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Oil Little Changed as Investors Weigh Gaza Ceasefire, Stalled Ukraine Talks

Model of natural gas pipeline and decreasing stock graph, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Model of natural gas pipeline and decreasing stock graph, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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Oil Little Changed as Investors Weigh Gaza Ceasefire, Stalled Ukraine Talks

Model of natural gas pipeline and decreasing stock graph, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Model of natural gas pipeline and decreasing stock graph, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed a ceasefire deal in Gaza that could ease tensions in the Middle East against stalled peace talks in Ukraine that could sustain sanctions on Russia and curb its exports.

Brent crude futures were down 12 cents to $66.13 a barrel at 0943 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 14 cents to $62.41.

Egypt's state-affiliated Qahera TV reported a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas had officially come into effect after noon in the region (0900 GMT), when the enemies signed it in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said it would take effect only once ratified by the Israeli cabinet, which was scheduled to meet later on Thursday.

Under the deal, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel.

'WIDE-RANGING' IMPLICATIONS FOR OIL MARKETS

"The peace agreement is a major breakthrough in recent Middle Eastern history – its implications for oil markets could be wide-ranging, from the possibility of a decrease in the Houthis' attacks in the Red Sea to an increase in the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran and, eventually, the possibility for Iran to increase its crude and product exports," Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note.

Galimberti also said attempts at a ceasefire deal have fallen apart previously.

The war in Gaza has supported oil prices due to the potential risk to global supply if the fighting developed into a wider regional conflict.

Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, said the Gaza ceasefire was unlikely to change oil supply in the Middle East as the OPEC+ producer group has not hit its increased production targets.

The group, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, agreed on Sunday to a November output hike that was smaller than market expectations, easing oversupply concerns.

Prices had gained around 1% on Wednesday to reach a one-week high after investors viewed stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal as a sign that sanctions against Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, would continue for some time.

Meanwhile, total weekly US petroleum products supplied, a proxy for US oil consumption, rose last week to 21.99 million barrels per day, the most since December 2022, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand began on a softer note in October as numerous consumption indicators, including container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles, truck toll mileage in Germany and container throughput in China, pointed to a moderation in activity.

Global oil demand averaged 105.9 million bpd in the first seven days of October, up 300,000 bpd from last year's level, though 90,000 bpd lower than JP Morgan's estimates, its analysts said.

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Business

Gold Rallies as Dollar, Treasury Yields Soften after US Midterm Results

Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)
Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)
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Gold Rallies as Dollar, Treasury Yields Soften after US Midterm Results

Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)
Gold chips displayed at a state-owned gold retail store in Surabaya, East Java (AFP)

Gold climbed to its highest level in over two weeks on Thursday as the fallout from the US midterm election results rippled through the global financial and oil markets.

Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,124.89 per ounce by 0752 GMT. It touched $4,146.63 per ounce, its highest level since October 20, earlier in ‌the session.

Bullion ‌climbed about 3.4% on Wednesday, its biggest ‌daily gain ⁠since August 19.

US ⁠gold futures for December delivery climbed 1.5% to $4,135.40, Reuters said.

A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields have helped gold recover above the key $4,000 level, though holding above that threshold remains crucial for the recovery outlook, said Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com.

"If investment flows and yield movements continue to provide support, gold could stabilize ⁠above $4,000, also opening up an opportunity for a ‌recovery toward $4,200, followed by $4,400."

Oil prices ‌were slightly higher after earlier falling for a fourth day on ‌expectations that the losses US President Donald Trump's Republican Party ‌suffered in congressional elections this week may reduce the risk of further escalation of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Lower energy prices ease inflationary pressures, reducing expectations that the central bank will keep interest rates higher ‌for longer, supporting the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

The dollar slid to its lowest in more ⁠than a ⁠month, and 10-year US Treasury yield fell to its lowest since September 10.

A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.

Market participants now await the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday to further gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

Meanwhile, Citi has a 0-3 month price target of $4,500 per ounce for gold, the brokerage said on Wednesday, as it sees substantial upside potential if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Yemen/Saudi conflict de-escalates.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.8% to $52.63 per ounce, platinum gained 1.2% to $1,514.20 and palladium climbed 2.2% to $1,026.83.

