Vujcic: ECB Should Not 'Overreact' if Inflation Edges Below 2%

FILE PHOTO: The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, is photographed during a heavy rain storm ahead of the ECB council meeting later this week, Germany, March 14, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, is photographed during a heavy rain storm ahead of the ECB council meeting later this week, Germany, March 14, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
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Vujcic: ECB Should Not 'Overreact' if Inflation Edges Below 2%

FILE PHOTO: The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, is photographed during a heavy rain storm ahead of the ECB council meeting later this week, Germany, March 14, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, is photographed during a heavy rain storm ahead of the ECB council meeting later this week, Germany, March 14, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo

The European Central Bank should not "overreact" to euro-zone inflation edging below its 2% target as there are good reasons to believe it will come back up, ECB policymaker Boris Vujcic told Reuters.

The ECB cut interest rates on Thursday for the eighth time in a year but signaled at least a policy pause next month, despite projecting inflation at just 1.6% next year. Inflation in the 20 countries that share the euro was 1.9% in May, according to a flash reading published last week.

Vujcic, who is also Croatia's central bank governor, said price growth was likely to bounce back later and that monetary policy should not try to do "precision surgery" on small fluctuations from its goal.

"A few tens of basis points' deviation on either side of the target is not a problem," Vujcic said in an interview on Saturday in Dubrovnik. "Because you will always have small deviations. If you consider them as a problem, then you will overreact. This is not precision surgery."

Vujcic said it was reasonable to expect inflation to edge back up as energy prices find a bottom and the economy accelerates. Euro strength is also unlikely to have second-round effects on prices unless it lasts several quarters, Vujcic said.

Some ECB policymakers, especially Portugal's central bank governor Mario Centeno, worry that euro-zone inflation may slow too much.

Vujcic said he sees the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as "pretty balanced" but cautioned there was "complete uncertainty" surrounding global trade tensions with US President Donald Trump's administration.

Vujcic recalled advice he received as a young deputy governor from then-Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan: a high rate of inflation was more dangerous than a low one. Greenspan cited two decades of relatively benign deflation in the late 19th century, which was partly due to improvements in productivity, Vujcic said.

"Nobody cared about low inflation because of the productivity growth," he said. "You have a monetary policy problem to bring it up. Yes, but why would you insist so much if you don't have a problem in the economy?"

The ECB is reviewing its long-term strategy, including the role of massive bond purchases, or quantitative easing, in reviving inflation when it is too low.

The ECB injected some 7 trillion euros ($8 trillion) of liquidity into the banking system through QE and other tools over the past decade. These schemes were blamed for inflating bubbles in real estate and setting up the central bank for sizeable losses.

"The next time around, people will take the lessons from the previous episode, and I think that the bar for QE would be higher," Vujcic said.

He said QE could help stabilize dysfunctional markets - such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - but if used "for years and years to try and bring inflation up, its marginal efficiency declines".

Such calls for self-criticism are shared by some policymakers in the ECB's hawkish camp. But sources told Reuters they were unlikely to feature in the ECB's new strategy document, to be published this summer.



Saudi Arabia Signs New Port Contracts Worth Over $586 Million

Acting President of Mawani Mazen Al-Turki (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
Acting President of Mawani Mazen Al-Turki (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
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Saudi Arabia Signs New Port Contracts Worth Over $586 Million

Acting President of Mawani Mazen Al-Turki (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
Acting President of Mawani Mazen Al-Turki (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Ports (Mawani) has signed a series of new build-operate-transfer (BOT) contracts worth more than SAR 2.2 billion ($586.6 million) to develop multi-purpose cargo terminals at eight of the Kingdom’s ports.

Acting President of Mawani, Mazen Al-Turki, announced the deals during a signing ceremony held on Monday, describing the move as another milestone in Saudi Arabia’s continued infrastructure development under government leadership.

These 20-year contracts are part of a strategic public-private partnership, bringing together local and international investors to enhance operational capabilities and increase the handling capacity of Saudi ports. The initiative aligns with the objectives of the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, which seeks to position the Kingdom as a global logistics hub.

Al-Turki emphasized that these new agreements build upon previous privatization deals, including the development of container terminals at Jeddah Islamic Port and King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, with investments exceeding SAR 16 billion. The Authority has also signed agreements to develop 20 logistics zones across the country, backed by over SAR 10 billion in investments.

He added that the latest contracts reflect the significant transformation and strategic evolution of Saudi Arabia’s ports, contributing to improved international performance indicators and reinforcing the Kingdom’s role as a key player in the global maritime industry.

Minister of Transport and Logistics Services and Chairman of Mawani, Eng. Saleh Al-Jasser, noted that the growing flow of private-sector investment demonstrates the attractiveness of Saudi ports and the logistics sector. He highlighted recent advancements in operational efficiency and maritime connectivity, supported by major global and national companies.

Al-Jasser affirmed that the Kingdom’s transport ecosystem will continue expanding its partnerships with the private sector across all regions and domains, with the new contracts marking the continuation of strategic collaborations with leading global and local port operators.

Under the newly signed contracts, the Saudi Global Ports Company will develop, manage, and operate multi-purpose terminals at east coast ports, including King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, Jubail Commercial Port, King Fahd Industrial Port in Jubail, and Ras Al Khair Port.

Meanwhile, Red Sea Gateway Terminal will handle similar operations on the west coast, covering Jeddah Islamic Port, Yanbu Commercial Port, King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, and Jazan Port.

At King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, the agreements include modernizing cargo handling with state-of-the-art STS and RTG cranes, reach stackers, trucks, and trailers, aimed at reducing truck turnaround times, vessel berthing durations, and boosting overall efficiency.