IATA: $1.3 Billion in Airline Funds Blocked by Governments

IATA logo (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
IATA logo (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
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IATA: $1.3 Billion in Airline Funds Blocked by Governments

IATA logo (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
IATA logo (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Sunday that $1.3 billion in airline funds are blocked from repatriation by governments as of end of April 2025.

“This is a significant amount, although it is an improvement of 25% compared with the $1.7 billion reported for October 2024,” it said in a statement.

The announcement came during the 81st IATA Annual General Meeting (AGM) hosted in New Delhi by one of the largest airlines in India, IndiGo.

At the meeting, airline executives will discuss challenges the sector is facing at the environmental level, in addition to the increased operational costs, driven by factors such as rising fuel prices earlier this year and ongoing disruptions in global supply chains, which have delayed aircraft deliveries and constrained maintenance schedules.

In this regard, IATA urged governments to remove all barriers preventing airlines from the timely repatriation of their revenues from ticket sales and other activities in accordance with international agreements and treaty obligations.

“Ensuring the timely repatriation of revenues is vital for airlines to cover dollar-denominated expenses and maintain their operations,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

He said delays and denials violate bilateral agreements and increase exchange rate risks.

“Reliable access to revenues is critical for any business—particularly airlines which operate on very thin margins. Economies and jobs rely on international connectivity. Governments must realize that it is a challenge for airlines to maintain connectivity when revenue repatriation is denied or delayed,” Walsh added.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

IATA said SAF production is expected to grow to two million tons in 2025, accounting for just 0.7% of airline fuel use.

According to Walsh, while the production increase was encouraging, the relatively small amount will add $4.4 billion globally to aviation's fuel bill.

“The pace of progress in ramping up production and gaining efficiencies to reduce costs must accelerate,” Walsh said in a statement.

IATA said SAF is now heading toward Europe, where the EU and UK mandates kicked in on 1 January 2025.

Unacceptably, it added, the cost of SAF to airlines has now doubled in Europe because of compliance fees that SAF producers or suppliers are charging.

For the expected one million tons of SAF that will be purchased to meet the European mandates in 2025, IATA said the expected cost at current market prices is $1.2 billion.

Also, compliance fees are estimated to add an additional $1.7 billion on top of market prices, an amount that could have abated an additional 3.5 million tons of carbon emissions.

“This highlights the problem with the implementation of mandates before there are sufficient market conditions and before safeguards are in place against unreasonable market practices that raise the cost of decarbonization,” said Walsh.

He noted that raising the cost of the energy transition that is already estimated to be a staggering $4.7 trillion should not be the aim or the result of decarbonization policies.

“Europe needs to realize that its approach is not working and find another way,” he said.

New Agreement

In light of the new challenges, IndiGo announced it has entered an agreement with Air France-KLM, Virgin Atlantic and Delta, to expand its long-haul services to North America, Europe and Britain, the airlines said on Sunday.

IndiGo has an extensive domestic network in India, the world's third-largest air passenger market, and is expanding its international reach.

Once the airline partnership is complete, IndiGo will be able to sell flights under its own name on those operated by its partners out of India, and onward travel from Amsterdam and Manchester, UK, on selected flights to Europe and North America.

IndiGo will start flying to Amsterdam and Manchester from July.

Separately IndiGo said it would convert 30 out of 70 options for Airbus A350 jets into firm orders for new planes.

IndiGo is aiming to grow its fleet to 600 aircraft by 2030, from more than 400 currently, and has been leasing aircraft to tide it over aircraft delivery delays and expand internationally.

It recently said it will lease six Boeing 787 wide-body jets from Norse Atlantic Airways by early next year.

US carrier Delta has not flown to India since the pandemic. CEO Ed Bastian told media at an airline summit in New Delhi that Delta will restart direct services from the United States to India over the next couple of years.

“There's not a more important market in aviation at the present time than in India,” Bastian said.

Delta is planning nonstop flights between Atlanta and Delhi, subject to government approval, a joint statement said.

Aviation Safety

At the annual meeting in New Delhi, aviation safety will also be in focus after a spate of air accidents in Kazakhstan, South Korea and North America over the past six months, and rising concerns about air traffic control systems in the United States.

IATA said in February that accidents and incidents related to conflict zones are a top concern for aviation safety requiring urgent global coordination.

In a related development, IATA said India has reached a major milestone in its aviation journey, rising to become the third-largest market for air travel globally.

In return, heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, have significantly impacted air travel in the region, forcing Indian airlines to take longer, detour routes.

Meanwhile, the aviation sector’s recent rebound in passenger numbers has been encouraging, with strong demand emerging across Europe and Asia.

However, US carriers have faced a more complicated picture, experiencing a downturn in travel demand.

The uncertainty over how the Trump Administration’s trade policies will evolve could hold back critical business decisions that drive economic activity, and with it the demand for air cargo and business travel.

 

 

 



Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)

Gold prices rose on Tuesday on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, but were poised for their worst month in more than 17 years as higher energy prices dimmed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year.

Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,561.68 per ounce, as of 0427 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained 0.7% to $4,590.

The dollar eased, making greenback-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

"Gold prices are bouncing in ⁠early Asia-Pacific trade ⁠after US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran... That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Trump told aides that he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and leave a ⁠complex operation to reopen it for a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

"Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk," Reuters quoted Spivak as saying.

Bullion has fallen more than 13% so far this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008, weighed down by a stronger dollar and fading expectations of a US interest rate cut ⁠this year. ⁠Prices are still up about 5% for the quarter.

Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation.

Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Before the war in the Middle East erupted, there were expectations of two Fed rate cuts for this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs said in a note that it still expects gold to reach $5,400 per ounce by end 2026 on central bank diversification and Fed easing.

