As the conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, experts warn that direct US involvement could trigger a dangerous escalation, most notably, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.
If Iran were to follow through on this long-standing threat, the consequences would be severe, cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s oil exports and 30% of global natural gas shipments.
Russian strategic analyst Andrey Ontikov told Asharq Al-Awsat that fears remain real and growing, particularly if the war expands.
If the United States is drawn into the war alongside Israel, the likelihood of Iran moving to close the Strait of Hormuz becomes the most serious and effective threat, he said.
Ontikov explained that such a move would paralyze global energy flows from the Gulf, sending oil and gas prices soaring and inflicting major economic damage on both exporting and importing nations.
The resulting disruption would directly affect international shipping, raise transport and insurance costs, and cause energy prices to spike, further straining already fragile global supply chains, he added.
He also warned that broader geopolitical implications are at stake. A regional war involving the Strait of Hormuz could jeopardize key trade corridors, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s North-South transport corridor.
That would have a direct economic impact on both Beijing and Moscow, forcing countries to look urgently for alternative trade routes, Ontikov said.
Oil prices are already rising, though Ontikov believes that if tensions ease, the global economic impact could be contained. However, a prolonged or widened war would paint a far more troubling picture.
Saudi economic expert Dr. Ibrahim Alomar, head of Sharah Consulting, echoed these concerns.
“If the conflict stays limited, the effects may include a temporary $10–$20 increase in oil prices and limited disruption to financial and shipping markets,” he said. “But a broader war could push oil prices above $120, causing inflation and a sharp global economic slowdown.”
Alomar warned that in the worst-case scenario - where the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed - oil prices could skyrocket past $200, triggering hyperinflation, severe recession, and a collapse in global financial markets.
“Such a scenario could ultimately reshape the global economic system, depending on who emerges least damaged from the crisis,” he concluded.
