, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.

It confirmed on March 3 that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd from April, citing healthier market fundamentals.

Market participants are also monitoring the impact from new Iran-related US sanctions announced last week.

Market sentiment toward oil prices has improved recently given heightened supply risks stemming from US sanctions on Iranian exports and some optimism that US reciprocal tariffs may be less severe than feared, though the broader demand-supply outlook still remains mixed, IG's Yeap said.

Iranian oil shipments to China are set to fall in the near-term after new US sanctions on a refiner and tankers, driving up shipping costs, but traders said they expect buyers to find workarounds to keep at least some volume flowing.

Most Viewed

 
 
Business

Türkiye Central Bank Holds Rates at 37% as it Eyes Iran War Fallout

Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
TT
TT

Türkiye Central Bank Holds Rates at 37% as it Eyes Iran War Fallout

Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)

Türkiye's central bank held its key interest rate at 37% as expected on Wednesday, deciding not to hike but warning that fallout from the Iran war could yet change the inflation outlook.

It was the second straight policy meeting at which the bank held steady despite some expectations that it could tighten, suggesting it was preparing to stand pat well into the summer, analysts said.

The central bank also did not adjust its overnight lending and borrowing rates from 40% and 35.5% respectively. Since the war started in late February, it has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps that pushed the lira overnight rate up to the 40% limit - moves that prompted some analysts to predict a 300-point hike this week.

The bank said it is closely monitoring any "potential second-round effects" on inflation, for which "leading indicators suggest a slight increase in the underlying trend in April".

"Amid geopolitical developments and the resulting uncertainties, energy prices remain elevated and exhibit notable volatility," its policy committee added.

In a Reuters poll, 19 of 23 economists predicted no change to borrowing costs, while four forecast a rate hike. The war-related surge in energy prices has rattled import-heavy economies like Türkiye where inflation was 30.87% last month, but where expectations have risen. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump extended the war ceasefire indefinitely.

The ceasefire allowed the central bank "to refrain from tightening," William Jackson, economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "So long as energy prices don't spike again, we think the CBRT will opt to leave interest rates on hold for at least a few more months."

Economists generally anticipate that rate cuts may resume in September. The Reuters poll predicted rates would be cut to only 32.75% by year-end. A separate poll found end-2026 consumer price inflation at 27.53%, compared with 25.38% in a previous poll.

In its quarterly inflation report in February - before the war began - the central bank had kept its end-2026 interim inflation target at 16%, while lifting its forecast range to 15-21% from 13-19% previously.

A year ago, the central bank temporarily reversed course and hiked rates in the face of political instability that rattled markets, though it returned to rate cuts by mid-2025.

Business

Oil Prices Rise despite US-Iran Ceasefire Extension

FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
TT
TT

Oil Prices Rise despite US-Iran Ceasefire Extension

FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices edged higher Wednesday while Europe's main stock markets eased on uncertainty surrounding the prospect of resumed Mideast peace talks following an extension to the US-Iran ceasefire.

Asian equities had a mixed trading day as investors wait for clarity but broadly expect that both US President Donald Trump and the authorities in Iran want to end a war that has sent oil and gas prices soaring.

"The ceasefire extension hasn't done much to calm nerves given that worries remain about the impact of the energy squeeze on the global economy," said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, AFP reported. 

"Shipments from the Middle East are in limbo and a resolution to the conflict remains elusive, and the price of Brent crude, the benchmark, reflects this."

Brent North Sea was once more closing in on $100 a barrel while main US contract, West Texas Intermediate, traded back above $90.

Iranian gunboats attacked at least one container ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, maritime agencies said, despite US President Donald Trump announcing he was extending a ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Trump said the US blockade of Iran's ports would continue while Pakistani mediators try to revive dialogue.

Tehran has all but shut the strait in the seven weeks since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran that plunged the Middle East into war, with higher energy prices threatening economic growth worldwide.

"The US and Iran may be trying to shore up leverage and playing a game of who blinks first," said Christopher Wong, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

"Whatever the outcome, the suspense in the interim may see risk appetite being curtailed," he said.

Away from the war, investors were keeping tabs on the confirmation hearing by senators of Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Warsh told lawmakers he would not be controlled by the president as he fielded questions on his assets and central bank independence during his first hearing.

Trump has assailed Powell for not cutting interest rates more aggressively, and told CNBC on Tuesday that he would be disappointed if the new chair did not swiftly lower borrowing costs despite rising inflation.

In Britain, official data showed that annual inflation jumped to 3.3 percent in March as the Middle East war sent oil and gas prices surging.

 

 

 

Business

PIF Anchors State Street’s Newly Launched Saudi Equity ETF

Officials from PIF and State Street IM (Saudi PIF)
Officials from PIF and State Street IM (Saudi PIF)
TT
TT

PIF Anchors State Street’s Newly Launched Saudi Equity ETF

Officials from PIF and State Street IM (Saudi PIF)
Officials from PIF and State Street IM (Saudi PIF)

The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and State Street Investment Management (State Street IM), one of the world’s largest asset managers, launched on Thursday the State Street Saudi Arabia Enhanced Active Equity (SAQL) with PIF as anchor investor.

The fund actively invests in equities of companies in Saudi Arabia using a quantitative multi-factor stock selection model, PIF said in a statement.

SAQL has its primary listing on the Xetra exchange in Germany and is cross listed on the LSE in the United Kingdom, where a bell ringing ceremony was held. The fund will be available to investors in both markets as well as investors across other key markets in Europe, the statement said.

The investment marks another step in PIF’s strategy to further deepen and diversify the Saudi capital market by attracting international capital flows, empowering financial institutions, broadening financing options for the private sector and introducing new products.

The newly launched fund is the second State Street IM ETF in which PIF has made an anchor investment, and the fifth ETF investment for PIF across nine global markets with leading international asset managers. New and innovative Saudi-focused products were listed in Hong Kong, London, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Italy and Singapore.

“PIF is further strengthening Saudi Arabia’s capital market ecosystem, working with our partners to open gateways for international investors, enable access and drive global capital inflow into the country,” said Deputy Governor and Head of MENA Investments at PIF Yazeed Al-Humied.

“Our continued partnership with State Street IM reinforces a shared commitment to enhance and diversify the product range, to present new opportunities for international investors into the Saudi market and unlock capital pools,” he said.

“The launch of this ETF further deepens the Saudi market and builds on a series of PIF-anchored ETF listings across international markets, cementing PIF’s role in driving increased product diversification to enhance liquidity and fulfill market needs,” Al-Humied added.

Chief Executive Officer of State Street Investment Management Yie-Hsin Hung praised Saudi Arabia’s "success story," adding: “At State Street, as with PIF, innovation is in our DNA and we’re pleased to offer a new product in this same vein, drawing on our decades of experience and commitment to quality to underpin an exciting new offering, anchored by PIF.”

Quantitative funds, such as SAQL, use mathematical modeling, algorithmic, and data-driven methods to manage portfolios. The Saudi capital market has evolved beyond legacy sectors, with maturation of market structure and data quality – enabling SAQL to use a systematic active approach when investing in Saudi equity securities.

SAQL provides an opportunity for international investors to obtain investment exposure to this rapidly evolving economy.

The fund is registered for sale in Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK.