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Primary Listings Maintain Strategic Allure in Saudi Market Despite Slower Momentum

A trader monitors the stock screen at the Saudi Stock Exchange (AFP). 
A trader monitors the stock screen at the Saudi Stock Exchange (AFP). 
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Primary Listings Maintain Strategic Allure in Saudi Market Despite Slower Momentum

A trader monitors the stock screen at the Saudi Stock Exchange (AFP). 
A trader monitors the stock screen at the Saudi Stock Exchange (AFP). 

Despite a noticeable slowdown in the pace of initial public offerings (IPOs) during the first five months of 2025, the Saudi stock market continues to attract strategic listings, reinforcing its commitment to the economic diversification goals of Vision 2030.

The lull follows an exceptional year in 2024, with analysts attributing the current deceleration to a combination of global factors. Chief among them are the 7% decline in the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) since the start of the year and intensifying geopolitical and trade tensions, particularly in the Middle East.

Nonetheless, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, buoyed by quality offerings in high-impact sectors. A case in point is the recent IPO of flynas, which debuted on the Saudi stock exchange (Tadawul) amidst heightened regional instability, notably the escalating Iran-Israel conflict.

The airline’s listing garnered strong institutional interest, generating an oversubscription of over SAR 409 billion ($109 billion). However, its first trading session reflected market nervousness, with shares dropping as much as 12% before recovering to close at SAR 77.80, a 2.75% loss. The debut saw a flurry of trading activity, with over 12 million shares exchanged in under an hour, valued at nearly SAR 900 million.

The challenges facing regional carriers, ranging from airspace closures to route changes, have significantly inflated operational costs. Still, the IPO marked the first major listing on the main market since the outbreak of recent military tensions, underlining investor interest in key sectors despite a turbulent backdrop.

flynas floated 51.3 million shares, representing 30% of its post-offer capital, with 80% allocated to institutional investors and 20% to retail. The company’s market cap at listing was SAR 13.7 billion.

The broader IPO landscape has been quieter compared to 2024, which saw 40 offerings totaling SAR 15.2 billion, including 14 listings on the main market and 26 on the parallel market (Nomu). The Saudi bourse ranked 9th globally in IPO volume and 7th in IPO returns last year, according to the Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) board member Abdulaziz bin Hassan.

Yet despite fewer IPOs this year, the focus has shifted toward strategic sectors. The March listing of Umm Al Qura for Development & Construction (Masar), which soared 30% on its debut, highlights investor appetite for real estate plays tied to national projects. Masar’s shares climbed from SAR 15 at IPO to SAR 23 by early June.

In contrast, United Carton Industries Company, which listed in late May at SAR 50, fell to SAR 41.35 amid a 46% drop in first-quarter profits. Still, experts note the firm’s market niche in corrugated packaging gives it long-term relevance.

Commenting on market dynamics, Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, emphasized the resilience of the Saudi exchange. He noted that Vision 2030 continues to drive economic diversification and investor confidence, even as oil prices exert a more contained influence, mainly on energy giants like Aramco.

Al-Farraj also pointed to macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates, stressing that elevated costs in housing and construction materials are pressuring real estate margins. However, expectations of interest rate cuts later in 2025 could provide a much-needed boost to real estate and financial services.

 

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IMF: Middle East Faces Pivotal Economic Moment

Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
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IMF: Middle East Faces Pivotal Economic Moment

Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund said the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan were facing a pivotal and exceptionally difficult moment in their modern economic history after the war that broke out on Feb. 28, 2026, describing it as a severe and multifaceted shock to one of the world’s most strategically important economic corridors.

The IMF said the conflict was not merely a border crisis but had disrupted “three pillars of stability, energy markets, trade routes, and business confidence,” triggering a global energy shock and weakening supply chains.

Amid these challenges, Saudi Arabia’s economy emerged as a model of resilience, showing what the IMF described as “exceptional sturdiness” that enabled it to absorb the impact of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in regional output, supported by the pillars of Vision 2030, which strengthened fiscal discipline and logistical flexibility.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said while presenting an update of the Regional Economic Outlook in Washington, on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, that the war was reshaping the region’s economic outlook.

At the center of the shock was energy, he said, noting that the Strait of Hormuz, “the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply and about one-quarter of global LNG trade normally transit,” had come close to a standstill.

He said disruptions and shutdowns had cut oil and gas output across Gulf Cooperation Council countries, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel, while “European gas prices rose by roughly 60 percent, exceeding the spike observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” putting global energy security at risk.

He said energy disruptions caused by the war would weigh heavily on Gulf exporters, while oil-importing countries such as Egypt and Jordan were facing higher commodity prices and weaker remittance flows.

More broadly, the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to see a marked slowdown in growth this year, with real GDP projected at about 1.1%, significantly below pre-war forecasts, before a recovery in 2027, according to the IMF.

