Trump Tariffs Sow Fears of Trade Wars, Recession and a $2,300 iPhone

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo
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Trump Tariffs Sow Fears of Trade Wars, Recession and a $2,300 iPhone

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

Countries around the world threatened to wage a trade war with the United States as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs fed expectations for a global downturn and sharp price hikes for swathes of goods in the world's biggest consumer market.

The penalties announced by Trump on Wednesday triggered a plunge in world financial markets and drew condemnation from other leaders reckoning with the end of a decades-long era of trade liberalization.

In Japan, one of United States' top trading partners, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that the tariffs had created a "national crisis" as a plunge in banking shares on Friday set Tokyo's stock market on course for its worst week in years.

Investment bank JP Morgan said it now sees a 60% chance of the global economy entering recession by year end, up from 40% previously.

But there were conflicting messages from the White House about whether the tariffs were meant to be permanent or were a tactic to win concessions, with Trump saying they "give us great power to negotiate."

The US tariffs would amount to the highest trade barriers in more than a century: a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher targeted duties on dozens of countries.

That could jack up the price for US shoppers of everything from cannabis to running shoes to Apple's iPhone. A high-end iPhone could cost nearly $2,300 if Apple passes the costs on to consumers, based on projections from Rosenblatt Securities.

Businesses raced to adjust. Automaker Stellantis said it would temporarily lay off US workers and close plants in Canada and Mexico, while General Motors said it would increase US production.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the United States had abandoned its historic role as a champion of international economic cooperation.

"The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday," he said as he announced several countermeasures.

Elsewhere, China vowed retaliation for Trump's 54% tariffs on imports from the world's No. 2 economy, as did the European Union, which faces a 20% duty.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for European countries to suspend investment in the United States.

Other trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, Mexico and India, said they would hold off on any retaliation for now as they seek concessions. Britain's foreign minister said it was working to strike an economic deal with the United States.

But Washington's allies and rivals alike warned of a devastating blow to global trade.

The tariffs "clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth," said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, calling on Washington to work to resolve trade tensions with its partners and reduce uncertainty.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and senior trade adviser Peter Navarro both told cable news programs on Thursday the president would not back off, and that the tariff increases were not a negotiation.

Trump then appeared to contradict them, telling reporters, "The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. Always have. I used it very well in the first administration, as you saw, but now we're taking it to a whole new level."

Stocks suffered a global meltdown, the US dollar crumbled and oil prices were set for their worst week in months as analysts warned the tariffs could dent demand, upend supply chains and hurt corporate profits.

The Dow fell nearly 4%, its biggest one-day percentage loss since June 2020. The S&P 500 lost nearly 5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined nearly 6%, its worst day in percentage terms since the pandemic era of March 2020.

American companies with significant overseas production took a hit. Nike shares lost 14% and Apple fell 9%.

The pain for markets continued into Friday, with Japan's Nikkei set for its biggest weekly drop in five years in a rout led by stocks in Japanese banks, some of the biggest lenders in the world by assets.

Japanese bond yields, meanwhile, fell sharply as investors bet the Bank of Japan may be forced to rethink its plans to raise interest rates.

Trump says the "reciprocal" tariffs are a response to barriers put on US goods, while administration officials said the tariffs would create manufacturing jobs at home and open up export markets abroad, although they cautioned it would take time to see results.

Vice President JD Vance in an interview with Newsmax faulted critics for taking a short-term view.

"That's fundamentally what this is about, the national security of manufacturing and making the things that we need, from steel to pharmaceuticals," Vance said.

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump's on-again, off-again tariff threats have rattled consumer and business confidence. Trump could step back again, as the reciprocal tariffs are not due to take effect until April 9.

"The tariff plan does not appear to be well thought-out. Trade negotiations are a highly technical discipline, and in our view these proposals do not offer a serious basis for negotiations with any country," said James Lucier, founding partner at Capital Alpha.

Economists say the tariffs could reignite inflation, raise the risk of a US recession and boost costs for the average US family by thousands of dollars.

Analysts said the tariffs could also alienate allies in Asia and undercut strategic efforts to contain China.

Trump has slapped a 24% tariff on Japan and a 25% tariff on South Korea, both home to major US military bases. He also hit Taiwan with a 32% tariff as the island faces increased military pressure from China.

Canada and Mexico, the largest US trading partners, were not hit with targeted tariffs on Wednesday, but they already face 25% tariffs on many goods and now face a separate set of tariffs on auto imports.



Saudi Arabia Expands Tourist E-Visa Eligibility to Four More Countries

The tourist visa allows visitors to attend events, perform Umrah, and visit exhibitions and conferences (SPA)
The tourist visa allows visitors to attend events, perform Umrah, and visit exhibitions and conferences (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Expands Tourist E-Visa Eligibility to Four More Countries

The tourist visa allows visitors to attend events, perform Umrah, and visit exhibitions and conferences (SPA)
The tourist visa allows visitors to attend events, perform Umrah, and visit exhibitions and conferences (SPA)

Saudi Arabia has expanded its electronic tourist visa program by adding four countries to the list of eligible nationalities: Mexico, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Ministry of Tourism said the move is part of ongoing efforts to facilitate travel to the Kingdom for visitors from around the world, allowing citizens of the newly added countries to apply electronically for tourist visit visas.

The tourist visa also permits holders to attend events, perform Umrah, visit exhibitions and conferences, and visit relatives and friends, in accordance with applicable regulations and instructions.


50-Year Contracts Open New Horizons for Real Estate Investment in Saudi Arabia

A neighborhood in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
A neighborhood in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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50-Year Contracts Open New Horizons for Real Estate Investment in Saudi Arabia

A neighborhood in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
A neighborhood in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Long-term real estate investment models are opening new opportunities for Saudi Arabia's private sector, as the Kingdom seeks to expand partnerships with investors to develop municipal assets and transform them into mixed-use projects.

