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World Bank Slashes Growth Forecasts for MENA Region amid Global Uncertainty

World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks during the Spring Meetings in Washington (AFP).
World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks during the Spring Meetings in Washington (AFP).
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World Bank Slashes Growth Forecasts for MENA Region amid Global Uncertainty

World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks during the Spring Meetings in Washington (AFP).
World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks during the Spring Meetings in Washington (AFP).

The World Bank has sharply downgraded its growth projections for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, cutting its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.6% and 3.7%, respectively.

It marked the second revision this year, down from January’s estimates of 3.4% and 4.1%, and significantly below the 3.8% growth previously expected for 2024, as published last October.

The revised outlook reflects the anticipated impact of a slowing global economy, driven by ongoing US tariff measures and retaliatory responses.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also echoed similar concerns earlier this week, projecting growth in the region at 2.6% for 2024 and 3.4% for 2025 - both reduced by nearly one percentage point from earlier forecasts.

In its latest MENA Economic Update, titled, “Shifting Gears: The Private Sector as an Engine of Growth in the Middle East and North Africa”, released during the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, the Bank highlighted that ongoing conflict, climate shocks, oil price volatility, and shifting geopolitical dynamics are compounding the region’s economic uncertainty. These risks are further amplified by indirect effects from global interest rate fluctuations and inflation trends.

The report noted that the MENA region expanded by a modest 1.9% in 2024 - slightly below earlier projections - while recovery in oil-importing countries is expected to be driven by increased consumption, aided by easing inflation. However, uncertainty remains high for agricultural recovery due to climate-related volatility.

Inflation Pressures

The World Bank observed that inflationary pressures in MENA moderated throughout 2024, in line with global trends. However, it cautioned that uncertainties around trade policy could rekindle inflation. Inflation is estimated at 2.2% in 2024, with a slight uptick to 2.4% in 2025, before easing again to 2.3% in 2026.

GCC Countries Show Resilience

For the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE - the World Bank projects real GDP growth to rise to 3.2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. This follows a downward revision for 2024 from 4.1%, although 2025’s forecast was slightly raised from 4.4%.

Growth is expected to be buoyed by a gradual rebound in oil production and continued economic diversification efforts, especially in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar. The easing of oil output cuts by OPEC+ is also likely to support economic activity in these oil-exporting nations.

Inflation across GCC states is forecast to reach 2.4% in 2025, up from 2% in previous projections, before dipping to 2.3% in 2026. However, risks persist, particularly due to oil price volatility, potential trade disruptions, and broader global economic uncertainties. The report stresses the need for ongoing investment in human capital and infrastructure to enhance economic resilience.

Role of Private Sector

The report emphasizes the vital role of the private sector in driving sustainable growth across MENA. It argues that vibrant private enterprises are essential for job creation and innovation, yet productivity growth across the region has stagnated.

The Bank highlights that few firms invest in innovation or compete at a global level, while a large informal economy and limited female participation hamper broader progress.

Osman Dione, the World Bank’s Vice President for MENA, noted that the region continues to suffer from underutilized human capital and the exclusion of women from the labor market.

Governments are urged to play a facilitative role by enhancing market competition, improving business environments, and investing in infrastructure and data systems to support enterprise development. Roberta Gatti, the Bank’s Chief Economist for MENA, said: “A dynamic private sector is crucial for unlocking sustainable growth and prosperity in the region.”

The report concludes that a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role, tap into untapped talent, and encourage firms to build internal capabilities and adopt stronger management practices. Unlocking this potential could substantially accelerate the region’s economic trajectory.

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Business

Japan PM Reassures Markets with Fiscal Discipline in Next Year’s Budget

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
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Japan PM Reassures Markets with Fiscal Discipline in Next Year’s Budget

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sought on Thursday to ease market concerns over her expansionary fiscal policy, saying the government's draft budget maintains discipline by limiting reliance on debt.

There has been growing investor unease about fiscal expansion under Takaichi's administration, which has driven super-long government bond yields to record highs and weighed on the yen.

The budget for the year starting in April, to be finalized on Friday and submitted to parliament early in 2026, ‌will total 122.3 trillion ‌yen ($785.4 billion), Takaichi told ruling coalition executives.

The huge ‌spending ⁠will come ‌on top of a 21.3 trillion-yen stimulus package, compiled in November and funded by a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, that focused on cushioning the blow to households from rising living costs.

Despite the record size, new government bond issuance for the next fiscal year will be capped at 29.6 trillion yen, staying below 30 trillion yen for a second straight year, ⁠she said.

The reliance on debt will fall to 24.2% from 24.9% in the initial fiscal 2025 ‌budget, which dipped below 30% for the ‍first time in 27 years, she said. ‍The 24.2% debt dependence ratio would be the lowest since 1998.

"We ‍believe this draft budget strikes a balance between fiscal discipline and achieving a strong economy while ensuring fiscal sustainability," Takaichi said.

In a separate speech at Japanese business lobby Keidanren, Takaichi said that her "responsible, proactive" fiscal policy means strategic spending with a long-term perspective.

"It does not mean expanding expenditures indiscriminately based solely on scale," she said.

In a report to clients, Yusuke Matsuo, ⁠Mizuho Securities' senior market economist, said Takaichi would still need to promote proactive fiscal spending to avoid alienating her political base. He added that financial markets could be reassured if the government sticks to a less aggressive stance on spending.

