Dollar Eyes Weekly Rise into US-China Trade Talks 

A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
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Dollar Eyes Weekly Rise into US-China Trade Talks 

A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)

The dollar headed for a weekly gain on most major peers on Friday as a US-UK trade deal raised hopes of progress in looming US-China talks, while bets of imminent Fed rate cuts receded after the central bank indicated it was in no hurry.

Financial markets are heading into the weekend with the focus squarely on trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing due to begin on Saturday in Switzerland.

The euro touched a one-month low of $1.1197 in Asia and was down about 0.6% for the week. The yen has weakened about 0.4% this week and hit a one-month trough of 146.18 per dollar, before steadying around 145.48 on Friday.

Sterling, which had rallied on news reports of an impending US-UK trade deal, gave back gains when the agreement turned out to be pretty limited and struck a three-week low of $1.3220 in early trade on Friday.

The "general terms" agreement modestly expands agricultural access for both countries and lowers prohibitive US duties on British car exports, but leaves in place the 10% baseline.

"The market reaction of buying USD may reflect greater optimism that such tariff deals are doable," said Steve Englander, global head of G10 currency research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients.

"Trump's dangling of the prospect of a trade detente with China may be adding to optimism that the global disruption from trade wars may not be as severe as markets have feared," he said.

"For the time being, G10 markets would be relieved if US and China bilateral tariffs were rolled back, even if they remain well above January 19 levels."

Bitcoin has surged back above $100,000, reflecting a refreshed appetite for risk-taking in markets' more speculative corners.

Announcing the UK deal, Trump said he expects substantive negotiations between the US and China this weekend and that tariffs on Beijing of 145% would likely come down.

The administration is weighing a plan to slash the tariff on Chinese imports by more than half, the New York Post reported, citing unidentified sources, though the White House dismissed that as speculation.

The Australian dollar headed for its first weekly drop in a month, with a 0.7% fall to $0.6407. The New Zealand dollar was likewise lower, clinging to support at $0.5895, just above its 200-day moving average.

On the central bank front this week moves were as expected with the Bank of England cutting, while Sweden, Norway and the United States left rates on hold.

However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, emphasising the level of uncertainty, were taken as reducing the likelihood the Fed lowers rates any time soon and market pricing for a cut in June has drifted to about 17% from about 55% a week ago.

In contrast with G10 peers, the dollar was lower on several Asian currencies this week after a shock surge in the Taiwan dollar.

After a volatile few days it has settled around 30 to the dollar, more than 6% stronger from where it had finished April. The Singapore dollar is not far from decade highs. The Hong Kong dollar has retreated from the strong side of its band after heavy intervention from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

India's rupee opened under renewed pressure on Friday as conflict between India and Pakistan escalates. It dropped sharply on Thursday and, at 85.55 to the dollar, is eyeing its heaviest weekly fall since 2022.



IEA Is Ready to Further Tap Global Oil Reserves if Needed, Chief Says

25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)
25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)
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IEA Is Ready to Further Tap Global Oil Reserves if Needed, Chief Says

25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)
25 January 2019, Switzerland, Davos: Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum. (Valeriano Di Domenico/World Economic Forum/dpa)

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said on Monday he hopes another oil stockpile release is not needed but "we stand ready to act" if the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran requires ‌it.

The 32-member ‌IEA agreed last month ‌to ⁠release 400 million barrels of ⁠oil from reserves, the largest coordinated release ever, in a bid to calm oil markets.

The US, the world's largest oil and gas producer, agreed to release 172 million barrels ⁠from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"I ‌hope, very much ‌hope, we don't need to do ‌it but if it is needed we ‌are ready to act," Birol said.

Birol reiterated at an Atlantic Council event that the war has resulted in the worst ‌global energy disruption ever and said that more than 80 oil ⁠and ⁠gas facilities including production, terminals and refineries across the Middle East have been damaged by war with Iran.

Benchmark oil prices are trading near $100 a barrel.

Due to the vast extent of the production shut-ins and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil releases are "not a solution," Birol said, "it's just reducing the pain."


Hapag-Lloyd Says US Plans to Block Hormuz Difficult to Assess

(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)
(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)
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Hapag-Lloyd Says US Plans to Block Hormuz Difficult to Assess

(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)
(FILES) A Hapag Lloyd container ship is seen in Rotterdam's harbour on August 1, 2022. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)

Germany's Hapag-Lloyd said on Monday that it is difficult to assess what effect US President Donald Trump's plans to block the Strait of Hormuz would have on shipping.

"What's important is that passage through the Strait of Hormuz be restored as soon as possible," said a company spokesperson in an emailed statement.

From Hapag-Lloyd's view, as long as there are mines, passage is not possible, and in addition, insurance for passage is also difficult to obtain at this time, added the spokesperson.


UN: Iran War Could Plunge 32 million into Poverty

People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
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UN: Iran War Could Plunge 32 million into Poverty

People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
People shop at the fruit and vegetable market the day after negotiations between Iran and the US in Pakistan failed to produce a deal, in the capital Tehran on April 13, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)

More than 32 million people worldwide could be plunged into poverty by the economic fallout from the Iran war, with developing countries expected to be hit hardest, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) warned.

In a report issued amid doubts over a fragile ceasefire, the UNDP said the world is facing a “triple shock” involving energy, food and weaker economic growth.

The agency said the conflict is reversing gains in international development, with the impact expected to be felt unevenly across regions.

Alexander De Croo, UNDP administrator and former prime minister of Belgium, said: “A conflict like this is development in reverse. Even if the war stops, and a ceasefire is very welcome, the impact is already there.”

“You will see an enduring impact, especially in poorer countries, where people are being pushed back into poverty. This is the most painful aspect. The people being pushed into poverty are very often the same people who were in poverty, escaped it, and are now being pushed back.”

Energy prices surged sharply during the six weeks of the Iran war after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked global oil and gas supplies. With knock-on effects on fertilizer supplies and global shipping, experts warn of a “time bomb” threatening food security in the developing world.

The head of the International Monetary Fund said the war’s “devastating effects” have caused lasting damage to the global economy, even if the conflict ends.

Publishing its report alongside meetings of world leaders in Washington for the IMF Spring Meetings, the UNDP said a global response is required to support countries hardest hit by the economic fallout.

It said targeted and temporary cash transfers are needed to protect the most vulnerable households in developing countries, at a cost of about $6 billion to mitigate the shocks for those living below the poverty line.

De Croo said international agencies and development banks could provide financial support. “There is a positive economic return from short-term cash transfers to avoid people being pushed back into poverty,” he said. Alternative measures could include temporary subsidies or vouchers for electricity or cooking gas.

Setting out three scenarios for the war, the UNDP found that in the worst case – involving six weeks of major disruption to oil and gas production and eight months of sustained higher costs – up to 32.5 million people globally would fall into poverty.

The report used the upper-middle-income poverty line defined by the World Bank, set at less than $8.30 per person per day.

The UNDP said that while richer countries are in a stronger position to cushion the economic fallout, countries in the global south face weaker conditions and already severe financial constraints.

This comes as western governments, including the US, Germany, France and the UK, cut aid spending amid rising borrowing and debt levels in advanced economies and calls to increase defense spending.

Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development published last week showed that countries in its Development Assistance Committee cut aid spending to $174.3 billion in 2025, nearly a quarter lower than in 2024.