The approach is expected to enhance the appeal of the real estate market, create investment opportunities spanning decades, and attract domestic and international capital to urban development. It also aims to improve land-use efficiency, maximize the economic value of municipal assets and increase housing supply.

Riyadh Region Municipality, the Ministry of Municipalities and Housing, and the National Center for Privatization & PPP (NCP) announced the launch of the expression of interest, prequalification and proposal submission phases for a joint land investment project in northern Riyadh.

The project involves developing a plot of municipal land under a 50-year partnership with the private sector, marking the municipality's first initiative under this joint investment model.

The private-sector partner will be responsible for designing, constructing, operating and maintaining all project facilities.

Located on Zaid bin Asim Street, the strategically positioned 30,015-square-meter site benefits from flexible urban planning regulations that allow for mixed-use development, including residential, commercial, office and recreational facilities.

The project aims to deliver high-quality developments that meet growing demand, serve local residents and community needs, and strengthen Riyadh's urban infrastructure.

Long-Term Investment Strategies

Offering investment opportunities through contracts extending up to 50 years represents a shift in how Saudi Arabia develops government-owned real estate assets.

The model gives private-sector investors a longer timeframe to develop projects and implement long-term investment strategies, overcoming some of the limitations associated with short- and medium-term contracts.

It also strengthens investors' ability to undertake financial and operational planning, allowing them to recover development costs and generate investment returns over a longer period.

This could make such opportunities more attractive to real estate companies and institutional investors.

The project forms part of Riyadh Region Municipality's strategy to improve the efficiency of municipal asset management, expand private-sector participation in urban development and attract high-value investments.

These efforts are intended to promote sustainable urban development, keep pace with the capital's rapid growth and advance Saudi Vision 2030 objectives, in line with the municipality's ambition to help create a prosperous, sustainable Riyadh with a higher quality of life.

Project Sustainability

Real estate expert Khaled al-Mobid said the launch of a 50-year investment project in Riyadh's Al-Narjis district represents an important step toward enabling the private sector to develop real estate assets and transform them into sustainable projects with substantial economic value.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he explained that the extended investment period encourages developers to improve construction quality and services while enhancing the financial viability of projects.

He added that the model could help diversify real estate offerings and increase supply in one of the capital's most expensive neighborhoods.

Al-Mobid said the project's significance lies less in its immediate impact on property prices than in its potential to establish a replicable investment model.

Such a model, he noted, could gradually increase supply, strengthen competition and contribute to greater price stability across Riyadh's real estate market.

Diversifying Real Estate Supply

Real estate developer Ahmed Omar Basoudan said the importance of these contracts extends beyond simply making land available to investors.

They also create opportunities to develop integrated real estate assets combining residential, commercial, office and recreational uses, increasing the economic value of land and improving its utilization.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Basoudan explained that bringing design, construction, operation and maintenance together under a single investment framework allows for more integrated developments.

It also creates a stronger link between construction quality, operational efficiency and long-term sustainability.

At the broader market level, he said, the model could help diversify real estate offerings, particularly in major cities experiencing rapid urban expansion and rising demand for residential, commercial and office space.

The participation of new developers and operators could also strengthen competition and improve the quality of projects and services.

Moreover, the approach could create integrated mixed-use urban destinations that meet residents' needs and support economic activity, rather than relying solely on conventional real estate development.

 

Replicating the Model

 

According to Basoudan, the success of this investment model will depend on how effectively contracts are structured, how risks are allocated between government entities and investors, and how clearly development, operation and maintenance obligations are defined.

Equally important, he said, is striking an appropriate balance between investment returns and the public interest.

Basoudan believes extending the model to other municipalities and regions could create an additional channel for attracting domestic and international investment.

It could also strengthen private-sector participation in urban development, in line with Saudi Vision 2030 objectives to diversify the economy and improve the efficiency of government asset management.


Gold Rallies as Dollar, Treasury Yields Soften after US Midterm Results

Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)
Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)
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Gold Rallies as Dollar, Treasury Yields Soften after US Midterm Results

Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)
Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)

Gold climbed to its highest level in over two weeks on Thursday as the fallout from the US midterm election results rippled through the global financial and oil markets.

Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,124.89 per ounce by 0752 GMT. It touched $4,146.63 per ounce, its highest level since October 20, earlier in ‌the session.

Bullion ‌climbed about 3.4% on Wednesday, its biggest ‌daily gain ⁠since August 19.

US ⁠gold futures for December delivery climbed 1.5% to $4,135.40, Reuters said.

A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields have helped gold recover above the key $4,000 level, though holding above that threshold remains crucial for the recovery outlook, said Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com.

"If investment flows and yield movements continue to provide support, gold could stabilize ⁠above $4,000, also opening up an opportunity for a ‌recovery toward $4,200, followed by $4,400."

Oil prices ‌were slightly higher after earlier falling for a fourth day on ‌expectations that the losses US President Donald Trump's Republican Party ‌suffered in congressional elections this week may reduce the risk of further escalation of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Lower energy prices ease inflationary pressures, reducing expectations that the central bank will keep interest rates higher ‌for longer, supporting the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

The dollar slid to its lowest in more ⁠than a ⁠month, and 10-year US Treasury yield fell to its lowest since September 10.

A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.

Market participants now await the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday to further gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

Meanwhile, Citi has a 0-3 month price target of $4,500 per ounce for gold, the brokerage said on Wednesday, as it sees substantial upside potential if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Yemen/Saudi conflict de-escalates.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.8% to $52.63 per ounce, platinum gained 1.2% to $1,514.20 and palladium climbed 2.2% to $1,026.83.