Business

Tech Hit by New AI Worries on Positive Day for Most Markets

Hong Kong stocks rallied more than three percent on a broadly healthy day for Asian markets. Leung Man Hei / AFP
Hong Kong stocks rallied more than three percent on a broadly healthy day for Asian markets. Leung Man Hei / AFP
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Tech Hit by New AI Worries on Positive Day for Most Markets

Hong Kong stocks rallied more than three percent on a broadly healthy day for Asian markets. Leung Man Hei / AFP
Hong Kong stocks rallied more than three percent on a broadly healthy day for Asian markets. Leung Man Hei / AFP

Tech firms tumbled Thursday as investors contemplated the outlook for the AI boom after Democrats swept the US midterms, partly on the back of growing anger over the rapid building of data centers across the country.

However, broader markets mostly rallied and oil plunged after Donald Trump's Republicans were dealt a historic defeat that was blamed on high prices, tariffs and the Iran war.

The result stoked hopes he will look to wind down the Middle East conflict, which would help temper inflation and even soften his stance on trade.

But AI-linked firms came under the cosh amid fears for planned data center construction projects as well as renewed scrutiny from newly installed Democrats on Capitol Hill.

The sector had already been in the crosshairs of investors owing to questions about the vast sums pumped into new facilities, R&D and chip development, and when any companies would see a profit.

Charu Chanana at Saxo Markets said the vote was accelerating a reassessment of AI that was already under way.

"A Democratic Congress introduces another layer of uncertainty: regulatory scrutiny," she wrote, adding that the three main risks were more oversight, data center restrictions and capital spending uncertainty.

"The congressional scrutiny could accelerate demands for AI safety standards, independent model evaluations and greater accountability for data center developers," she added.

However, she also said: "This is not the same as an outright anti-AI policy agenda. AI is strategically important for US competitiveness, particularly against China, and there remains considerable bipartisan interest in maintaining American leadership."

Chip firms were hammered in Asia, with South Korea's SK hynix off more than seven percent and Samsung 5.5 percent down.

Tokyo-listed Kioxia dived more than 13 percent and Advantest tanked 14.7 percent, while Tokyo Electron lost more than nine percent and SoftBank 6.8 percent.

US Nasdaq futures fell more than one percent.

Broader markets performed better as investors rotated into other sectors including finance, auto, mining and manufacturing names.

Seoul, the poster child of the AI-led surge in the first half of the year, shed more than five percent, while Taipei lost more than three percent. Tokyo gave up 1.8 percent.

But there were healthy gains in Hong Kong, helped by hopes for an easing of trade tensions between the US and China, with tech titans including Alibaba, JD.com and Tencent leading the way amid a shift into beaten-down regional stocks.

Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Mumbai, Jakarta and Manila also advanced.

Oil continued to fall after diving more than eight percent Wednesday on the US result amid optimism Trump will seek a deal to end the Iran war, which has been a key driver of the inflation spike that has hammered US consumers.

Hopes were given a boost when Vice President JD Vance said in a social media post that the Republican defeat was due to the unpopularity of the eight-month-old conflict.

The drop in crude prices -- both main contracts are now below $100 for the first time since the start of October -- has also tempered inflation worries and, in turn, Treasury yields, which dipped again Thursday.

The lower cost of borrowing has also been helped by the prospect that gridlock on Capitol Hill would lead to less spending.

That also weighed on the dollar, which held losses against its peers in Asian trade.

Business

Türkiye Showcases Renewables Surge, but Leaves Coal Intact

Türkiye is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity. But as host of COP31, the country faces growing pressure to match its clean energy ambitions with a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Yasin AKGUL / AFP
Türkiye is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity. But as host of COP31, the country faces growing pressure to match its clean energy ambitions with a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Yasin AKGUL / AFP
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Türkiye Showcases Renewables Surge, but Leaves Coal Intact

Türkiye is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity. But as host of COP31, the country faces growing pressure to match its clean energy ambitions with a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Yasin AKGUL / AFP
Türkiye is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity. But as host of COP31, the country faces growing pressure to match its clean energy ambitions with a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Yasin AKGUL / AFP

On a windy hillside about an hour's drive northwest of Istanbul, the Catalca power plant was one of Türkiye's first large-scale wind farms and has been feeding electricity into the grid for 18 years.

