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China's Iran Oil Imports Surge in June on Rising Shipments, Teapot Demand

FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
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China's Iran Oil Imports Surge in June on Rising Shipments, Teapot Demand

FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS

China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the recent conflict in the region and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said.

The world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude brought in more than 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data.

Kpler's data put the month-to-date average of China's Iranian oil and condensate imports at 1.46 million bpd as of June 27, up from one million bpd in May.

The rising imports are fueled in part by the accelerated discharge of high volumes of Iranian oil on the water after export loadings from Iran reached a multi-year high of 1.83 million bpd in May, Kpler data showed.

It typically takes at least one month for Iranian oil to reach Chinese ports, Reuters reported.

Robust loadings in May and early June mean China's Iran imports are poised to remain elevated, Kpler and Vortexa analysts said.

Independent Chinese "teapot" refineries, the main buyers of Iranian oil, also showed strong demand for the discount barrels as their stockpiles depleted, said Xu Muyu, Kpler's senior analyst.

A possible relaxing of US President Donald Trump's policy on Iranian oil sanctions could further bolster Chinese buying, she added.

Trump said on Wednesday that Washington has not given up its maximum pressure campaign on Iran - including restrictions on Iranian oil sales - but signaled a potential easing in enforcement to help the country rebuild.

For this week, Iranian Light crude oil was being traded at around $2 a barrel below ICE Brent for end-July to early-August deliveries, two traders familiar with the matter said, compared to discounts of $3.30-$3.50 a barrel previously for July deliveries.

Narrower discounts were spurred by worries that oil flows could be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway between Iran and Oman, traders said.

Market fears for a closure of the chokepoint had escalated after last weekend's US attack on Iranian nuclear sites but eased after Iran and Israel on Tuesday signaled a ceasefire.

Tighter discounts for Iranian oil come amid a retreat in futures prices. ICE Brent crude futures hovered at $68 per barrel on Friday, their level before the Israel-Iran conflict began and down 19% from Monday's five-month peak.

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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)

Gold prices rose on Tuesday on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, but were poised for their worst month in more than 17 years as higher energy prices dimmed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year.

Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,561.68 per ounce, as of 0427 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained 0.7% to $4,590.

The dollar eased, making greenback-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

"Gold prices are bouncing in ⁠early Asia-Pacific trade ⁠after US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran... That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Trump told aides that he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and leave a ⁠complex operation to reopen it for a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

"Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk," Reuters quoted Spivak as saying.

Bullion has fallen more than 13% so far this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008, weighed down by a stronger dollar and fading expectations of a US interest rate cut ⁠this year. ⁠Prices are still up about 5% for the quarter.

Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation.

Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Before the war in the Middle East erupted, there were expectations of two Fed rate cuts for this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs said in a note that it still expects gold to reach $5,400 per ounce by end 2026 on central bank diversification and Fed easing.

Spot silver rose 2.9% to $72.04 per ounce, spot platinum gained 0.6% to $1,911.15, and palladium was up 2% at $1,434.23.

Business

Oil Slips, Stocks Rise as Report Says Trump Willing to End War

The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
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Oil Slips, Stocks Rise as Report Says Trump Willing to End War

The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP

Oil prices sank and most stocks rose Tuesday, following a report that indicated Donald Trump was willing to end the Iran war even if the key Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

But investors remain wary as the Wall Street Journal story came on the same day the US president threatened to destroy Iran's key oil export hub and desalination plants unless it accepts a deal, while also suggesting diplomacy was making headway, said AFP.

The news comes as governments around the world scramble to implement measures to ease the burden of surging fuel prices while also looking to conserve energy, with one-fifth of global crude and gas passing through the waterway.

The Journal, citing administration officials, said Trump and his aides had come to the conclusion that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend the length of the mission past his four- to six-week timeline.

It added that he had decided to focus on battering Iran's missiles and navy, before looking to pressure Iran diplomatically to reopen the Strait.

Both main oil contracts fell Tuesday, though West Texas Intermediate and Brent were still sitting well above $100 a barrel.

And most equity markets rose. Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Jakarta were all up, while Tokyo fluctuated.

Seoul, Taipei and Manila fell.

However, Trump also threatened Monday to destroy Kharg Island, through which most of Iran's crude passes, if a peace deal is not reached.