Spot silver rose 2.9% to $72.04 per ounce, spot platinum gained 0.6% to $1,911.15, and palladium was up 2% at $1,434.23.


Oil Slips, Stocks Rise as Report Says Trump Willing to End War

The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
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Oil Slips, Stocks Rise as Report Says Trump Willing to End War

The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP

Oil prices sank and most stocks rose Tuesday, following a report that indicated Donald Trump was willing to end the Iran war even if the key Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

But investors remain wary as the Wall Street Journal story came on the same day the US president threatened to destroy Iran's key oil export hub and desalination plants unless it accepts a deal, while also suggesting diplomacy was making headway, said AFP.

The news comes as governments around the world scramble to implement measures to ease the burden of surging fuel prices while also looking to conserve energy, with one-fifth of global crude and gas passing through the waterway.

The Journal, citing administration officials, said Trump and his aides had come to the conclusion that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend the length of the mission past his four- to six-week timeline.

It added that he had decided to focus on battering Iran's missiles and navy, before looking to pressure Iran diplomatically to reopen the Strait.

Both main oil contracts fell Tuesday, though West Texas Intermediate and Brent were still sitting well above $100 a barrel.

And most equity markets rose. Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Jakarta were all up, while Tokyo fluctuated.

Seoul, Taipei and Manila fell.

However, Trump also threatened Monday to destroy Kharg Island, through which most of Iran's crude passes, if a peace deal is not reached.

He warned US forces would destroy "all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)."

Destroying civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, experts say.

Iran has previously threatened to retaliate by targeting energy infrastructure and desalination plants in its Arab neighbors that host the US military, fanning fears of a wider conflict.

But Trump also said officials were speaking to a "more reasonable regime" in Tehran, which has denied any talks and accused the president of lying about negotiations as cover while preparing a ground invasion.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced hope for working with elements within Iran's government.

Market experts warned that any US ground operation or wider Iranian retaliation could send oil prices to levels not seen since July 2008, when Brent hit almost $150 a barrel.

'De-escalation and re-escalation'

In a sign Iran was determined to keep control of Hormuz, state media reported Monday that a parliamentary commission had approved plans to impose tolls on vessels transiting it.

With Trump flipping between hope for talks and threats, analysts said investors were having to walk a tightrope.

"The market continues to be headline-driven as the Trump Administration has delivered a variety of messages surrounding de-escalation and re-escalation of the war in Iran," Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek said.

With the war now in its fifth week, governments are moving to shore up their economies.

Economy ministers and central bankers from the G7 club of rich countries met in Paris to discuss the war's effects, with many countries introducing energy-saving measures or cutting fuel taxes to help consumers.

Norway said it will temporarily cut diesel and petrol taxes and Bangladesh ordered civil servants to switch off lights and turn down air conditioning to save power.

Sri Lanka announced a nearly 40 percent increase in electricity prices from Wednesday as it battles an energy shortage. Colombo has raised fuel prices three times this month, increasing them by more than a third, and has imposed a four-day working week in a bid to save energy.

"From here, the burden shifts from military outcomes to economic endurance. The question is no longer how high oil spikes, but how long elevated energy costs bleed into growth, margins, and consumption," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell also provided a little support, saying Monday the bank could look past energy shocks because they "have tended to come and go pretty quickly" but monetary policy changes take time to flow through the economy.

While the spike in energy prices threatens to send inflation soaring again, he added that officials "feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out" and "inflation expectations do appear to be well-anchored beyond the short term".


IMF: Iran War 'Shock' is Dimming Outlook for Many Economies

FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
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IMF: Iran War 'Shock' is Dimming Outlook for Many Economies

FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo

The war in the Middle East has caused serious disruption to the economies of frontline countries, and is dimming the outlook for many economies that had just started to recover from previous crises, the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday.

In a blog published by the global lender's top economists, the IMF said the war launched by US and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28 was causing a global, but asymmetric shock and leading to tighter financial conditions.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure had caused the largest disruption to the global oil market in history, given that 25%-30% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas normally passed through the narrow waterway, according to ⁠the International Energy ⁠Agency.

The war's impact would depend on how long it lasts, how far it spreads and how much damage it inflicts on infrastructure and supply chains, the IMF said, urging countries to carefully calibrate any measures to manage the shock.

The IMF was also supporting member countries with policy advice and financial assistance, where needed and in coordination with the international community, the fund said.

The IMF statement came as finance ⁠leaders from the Group of Seven economic powers said they were ready to take "all necessary measures" to safeguard energy market stability and limit broader economic spillovers from recent volatility.

The International Energy Agency's 32 members agreed earlier this month to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat a spike in global crude prices.

The IMF blog said low-income countries were at particular risk of food insecurity, given higher food and fertilizer prices, and might need more external support at a time when many advanced economies were scaling back their international assistance.

"Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth," the economists wrote, according to Reuters. They noted that ⁠large energy importers ⁠in Asia and Europe were bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input prices, while countries in Africa and Asia were finding it hard to access the supplies they need, even at inflated prices.

A long conflict and the associated uncertainty and geopolitical risk could keep energy expensive and strain countries that rely on imports, tensions could linger and inflation could prove hard to tame, they said.

The IMF said it will release a fuller assessment in its World Economic Outlook, to be published on April 14, during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

If elevated energy and food prices persist, they will fuel inflation worldwide, the authors wrote, noting that sustained oil-price spikes have historically tended to push inflation higher and growth lower.

The war could also fuel expectations that inflation will remain higher for longer, which could translate into higher wages and prices, making it harder to contain the shock without a sharper slowdown, they said.