With an installed capacity of 93 megawatts, it generates 287 million kilowatt-hours of electricity a year, enough for around 115,000 households, said AFP.

"By replacing electricity that would otherwise come from fossil fuel-fired power plants, this output avoids 185,936 tons of carbon emissions each year," operator Sanko Enerji says.

Nearly two decades on, Catalca is one of nearly 300 wind farms, its giant turbines a symbol of the rapidly expanding capacity for renewable energy in Türkiye which is hosting the COP31 UN climate summit that opens in Antalya on Monday.

Last year, 43 percent of Türkiye's electricity came from clean energy sources, of which wind and solar accounted for 22 percent, according to energy think tank Ember.

With electrification emerging as one of the central themes of COP31, Türkiye has been pushing hard for it to be an implementation-focused summit that turns existing climate pledges into action.

Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has outlined plans to triple Türkiye's installed solar and wind capacity from around 40 gigawatts to 120 gigawatts by 2035.

But with coal still the leading source of power generation, Türkiye is under pressure to pair its impressive renewables growth with a definitive shift away from fossil fuels.

Not only is it still building coal-fired power plants, it has yet to set a date to phase out fossil fuels.

- Coal still dominant -

"Türkiye's continued reliance on coal, alongside plans for further expansion, highlights the contradiction at the heart of its current trajectory," Duygu Kutluay of Beyond Fossil Fuels told AFP.

Embracing an electrification agenda alone did not amount to a genuine energy transition because "coal remains the country's largest source of electricity generation", she said.

Coal-fired power plants accounted for 33.5 percent of Türkiye's electricity production in 2025, energy ministry figures show, with Ember saying almost two-thirds of its coal was imported.

Plans to expand coal capacity "risk locking in further fossil-fuel dependence", she warned.

"As Türkiye increases renewable capacity, it must ensure clean electricity replaces fossil-fuel generation rather than simply meeting additional demand," Kutluay said.

The challenge is not only expanding renewables but establishing "a clear pathway to phase out coal".

Asked about Türkiye's continuing reliance on coal, Bayraktar told AFP in February that Ankara prioritized securing affordable energy supplies and reducing dependence on imports.

"Coal can initially be replaced with gas, but in the medium and long term it can be substituted with nuclear," he said.

Ibrahim Erden, president of the Turkish Wind Energy Association, said every country's transition was different with "no single path that suits everyone".

- Need for investment -

Emin Emrah Danis, chief executive of MOBEN consultancy, said Türkiye's energy policy was shaped by rising electricity demand and the need for "baseload" generation to deliver constant power around the clock.

"This is why Türkiye has invested heavily in gas- and coal-fired power plants over the past 30 years," he told AFP.

"For coal's share of power generation to fall to meaningful levels, Türkiye needs substantial investment in electricity storage and nuclear power," he said, referring to battery storage for renewable power.

Türkiye is currently putting the finishing touches on the first reactor of its Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which should be online by the start of 2027, Bayraktar told an energy summit last week.

But Türkiye's nuclear expansion, with two more plants in the pipeline, was unlikely to add enough baseload capacity to replace coal-fired electricity generation before around 2040, Danis said.

And coal would likely remain part of the energy mix for decades, with the need for baseload power and dependence on imports making a full phase-out infeasible before "the mid-2050s".

Türkiye relies heavily on imports of oil, natural gas and coal from countries like Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.

Erden said infrastructure updates were essential to give greater place to renewables.

"We cannot simply shut down coal-fired power plants today and rely solely on wind and solar energy ... The technological and physical infrastructure is not yet capable of supporting that."

Beyond the climate argument, geopolitical tensions have also strengthened the case for domestic renewables.

"Renewables ... are not only one of the most effective tools for tackling climate change, but also an important means of strengthening energy security and reducing dependence on foreign supplies," he said.