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Gold Rises as Fears Mount over Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Plans

FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo
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Gold Rises as Fears Mount over Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Plans

FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)/File Photo

Gold prices rose on Thursday as US auto tariffs ratcheted up global trade tensions ahead of an April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs from the world's largest economy.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,028.65 an ounce, as of 0650 GMT. US gold futures gained 0.5% to $3,036.10.

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week, widening the global trade war.

Investors feared that Trump's reciprocal tariffs, expected to take effect on April 2, might fuel inflation, slow economic growth and heighten trade tensions.

Concerns over Trump's tariff policies catapulted gold to a record high of $3,057.21 on March 20.

Aakash Doshi, global head of gold at SPDR ETF Strategy, expects gold will breach $3,100 in the second quarter and "the market could potentially push another 8%-10% higher by end-2025 if the current macro and physical market tailwinds sustain for the yellow metal."

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce from $3,100, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand.

Investors await the US personal consumption expenditures data, due on Friday, which could shed more light on the US interest rate path.

"The March high near $3,057 is immediate resistance for gold prices. The $3,100 figure follows next," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Last week, the US central bank held benchmark interest rate steady, but indicated it could cut rates later this year. Non-yielding bullion tends to thrive in a low interest-rate environment.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that while the US central bank has made a lot of progress bringing inflation down, "we have more work to do" to get inflation to the Fed's 2% target.

Spot silver rose 0.1% to $33.73 an ounce, platinum fell 0.4% to $970.34 and palladium lost 0.5% to $963.03.

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Israel-Iran Conflict Disrupts Air Travel in the Region

Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
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Israel-Iran Conflict Disrupts Air Travel in the Region

Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)

The escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran is creating mounting challenges for Middle Eastern airlines, including airspace closures and rerouted flight paths, all of which are driving up operational costs.

While Gulf carriers are relying on alternative routes - albeit more expensive ones - private airlines in neighboring countries face the risk of exiting the market altogether if the crisis persists.

Countries geographically close to the conflict, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, are increasingly concerned about the conflict’s deepening impact on the civil aviation sector, which represents one of the most sensitive branches of their economies. The threat is no longer confined to security concerns alone, but is now hitting the economic core of these nations.

Dr. Hussein Al-Zahrani, an aviation investor, told Asharq Al-Awsat that countries geographically tied to the Iran-Israel conflict are already facing direct complications in the aviation sector. These include airport closures and rerouted flights, such as the diversion of Jordanian planes to Egypt’s Cairo and Sharm El Sheikh, or grounding aircraft entirely.

Al-Zahrani noted that national carriers in these countries, particularly state-owned airlines, are more likely to receive government support to help them weather the storm. However, the limited number of private airlines operating in these regions may not survive a prolonged crisis.

Iraq has approximately five carriers, Lebanon one, Syria two (one of which is government-owned), and Jordan three; all of which could suffer significantly if the conflict drags on.

In contrast, Gulf airlines have contingency plans in place, Al-Zahrani said, although they are not immune to the repercussions.

Increased flight distances and restricted airspace will present logistical and financial burdens, though Gulf carriers are more resilient and often absorb the extra costs themselves. In many cases, rerouting results in only minor extensions - around 20 minutes - which allows airlines to maintain stable pricing.

He cited exceptions, such as some northern-bound Kuwaiti flights to Europe that typically rely on Iraqi airspace. These will now need to reroute via Saudi airspace, then over the Mediterranean to reach Europe, significantly increasing flight durations and operating expenses.

Al-Zahrani also pointed out that many transcontinental flights between East and West, which pass over Saudi and Iraqi airspace, will be disrupted if closures in conflict zones persist. This may force airlines to reschedule, reroute, or even suspend certain long-haul routes if they become economically unfeasible.

Aviation-sector companies are considered foundational contributors to national budgets, particularly in countries where the industry plays a major economic role. According to Al-Zahrani, these entities are typically the first to suffer in the event of military conflicts, especially as oil prices rise and long-haul operations become increasingly expensive.

Observers warn that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz - a vital maritime corridor connecting the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea - it would further heighten concerns for both maritime and air transportation companies, given the anticipated spike in insurance costs and risk premiums should the crisis continue.

Economic analyst Marwan Al-Sharif told Asharq Al-Awsat that airlines may be able to navigate the crisis if it remains short-lived, especially those operating in proximity to the warring parties. However, if the conflict drags on, the resulting losses could grow more severe, weakening the financial viability of many carriers amid rising fuel costs, airspace restrictions, and surging insurance rates.