The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on Wednesday that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has made a “rendezvous with reality” after reversing its forecast for 2023 in which it announced “the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.”
The IEA’s latest outlook signals that oil demand may continue rising into 2050, a sharp shift from its previous reports and a stark reminder of how dominant black gold remains in the global economy.
The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, published on Wednesday, maps out different trajectories for energy demand through 2050.
In a statement released on Wednesday, OPEC started with a quote from the IEA’s Executive Director in an interview with the Financial Times in September 2023, when he said: “We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era and we have to prepare ourselves for the next era.”
OPEC said: “It was clear and unambiguous: the IEA was stating to the world that oil, gas and coal were in the rearview mirror.”
OPEC had voiced its opinion based on an objective reading of the data, that this was not the case, but the IEA’s words indicated that they felt there was no need for debate.
“Peak fossil fuel demand was imminent. It was a fact. It was a definitive statement, but one that has come back to haunt the IEA. Just over two years later, the IEA’s bold assertions have had a rendezvous with reality,” OPEC said in its statement.
In the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025, its ‘Current Policy Scenario’ (CPS) states that “oil and gas demand do not peak” out to 2050 and that “oil remains the dominant fuel” over this period.
In terms of total liquids demand by 2050, OPEC’s World Oil Outlook is at just under 123 million barrels a day (mb/d) and the IEA’s CPS reports just over 119 mb/d. (On a volume equivalent basis, OPEC calculates total liquids demand in the IEA’s CPS at just over 121 mb/d by 2050).
“While OPEC acknowledge that the IEA published other scenarios, exhibiting alternative paths, in a surprising reversal, it is the first time in many years that it has recognized that oil and gas can be expected to play a large role in evolving future energy pathways,” the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stated.
In fact, it said, its new Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS) that provides a roadmap to achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking references the importance of an oil product, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
“It states that LPG underpins most new clean cooking access, increasing its use to around 3.4 mb/d in residential cooking by 2040,” OPEC said.
“It all underscores the need for all-energies, which is a core focus of OPEC’s research, outlooks and messaging in recent years.”
For oil, in particular, OPEC said the IEA’s talk of a global oil demand peak before the end of this decade was also accompanied by a call for a halt to new oil investments.
“Wishful thinking was driving the IEA’s oil investment story. Thankfully, we have witnessed U-turns on this in 2025,” it noted.
Also, OPEC quoted the IEA Executive Director as saying at CERA Week in March 2025 that there is a need for investment in oil and gas fields to support global energy security.
The Executive Director then went further in September when launching the report, The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, stating: “An absence of upstream investment would remove the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined production each year from the global market balance. The situation means that the industry has to run much faster just to stand still.”
OPEC said the CPS in the WEO supports this, stating that upstream oil and gas require the most investment in the coming decade when comparing all fuels.
Therefore, it noted, “the pushing of narratives, such as the need for no new oil investments, and the promotion of such scenarios as its ‘Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario – a ‘normative’, rather than an ‘exploratory’ one that has specific outcomes and builds a path backwards to help meet these – to the detriment of others is not helpful for charting realistic future energy pathways.”
The Organization affirmed that “this is particularly true for ensuring the necessary future investments are made, not only in production to meet consumer demand, but also in the vital technologies, such as Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage and Direct Air Capture, required to help reduce emissions.”
It said the reality is that today the world is currently consuming more oil, coal, gas, in fact, all energies, than ever before.
As OPEC has advocated on many occasions, the history of energy has been about additions, it noted.
Major energy sources have not disappeared, or been left in the rearview mirror. In fact, they continue to complement and even depend on each other, with this further driving demand.
For example, it said, renewables will be an important and expanding part of the future energy landscape, but their development requires a variety of oil products.
“To put it simply: our energy past has not been a series of replacement events, and nor will our energy future,” the statement said.
For too long, the fixation of industry commentators with ‘peaks,’ be they supply or demand, has inhibited sound analysis, good policy and the development of an investment friendly climate.
OPEC concluded by saying that the energy industry needs robust analysis based on data.
“We need facts, not fantasies. We need impartiality, not ideology. We hope that the IEA’s World Energy Outlook represents a return to the fold of analysis grounded in energy realities and that we have passed the peak in the misguided notion of ‘peak oil,’” it noted.
