Gold Heads for Fresh Record High, Propelled by Fed Rate Cut Bets

(FILES) A refiner stacks gold bullion after being removed from casts at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney on April 29, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
(FILES) A refiner stacks gold bullion after being removed from casts at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney on April 29, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
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Gold Heads for Fresh Record High, Propelled by Fed Rate Cut Bets

(FILES) A refiner stacks gold bullion after being removed from casts at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney on April 29, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
(FILES) A refiner stacks gold bullion after being removed from casts at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney on April 29, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)

Gold was set for another record high on Tuesday, holding well above the $3,600-mark crossed in the previous session, as growing bets of a US rate cut weakened the dollar and pushed bond yields lower, boosting demand for the precious metal.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,647.98 per ounce, as of 0726 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,659.10 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% higher to $3,688.10.

Gold prices have gained nearly 39% this year, following a 27% jump in 2024, bolstered by a soft dollar, strong central bank accumulation, dovish monetary policy and heightened global uncertainty, Reuters said.

The dollar index fell to a near seven-week low against rivals, making gold more attractive to other currency holders, while benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields held near five-month lows.

"Bulls have been energized by the market’s rate cut convictions, sending gold to fresh record highs. The softer dollar also helped pave the way for $3,600, while bullion-backed inflows and central bank purchases add to the strong mix of tailwinds," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.money.

Traders expect an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week and a 12% probability of a jumbo 50-bp reduction, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed. This comes after Friday's data showed U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August.

Lower interest rates pressure the dollar and bond yields, raising the appeal of the non-yielding bullion.

Investors now await US producer price data on Wednesday and consumer price data on Thursday for further rate cut cues.

"We may see spot gold flirting with $3,700 this week if markets are shown drastically lowered revisions to US jobs data and shockingly low CPI prints. Still, gold markets are likely to reserve their bigger price reaction for the latest policy clues out of the FOMC meeting," Han Tan added.

Elsewhere, spot silver edged 0.1% higher to $41.35 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.8% to $1,394.12 and palladium climbed 1.4% to $1,149.61.



Oil Falls as Trump Comments on Iran Talks Ease Supply Concerns

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows the Portuguese flagged oil and chemical tanker ship CB Pacific docked at the Moran Shipping Agencies’ Citgo Petroleum Quincy/Braintree Terminal, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows the Portuguese flagged oil and chemical tanker ship CB Pacific docked at the Moran Shipping Agencies’ Citgo Petroleum Quincy/Braintree Terminal, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
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Oil Falls as Trump Comments on Iran Talks Ease Supply Concerns

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows the Portuguese flagged oil and chemical tanker ship CB Pacific docked at the Moran Shipping Agencies’ Citgo Petroleum Quincy/Braintree Terminal, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows the Portuguese flagged oil and chemical tanker ship CB Pacific docked at the Moran Shipping Agencies’ Citgo Petroleum Quincy/Braintree Terminal, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Friday as Middle East supply concerns eased after US President Donald Trump said the country would not attack Iran before US elections next month, amid productive talks to end their war that has disrupted global energy markets.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.68, or 1.61%, to $102.6 a barrel by 0819 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.31, or 1.43%, to $90.18, Reuters reported.

On a weekly basis, Brent prices are set to rise after settling 4% higher on Thursday, while WTI is set for a slight decline.

The US President’s pledge not to renew military attacks on Iran before the midterm elections along with China’s resumption of product exports were moving prices lower, PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said.

Yet, the escalation of atrocities in ⁠the Arabian Gulf ⁠and around the Red Sea “has dashed hopes that swelling oil exports from the region will be sustainable and, as such, a protracted fall in oil prices in the foreseeable future seems implausible."

On Thursday, Trump said Washington was having "productive discussions" with Iran and said no attack was planned before the November 3 midterm congressional elections after media reports that he was considering an attack before then.

Iran's Tasnim news agency reported the same day ⁠that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran is reviewing the US response to its proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.

"The prospect of easing tensions still needs to be reinforced by concrete progress in negotiations and improvements in shipping safety through the Strait of Hormuz," said XS.com analyst Linh Tran.

The US is still pressuring Iran economically to try to end the war, now in its eighth month, imposing sanctions on Thursday targeting individuals, networks and 17 vessels for transporting Iranian crude, oil products and petrochemicals.

Prices have been volatile this week as threats to shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which carried shipments equal to about 20% of global ⁠oil and fuel ⁠before the war, have increased in October.

