UN Forecasts Slower Global Economic Growth Following Trump’s Tariffs and Trade Tensions 

An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, US, May 13, 2025. (Reuters)
An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, US, May 13, 2025. (Reuters)
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UN Forecasts Slower Global Economic Growth Following Trump’s Tariffs and Trade Tensions 

An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, US, May 13, 2025. (Reuters)
An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, US, May 13, 2025. (Reuters)

The United Nations on Thursday forecast slower global economic growth this year and next, pointing to the impact of the surge in US tariffs and increasing trade tensions.

UN economists also cited the volatile geopolitical landscape and threats of rising production costs, supply chain disruptions and financial turbulence.

“These days, there’s so much uncertainty in the air,” said Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the Economic Analysis and Policy Division at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

“It’s been a nervous time for the global economy,” he told reporters while launching the midyear forecast. “In January this year, we were expecting two years of stable — if subpar — growth, and since then, prospects have diminished, accompanied by significant volatility across various dimensions.”

The UN is now forecasting global economic growth of 2.4% this year and 2.5% next year — a drop of 0.4 percentage point each year from its projections in January. Last year, the global economy grew 2.9%.

Mukherjee said the slowing is affecting most countries and regions, but among the most severely hit are the poorest and least developed countries, whose growth prospects have fallen from 4.6% to 4.1% just since January.

“That translates into a loss of billions in economic output for the most disadvantaged of countries,” which are home to over half the global population living in extreme poverty, he said.

The world’s developed and developing countries also are projected to suffer, according to the UN report.

Economic growth in the United States is now projected to drop significantly, from 2.8% last year to 1.6% this year, it said, noting that higher tariffs and policy uncertainty are expected to weigh on private investment and consumption.

China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.6% this year from 5% in 2024 as a result of subdued consumer sentiment, disruptions in its export-oriented manufacturing companies, and continuing challenges in its property sector, the report said.

The European Union’s growth is forecast to remain the same this year as it was last year — just 1%, the report said, citing weaker net exports and higher trade barriers. The United Kingdom’s economic growth of 1.1% last year is projected to fall to 0.9%.

Weakening trade, slowing investments and falling commodity prices are also forecast to erode growth in other major developing economies, including Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.

India will remain one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies, but the UN forecast said its growth is expected to drop from 7.1% in 2024 to 6.3% this year.

The UN’s global economic growth forecast is lower than the International Monetary Fund’s.

On a more positive note, Mukherjee said the UN is expecting that bilateral negotiations will lead to lower tariffs, although he said they won’t return to the levels before US President Donald Trump’s February announcement.

Nonetheless, Mukherjee said, resolving uncertainties would help individuals and businesses move forward with economic decisions and that would have a positive impact on the global economy.



North Korea Bars Western Influencers from Trade Fair Tour

North Korea has barred Western influencers from joining tourists to an international trade fair, a China-based tour operator said. STR / KCNA VIA KNS/AFP
North Korea has barred Western influencers from joining tourists to an international trade fair, a China-based tour operator said. STR / KCNA VIA KNS/AFP
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North Korea Bars Western Influencers from Trade Fair Tour

North Korea has barred Western influencers from joining tourists to an international trade fair, a China-based tour operator said. STR / KCNA VIA KNS/AFP
North Korea has barred Western influencers from joining tourists to an international trade fair, a China-based tour operator said. STR / KCNA VIA KNS/AFP

North Korea has barred Western influencers from joining a delegation of tourists to an international trade fair in October, a China-based tour operator told AFP on Monday.

Diplomatically isolated North Korea has welcomed sporadic groups of international visitors in recent months, including hundreds of foreign athletes in April for the first Pyongyang International Marathon in six years.

China has historically been the biggest diplomatic, economic and political backer of North Korea, which remains under crippling international sanctions.

Travel agency Young Pioneer Tours (YPT) said on Saturday it would take a group of foreign tourists on a trip to the authoritarian state from October 24 to November 1.

However, the tour would not be open to journalists, travel content creators or influencers, the company said on its website.

YPT co-founder Rowan Beard told AFP the curbs on creators were "a specific request from the North Korean side".

"We anticipate that once the country officially reopens, there may be stricter scrutiny or limitations on influencers and YouTubers joining tours," Beard said.

The company had "no visibility" on when Pyongyang would restart official media delegations, he said.

Several online influencers have shared slickly produced videos from inside North Korea in recent months.

Chad O'Carroll, founder of specialist website NK News, said many influencers tend to have larger audiences than professional journalists, but "they are normally working without editors and tend to gain extra views through sensationalist-style content".

"North Korean authorities likely see few benefits and major risks with allowing social media influencers to visit the country, given what we saw earlier this year," O'Carroll told AFP.

"The result is a community of potential visitors who, in DPRK authorities' minds, are not likely to produce content that is favorable to state interests," he said, using North Korea's official name.

Lavish gifts

The YPT tour, priced at 3,995 euros ($4,704), will depart from the Chinese capital Beijing and take in the Pyongyang Autumn International Trade Fair, North Korea's biggest international business exhibition.

Participants will have a "unique chance" to stroll through more than 450 trade booths exhibiting machinery, information technology, energy, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods and household items.

YPT also said the Pyongyang Chamber of Commerce would "hold a VIP presentation for us for an in-depth overview and insights into the (North Korean) economy".

The itinerary also includes major sights in Pyongyang as well as the first Western visit in more than five years to Mount Myohyang, which boasts a museum of lavish gifts presented to former North Korean leaders.

Chinese people used to make up the bulk of foreign tourists and business visitors to the isolated nuclear nation before it sealed its borders during the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, numbers have not rebounded despite Pyongyang's post-pandemic reopening, a trend that some analysts have attributed to Beijing's anger at North Korea's explicit support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.