IMF Says US Tax, Spending Bill Runs Counter to Deficit-Cutting Advice

 Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
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IMF Says US Tax, Spending Bill Runs Counter to Deficit-Cutting Advice

 Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)

The massive US tax and spending bill slated for a final vote in Congress runs counter to the International Monetary Fund's recommendations that Washington reduce fiscal deficits over the medium term, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday.

Kozack told a regular news briefing that there was a broad consensus that the Republican bill will add to US fiscal deficits, while the US needs to start a fiscal consolidation.

"From the IMF side, we have been consistent in saying that the US will need to reduce its fiscal deficit over time to put public debt-to-GDP on a decisive downward path," Kozack said. "Of course, the sooner that process starts to reduce the deficit, the more gradual the deficit reduction can be over time."

Kozack said that there were many policy options for the US to reduce deficits and debt, adding: "It is, of course, important to build consensus within the United States about how it will address its these chronic fiscal deficits."

In recent years, the IMF has recommended that the US raise taxes, including on middle income earners, to close fiscal deficits. The Republican tax bill extends 2017 tax cuts and adds new tax breaks for many Americans.

The IMF advice is at odds with the views of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has consistently said that he disagrees with traditional budget forecasts and believes that the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will spur additional US economic growth that will boost revenues.

The United States is the biggest shareholder of the IMF. Bessent, who manages the US stake, has criticized the Fund for straying too far from its core economic stability and surveillance missions.

Kozack said that the IMF was examining details of the US legislation and the likely impact on the economy, and will incorporate its analysis into the late July update of its World Economic Outlook global growth forecasts.

The forecasts also will assess the state of play on US tariffs, after President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline to subject many countries to sharply higher duties unless they agree trade deals.



IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
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IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation.

In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth.

At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July.

According to Reuters, Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook.

"While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks.

She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path.

Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials.

Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight.

For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms.

More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.