Türkiye's Simsek Says Disinflation to Continue, FX Pass-through Limited

A fisherman feeds cats his recently caught small fish from the Marmara Sea, along the Kadikoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, April 15, 2025. (AP)
A fisherman feeds cats his recently caught small fish from the Marmara Sea, along the Kadikoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, April 15, 2025. (AP)
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Türkiye's Simsek Says Disinflation to Continue, FX Pass-through Limited

A fisherman feeds cats his recently caught small fish from the Marmara Sea, along the Kadikoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, April 15, 2025. (AP)
A fisherman feeds cats his recently caught small fish from the Marmara Sea, along the Kadikoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, April 15, 2025. (AP)

Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Friday that disinflation would continue despite some recent deterioration in expectations, adding that the government still sees inflation ending the year within its target range.

His remarks come a day after the central bank delivered a surprise 350 basis-point rate hike to 46%, reversing a short-lived easing cycle and signaling renewed commitment to tackling inflation.

The move followed weeks of market turmoil triggered by the March arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

"The recent deterioration in expectations may have had some effect, but we believe we will stay within the target by year-end," Simsek said.

The central bank's unexpected hike marked a shift from the easing that began in December, aiming to anchor inflation expectations and stabilize markets.

Economists expect the lira's recent weakening to feed into April and May inflation, though annual inflation slowed to 38.1% in March. The bank's year-end forecast remains at 24%.

Simsek also said the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation would remain limited due to weak domestic demand, and noted that recent financial market volatility could cause a temporary slowdown in economic activity.

"We are approaching a threshold where we can achieve moderate growth without generating a current account deficit," he added.

The lira had plunged to a record low and Turkish assets took a hit before the central bank intervened with reserve sales and tighter funding conditions.

The bank said the recent market turbulence was expected to slightly lift April inflation readings and reiterated that further tightening would be considered if inflation risks persist.



OPEC Expects Solid Second-Half of 2025 for World Economy

FILE PHOTO: People walk past an installation depicting barrel of oil with the logo of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the COP29 United Nations climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemeto/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: People walk past an installation depicting barrel of oil with the logo of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the COP29 United Nations climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemeto/File Photo
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OPEC Expects Solid Second-Half of 2025 for World Economy

FILE PHOTO: People walk past an installation depicting barrel of oil with the logo of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the COP29 United Nations climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemeto/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: People walk past an installation depicting barrel of oil with the logo of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the COP29 United Nations climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemeto/File Photo

OPEC said on Monday it expected the global economy to remain resilient in the second half of this year and trimmed its forecast for growth in oil supply from the United States and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group in 2026.

In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026, after reductions in April. It said the economic outlook was robust despite trade concerns.

“The global economy has outperformed expectations so far in the first half of 2025,” OPEC said in the report.

“This strong base from the first half of 2025 is anticipated to provide support and sufficient momentum into a sound second half of 2025. However, the growth trend is expected to moderate slightly on a quarterly basis,” it added.

In the report, OPEC also said supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation - the formal name for OPEC+ - will rise by about 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, down 70,000 bpd from last month's forecast.

A solid economy shrugging off trade conflicts and a slowdown in supply growth outside OPEC+ - which groups OPEC plus Russia and other allies - would make it easier for OPEC+ to balance the oil market.

Rapid growth from US shale and from other countries has weighed on prices in recent years.

OPEC puts the call on OPEC+ crude at 42.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and 43.2 million barrels per day in 2026.

This came after OPEC+ crude production rose by 180,000 barrels per day to 41.23 million barrels per day in May while overall OPEC crude-oil production rose by 183,000 barrels a day to 27.02 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, OPEC is anticipating stable US shale oil production on an annual basis in 2026.