OPEC said on Monday it expected the global economy to remain resilient in the second half of this year and trimmed its forecast for growth in oil supply from the United States and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group in 2026.
In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026, after reductions in April. It said the economic outlook was robust despite trade concerns.
“The global economy has outperformed expectations so far in the first half of 2025,” OPEC said in the report.
“This strong base from the first half of 2025 is anticipated to provide support and sufficient momentum into a sound second half of 2025. However, the growth trend is expected to moderate slightly on a quarterly basis,” it added.
In the report, OPEC also said supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation - the formal name for OPEC+ - will rise by about 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, down 70,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
A solid economy shrugging off trade conflicts and a slowdown in supply growth outside OPEC+ - which groups OPEC plus Russia and other allies - would make it easier for OPEC+ to balance the oil market.
Rapid growth from US shale and from other countries has weighed on prices in recent years.
OPEC puts the call on OPEC+ crude at 42.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and 43.2 million barrels per day in 2026.
This came after OPEC+ crude production rose by 180,000 barrels per day to 41.23 million barrels per day in May while overall OPEC crude-oil production rose by 183,000 barrels a day to 27.02 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, OPEC is anticipating stable US shale oil production on an annual basis in 2026.