The Middle East war and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have disrupted supplies of refined fuels such as gasoline, jet fuel and especially diesel fuel.

The oil market is also contending with Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico. Because of the storm, producers there have shut in about 1.3 million barrels per day, or 62.9%, of current oil production as of Thursday, according to the US Marine Minerals Administration.

"This disruption provides additional support for oil prices, but the duration of its impact will depend on post-storm facility inspections and the pace of operational recovery," Tran said.


London Copper Rises on Supply Risks, China Buying

Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)
Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)
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London Copper Rises on Supply Risks, China Buying

Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)
Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)

London copper rose on Friday, recovering from the previous session's loss, as mine disruptions and buying in top consumer China supported prices.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.16% at $14,475 a metric ton by 0700 GMT, after dropping 1.15% in the previous session. It has climbed 1.52% so far this week, Reuters reported.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.57% to 110,110 yuan a ‌ton, tracking overnight ‌losses in London.

"Copper is near record ‌levels, ⁠supported by supply-side issues," ⁠Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note.

The Yangshan copper premium <SMM-CUYP-CN> - a gauge of China's appetite for imported copper - ose to $125 a ton, its highest since November 2022, on Thursday, when China returned from a week-long holiday.

Copper in SHFE-monitored warehouses <CU-STX-SGH> increased by ⁠20,000 tons (51.6%) during the shortened week, but ‌stocks at 58,744 tons nonetheless ‌remain thin.

A workers' union at Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine in ‌Chile said their ongoing strike would begin to ‌weigh on outputin November. Antofagasta earlier downplayed the impact of the strike.

Disruptions at other mines added to already heightened supply risk, while stocks outside the US have fallen as copper has ‌been pulled into the country ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper imports.

The dollar ⁠index, ⁠which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, nudged lower. Oil prices also edged down on Friday.

Both had earlier in the week weighed on industrial metals.

A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, while elevated energy prices threaten to stoke inflationary concerns and weigh on economic activity.

Among LME metals, aluminium gained 0.79%, zinc gained 1.25%, lead gained 0.7%, nickel gained 0.66% and tin gained 0.96%.

On the SHFE, aluminium lost 0.49%, zinc lost 1.12%, lead lost 1.45%, nickel lost 0.38% and tin dropped 4.23%.


China and EU Trade Envoys Seek Ways to Ease Tensions over Growing Imbalances

EU and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, March 20, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
EU and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, March 20, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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China and EU Trade Envoys Seek Ways to Ease Tensions over Growing Imbalances

EU and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, March 20, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
EU and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, March 20, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The top trade envoys for China and the European Union were wrapping up two days of talks Friday aimed at calming escalating tensions over growing imbalances between the two giant economies.

EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic traveled to Beijing saying it was crucial that the negotiations deliver “tangible outcomes” in rebalancing trade between China and the 27-nation bloc.

It was unclear, however, if the two sides would find the will to resolve key factors behind China’s growing trade surplus, which hit 360 billion euros ($410 billion) last year.

China is pushing for the EU to stop blocking its imports of advanced computer chipmaking machines, restrictions imposed on national security grounds at Washington's behest.

Sefcovic said the talks this week were the culmination of three months of intensive work. He had set an October deadline for meaningful results on trade rebalancing.

Earlier in the week, the Chinese Commerce Ministry issued a statement urging the EU to avoid protectionist measures, warning that such moves could backfire.

Trade tensions have grown in recent months, with both sides imposing or considering curbs on each other’s imports.

The EU has moved to limit imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles and EV batteries and enacted measures to protect the European steel industry. It also is limiting duty-free imports of e-commerce small parcels, essentially targeting Chinese fast fashion firms.

Last week, China launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports from the EU of p-nitrotoluene, a chemical compound used in dyes and pharmaceuticals.

Chinese officials and businesses have raised concerns over reports some EU members are pushing for new measures to protect local industries.

Worries over surging Chinese exports to Europe and other parts of the world in what some are calling a China shock 2.0 have deepened as the US, especially since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, has raised tariffs and enacted other measures to try to reduce its own huge trade deficit with Beijing.

Despite the backlash from some of its trading partners, China's global trade surplus hit $1.2 trillion in 2025 and is forecast to surpass $1 trillion again this year.

The EU's trade deficit with China widened to 103.34 billion euros (about $116 billion) in the April-July quarter, as imports rose to 153.63 billion euros ($172.3 billion) ,while European exports to China climbed to 50.3 billion euros ($56.4 billion), according to EU statistics.