Signaling a shift in the government's reflationary policy push, private-sector members of a government panel on Thursday called on the government to clearly show the public how the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio can be steadily reduced under Takaichi's government.

The four private-sector members include former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe and economist Toshihiro Nagahama - known as reflationist aides of Takaichi.

Their proposals were discussed at ‌the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), which oversees Japan's fiscal blueprint and long-term economic policies.

Business

Asian Shares are Mixed after US Stocks Drift to More Records

Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
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Asian Shares are Mixed after US Stocks Drift to More Records

Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)

Asian shares were mixed Thursday in thin holiday trading, with most markets in the region and elsewhere closed for Christmas.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% higher to 50,407.79. It has gained nearly 30% this year.

The dollar slipped to 155.85 Japanese yen from 155.94 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1786 from $1.1780.

Markets in mainland China advanced, with the Shanghai Composite index up 0.5% at 3,959.62. Hong Kong's exchange was closed, The Associated Press said.

Investors were encouraged by a statement by the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, promising to ensure adequate money supply to support financing, economic growth and inflation targets. Earlier in the week, the PBOC had opted to keep its key short-term lending rates unchanged.

Shares fell in Thailand and Indonesia.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 6,932.05 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6% to close at 48,731.16. The Nasdaq composite added 0.2% to 23,613.31

Trading was extremely light as markets closed early for Christmas Eve and will be closed for Christmas on Thursday. US markets will reopen for a full day of trading on Friday, though volumes will likely remain light this week with most investors having closed out their positions for the year.

The S&P 500 is up more than 17% this year, as investors have embraced the deregulatory policies of the Trump administration and been optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence in helping boost profits for not only technology companies but also for Corporate America.

Much of the focus for investors for the next few weeks will be on where the US economy is heading and where the Federal Reserve will move interest rates. Investors are betting the Fed will hold steady on interest rates at its January meeting.

The US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the most rapid expansion in two years, driven by consumers who continue to spend despite strong inflation. There have also been recent reports showing shaky confidence among consumers worried about high prices. The labor market has been slowing and retail sales have weakened.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week and remain at historically healthy levels despite some signs that the labor market is weakening.

US applications for jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 20 fell by 10,000 to 214,000 from the previous week’s 224,000, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. That’s below the 232,000 new applications forecast of analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet.

Dynavax Technologies soared 38.2% after Sanofi said it was acquiring the California-based vaccine maker in a deal worth $2.2 billion. The French drugmaker will add Dynavax’s hepatitis B vaccines to its portfolio, as well as a shingles vaccine that is still in development.

Novo Nordisk's shares rose 1.8% after the weight-loss drug company got approval from US regulators for a pill version of its blockbuster drug Wegovy. However, Novo Nordisk shares are still down almost 40% this year as the company has faced increased competition for weight-loss medications, particularly from Eli Lilly. Shares of Eli Lilly are up 40% this year.

US crude oil closed at $58.35 a barrel and Brent crude finished at $61.80 a barrel.

Business

Saudi PIF Backs Multibillion-Dollar Projects to Boost Sustainability

A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
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Saudi PIF Backs Multibillion-Dollar Projects to Boost Sustainability

A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has fully allocated the proceeds of its green bond issuance, directing $9 billion to eligible projects, in a move that highlights the sovereign wealth fund’s growing role in shaping a more sustainable future and delivering lasting positive impact worldwide.

According to a recent report issued by the Public Investment Fund, reviewed by Asharq Al-Awsat, the expected impact of the fund’s eligible green projects includes generating 427 megawatts of renewable energy, avoiding emissions equivalent to 5.1 million tons of carbon dioxide, and treating 4 million cubic meters of wastewater.

The Public Investment Fund aims to establish itself as an active participant in global debt markets, while also fostering the development of a dynamic domestic market. This would enable the fund to access short- or long-term liquidity through a diverse range of financing instruments.

Financing strategy

The fund’s capital markets program aims to further strengthen its financing strategy and execution capabilities, both at the level of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund and across its portfolio companies, while enabling deeper engagement with global and local debt markets.

The program will also support expanding the fund’s capacity to raise debt and deploy it as a source of investment financing, in line with its overall funding strategy. This approach is designed to instill greater discipline in cash flow management and enhance returns on equity for the fund and its portfolio companies.

The green bond issuance will provide the fund with access to a broader pool of investors who prioritize environmental, social, and governance considerations in their investment decisions. It will also allow investors to diversify their portfolios through green assets, a step expected to help accelerate the pace of green investment globally.

Climate change

The fund has taken concrete steps to advance governance and policy, focusing on sustainability, and is a founding member of the One Planet Sovereign Wealth Funds initiative. This international platform aims to accelerate the integration of climate change considerations into asset management decisions and investment opportunities.

As an investment vehicle, the Public Investment Fund operates through acquiring stakes in companies aligned with its mandate, including ACWA Power and Lucid.

It has also established the Saudi Investment Recycling Company, a leader in waste management and recycling, manages the National Energy Services Company, Tarshid, and supports the creation of a voluntary carbon market in the Middle East and North Africa.

These efforts aim to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position as one of the world’s most energy-efficient countries.

The green bond issuance will finance tangible projects on the ground, helping to accelerate the green transition and advance the Kingdom’s core targets of achieving net zero emissions by 2060 and generating 50 percent of electricity consumption from renewable energy sources by 2030.

This forms a key pillar of the renewable energy program implemented by the fund, which involves developing 70 percent of renewable power generation capacity.