He warned US forces would destroy "all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)."

Destroying civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, experts say.

Iran has previously threatened to retaliate by targeting energy infrastructure and desalination plants in its Arab neighbors that host the US military, fanning fears of a wider conflict.

But Trump also said officials were speaking to a "more reasonable regime" in Tehran, which has denied any talks and accused the president of lying about negotiations as cover while preparing a ground invasion.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced hope for working with elements within Iran's government.

Market experts warned that any US ground operation or wider Iranian retaliation could send oil prices to levels not seen since July 2008, when Brent hit almost $150 a barrel.

'De-escalation and re-escalation'

In a sign Iran was determined to keep control of Hormuz, state media reported Monday that a parliamentary commission had approved plans to impose tolls on vessels transiting it.

With Trump flipping between hope for talks and threats, analysts said investors were having to walk a tightrope.

"The market continues to be headline-driven as the Trump Administration has delivered a variety of messages surrounding de-escalation and re-escalation of the war in Iran," Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek said.

With the war now in its fifth week, governments are moving to shore up their economies.

Economy ministers and central bankers from the G7 club of rich countries met in Paris to discuss the war's effects, with many countries introducing energy-saving measures or cutting fuel taxes to help consumers.

Norway said it will temporarily cut diesel and petrol taxes and Bangladesh ordered civil servants to switch off lights and turn down air conditioning to save power.

Sri Lanka announced a nearly 40 percent increase in electricity prices from Wednesday as it battles an energy shortage. Colombo has raised fuel prices three times this month, increasing them by more than a third, and has imposed a four-day working week in a bid to save energy.

"From here, the burden shifts from military outcomes to economic endurance. The question is no longer how high oil spikes, but how long elevated energy costs bleed into growth, margins, and consumption," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell also provided a little support, saying Monday the bank could look past energy shocks because they "have tended to come and go pretty quickly" but monetary policy changes take time to flow through the economy.

While the spike in energy prices threatens to send inflation soaring again, he added that officials "feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out" and "inflation expectations do appear to be well-anchored beyond the short term".

Business

IMF: Iran War 'Shock' is Dimming Outlook for Many Economies

FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
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IMF: Iran War 'Shock' is Dimming Outlook for Many Economies

FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo

The war in the Middle East has caused serious disruption to the economies of frontline countries, and is dimming the outlook for many economies that had just started to recover from previous crises, the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday.

In a blog published by the global lender's top economists, the IMF said the war launched by US and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28 was causing a global, but asymmetric shock and leading to tighter financial conditions.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure had caused the largest disruption to the global oil market in history, given that 25%-30% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas normally passed through the narrow waterway, according to ⁠the International Energy ⁠Agency.

The war's impact would depend on how long it lasts, how far it spreads and how much damage it inflicts on infrastructure and supply chains, the IMF said, urging countries to carefully calibrate any measures to manage the shock.

The IMF was also supporting member countries with policy advice and financial assistance, where needed and in coordination with the international community, the fund said.

The IMF statement came as finance ⁠leaders from the Group of Seven economic powers said they were ready to take "all necessary measures" to safeguard energy market stability and limit broader economic spillovers from recent volatility.

The International Energy Agency's 32 members agreed earlier this month to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat a spike in global crude prices.

The IMF blog said low-income countries were at particular risk of food insecurity, given higher food and fertilizer prices, and might need more external support at a time when many advanced economies were scaling back their international assistance.

"Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth," the economists wrote, according to Reuters. They noted that ⁠large energy importers ⁠in Asia and Europe were bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input prices, while countries in Africa and Asia were finding it hard to access the supplies they need, even at inflated prices.

A long conflict and the associated uncertainty and geopolitical risk could keep energy expensive and strain countries that rely on imports, tensions could linger and inflation could prove hard to tame, they said.

The IMF said it will release a fuller assessment in its World Economic Outlook, to be published on April 14, during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

If elevated energy and food prices persist, they will fuel inflation worldwide, the authors wrote, noting that sustained oil-price spikes have historically tended to push inflation higher and growth lower.

The war could also fuel expectations that inflation will remain higher for longer, which could translate into higher wages and prices, making it harder to contain the shock without a sharper slowdown, they said.