Azour said the shock extended beyond oil and gas, noting that “commodity disruptions extend beyond oil and gas,” affecting fertilizers, chemicals, and other products in which the region holds a strategic position.

He warned that rising food costs were directly threatening vulnerable populations, saying that “these price increases translate directly into higher food costs for some of the world’s most vulnerable populations,” particularly in import-dependent economies across the region and beyond.

He added that the conflict had also affected services, saying, “air traffic collapsed at major Gulf hubs, maritime insurance premiums surged, shipping routes lengthened, and logistics chains weakened,” highlighting the broad impact on aviation and logistics.

The IMF said some oil-importing economies in the region relied heavily on Gulf countries for energy imports and financial flows, leaving them exposed if the conflict intensified or persisted.

Saudi experience

Azour said one of the most important lessons from the war and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz was the need to diversify trade routes.

“This shock underscores the importance of building greater resilience and strengthening integration,” he said, adding that this includes “diversifying trade routes and deepening regional cooperation,” to ensure the continued flow of goods and energy.

He said Saudi Arabia’s approach under its strategic vision went beyond infrastructure development to a broader reshaping of logistics networks. By expanding alternative ports on the Red Sea and strengthening land and rail connectivity, the kingdom reduced its reliance on a single maritime chokepoint.

He said this ability to create parallel trade routes allowed Saudi trade to continue effectively despite disruptions to regional corridors, offering a model for protecting economic security and ensuring uninterrupted supply flows.

Egypt

Azour said economic reforms implemented by Egypt, along with stronger policy buffers, were helping the country better manage external shocks.

He said allowing the exchange rate to become more flexible helped absorb shocks, while higher reserves provided reassurance to markets.

Regional divergence

The IMF report highlighted a sharp divergence across countries. Qatar faced a steep downgrade to growth forecasts due to damage to its gas infrastructure, while Oman showed relative resilience given its geographic position outside the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, financing pressures increased on Egypt, Pakistan, and Jordan as sovereign spreads widened, prompting Azour to stress that the IMF stood ready to support countries.

He said that if oil production recovered and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, countries would be able to increase output quickly, adding that higher oil prices compared with pre-2026 levels would help producers recover some of their losses from the crisis.

Business

Pakistan Central Bank Receives $2 billion from Saudi Arabia as Part of Broader Financial Support Package

Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
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Pakistan Central Bank Receives $2 billion from Saudi Arabia as Part of Broader Financial Support Package

Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).

Pakistan announced that it has received $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance as part of a broader financial support package.

Earlier, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, said that Saudi Arabia had committed to depositing an additional $3 billion, while extending an existing $5 billion loan for three years instead of renewing it annually.

This support comes as Pakistan faces repayment of $3.5 billion to the United Arab Emirates, putting pressure on its reserves, which stand at about $16.4 billion.

Saudi Arabia has a history of assisting Pakistan during economic crises, including a $6 billion support package in 2018 that included deposits and deferred oil payments.

Business

Gold Rises as Middle East Optimism Calms Inflation Fears

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
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Gold Rises as Middle East Optimism Calms Inflation Fears

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)

Gold prices rose on Thursday as growing optimism about a possible end to conflicts in the Middle East calmed inflation worries and improved prospects for lower interest rates.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,815.15 per ounce by 0926 GMT, after rising to a one-month high in the previous session. US gold futures for June delivery gained 0.3% to $4,836.50.

"For the month of March gold was under pressure because of the need for liquidity in the metal following the war, but that is kind of mostly run its course, that need for liquidity," said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.

Shah added that he expects gold prices to remain very well supported as concerns surrounding central bank independence and dollar debasement risk still remain prevalent, Reuters reported.

Optimism grew on Thursday that the war in the Middle East may be near an end, with a key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the administration of US President Donald Trump talking up hopes for a deal that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices were up more than 1% on Thursday, but remained well below the $100-a-barrel mark.

"Gold remains supported amid renewed optimism around de-escalation. The pullback in oil prices is easing some of the inflation concerns that weighed on prices earlier in the conflict. The move reflects a broader shift in market focus," ING analysts said.

Global equities vaulted past their previous all-time highs in Asian trading as optimism grew about a deal to end the Iran war.

Gold prices fell to as low as $4,097.99 an ounce on March 23 as high inflation concerns due to soaring energy prices raised expectations of a more hawkish approach to intrest rates by the US Federal Reserve, weighing on the non-yielding metal's demand.

Prices have since recovered as investors now see a more than 34% chance of at least one US interest rate cut by 2026-end, up from 32% a day prior, as per CME's FedWatch Tool.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $80.12 per ounce, platinum gained 1% to $2,130.25, and palladium was up 0.9% at $1,587.25.