China’s First Four-Month Steel Exports at Record High Despite Tariff Turmoil 

Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)
Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)
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China’s First Four-Month Steel Exports at Record High Despite Tariff Turmoil 

Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)
Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)

China's steel exports in April topped 10 million metric tons for a second straight month bringing the total in the first four months to a record high, underpinned by front-loaded shipments ahead of US President Donald Trump's hefty tariffs.

The world's largest steel producer and exporter shipped 10.46 million tons of steel last month, customs data showed on Friday. While largely unchanged from March, exports were 13.5% higher than the same month in 2024.

Exports from January to April jumped by 8.2% from the year before to an all-time high for the period of 37.89 million tons.

"Steel exports in April are a bit higher than our expectation, albeit maintaining positive annual growth, supported by sustained front-loading orders observed," said Jiang Mengtian, a Shanghai-based analyst at consultancy Horizon Insights.

Jiang forecast May shipments to slow as tariff and widening trade protectionism started to bite.

Washington's tariffs threaten the transshipment trade, where third countries resell Chinese steel to the US, while China's top steel customers like South Korea and Vietnam have also imposed duties to avoid steel being rerouted and dumped in their markets.

Second-quarter exports are set to fall by as much as a fifth from the first quarter as a result, eight analysts and traders told Reuters earlier this week.

China's April iron ore imports climbed by 9.8% from March to the highest since December, as improved margins encouraged mills to book more seaborne cargoes.

The world's largest iron ore consumer brought in 103.14 million tons of the key steelmaking ingredient last month, up from a 20-month low of 93.97 million tons in March.

The volume last month, which was largely in line with analysts' expectations, was also 1.3% higher than 101.82 million tons in April 2024.

"Since March imports missed expectations, it's not surprising to see higher iron ore imports in April, which could also be reflected in higher hot metal output last month and a pile-up in inventory in the last two weeks of April," said Pei Hao, an analyst at international brokerage Freight Investor Services (FIS).

In the first four months of this year, China's iron ore imports slid 5.5% from the year earlier to 388.36 million tons, the data showed.



US Involvement in Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Fears of Strait of Hormuz Closure

A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
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US Involvement in Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Fears of Strait of Hormuz Closure

A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)

As the conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, experts warn that direct US involvement could trigger a dangerous escalation, most notably, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.

If Iran were to follow through on this long-standing threat, the consequences would be severe, cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s oil exports and 30% of global natural gas shipments.

Russian strategic analyst Andrey Ontikov told Asharq Al-Awsat that fears remain real and growing, particularly if the war expands.

If the United States is drawn into the war alongside Israel, the likelihood of Iran moving to close the Strait of Hormuz becomes the most serious and effective threat, he said.

Ontikov explained that such a move would paralyze global energy flows from the Gulf, sending oil and gas prices soaring and inflicting major economic damage on both exporting and importing nations.

The resulting disruption would directly affect international shipping, raise transport and insurance costs, and cause energy prices to spike, further straining already fragile global supply chains, he added.

He also warned that broader geopolitical implications are at stake. A regional war involving the Strait of Hormuz could jeopardize key trade corridors, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s North-South transport corridor.

That would have a direct economic impact on both Beijing and Moscow, forcing countries to look urgently for alternative trade routes, Ontikov said.

Oil prices are already rising, though Ontikov believes that if tensions ease, the global economic impact could be contained. However, a prolonged or widened war would paint a far more troubling picture.

Saudi economic expert Dr. Ibrahim Alomar, head of Sharah Consulting, echoed these concerns.

“If the conflict stays limited, the effects may include a temporary $10–$20 increase in oil prices and limited disruption to financial and shipping markets,” he said. “But a broader war could push oil prices above $120, causing inflation and a sharp global economic slowdown.”

Alomar warned that in the worst-case scenario - where the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed - oil prices could skyrocket past $200, triggering hyperinflation, severe recession, and a collapse in global financial markets.

“Such a scenario could ultimately reshape the global economic system, depending on who emerges least damaged from the crisis,” he concluded.