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Oil Rises as Investors Weigh Outcome of Trump–Zelenskiy Meeting

Vehicles drive past the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. (AP)
Vehicles drive past the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. (AP)
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Oil Rises as Investors Weigh Outcome of Trump–Zelenskiy Meeting

Vehicles drive past the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. (AP)
Vehicles drive past the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. (AP)

Oil prices rose on Monday as investors weighed the outcome of talks between the US and Ukrainian presidents on a potential ​deal to end the war in Ukraine, as well as Middle East tensions that could disrupt supply.

Brent crude futures rose 67 cents, or 1.1%, to $61.31 per barrel at 0751 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 65 cents, or 1.15%, to $57.39.

Both benchmark prices fell more than 2% on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut and ‌the possibility of a ‌Ukraine peace deal ahead of weekend ‌talks between ⁠Ukrainian ​President ‌Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump.

Trump said on Sunday that he and Zelenskiy were "getting a lot closer, maybe very close" to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, while acknowledging that the fate of the disputed Donbas region remains a key unresolved issue.

The two leaders spoke at a ⁠joint press conference late Sunday afternoon after meeting at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. ‌Trump said it will be clear "in ‍a few weeks" whether negotiations to ‍end the war will succeed.

The peace talks did not ‍reach an agreement on territorial issues, so a Russia–Ukraine peace deal may remain deadlocked with no quick breakthrough, said Mingyu Gao, energy and chemical chief researcher at China Futures.

The reason prices are rising also includes ​that geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as Russia and Ukraine continued striking each other's energy infrastructure over the weekend, said Yang ⁠An, a China-based analyst at Haitong Futures.

"The Middle East has also been unsettled recently, in Yemen and Iran saying the country is in a 'full-scale war' with the US, Europe, and Israel. This may be what's driving market concerns about potential supply disruptions," Yang added.

WTI is expected to trade within a $55-$60 range with an eye also on US enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and any fallout from the US military strike against ISIS targets in Nigeria, which produces about 1.5 million barrels ‌per day, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

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Business

IMF Says Syria Ended 2025 with a Small Budget Surplus

The International Monetary Fund logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
The International Monetary Fund logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
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IMF Says Syria Ended 2025 with a Small Budget Surplus

The International Monetary Fund logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
The International Monetary Fund logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo

The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday that the Syrian government ended 2025 with a small budget surplus and that its revenue projections were ambitious but feasible, as the agency's staff concluded a visit to Damascus.

 

"Syria’s economy continues to show signs of recovery, with activity increasing at an accelerating pace as consumer and investor sentiment continues to improve," the IMF said in its statement.

 

Business

Oil Hovers Near Seven-month Highs Ahead of US-Iran Talks

FILE PHOTO: Chevron-chartered Ionic Anax oil tanker sits anchored in Lake Maracaibo, near the Bajo Grande crude port operated by state oil company PDVSA, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, February 9, 2026. REUTERS/Marco Bello/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Chevron-chartered Ionic Anax oil tanker sits anchored in Lake Maracaibo, near the Bajo Grande crude port operated by state oil company PDVSA, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, February 9, 2026. REUTERS/Marco Bello/File Photo
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Oil Hovers Near Seven-month Highs Ahead of US-Iran Talks

FILE PHOTO: Chevron-chartered Ionic Anax oil tanker sits anchored in Lake Maracaibo, near the Bajo Grande crude port operated by state oil company PDVSA, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, February 9, 2026. REUTERS/Marco Bello/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Chevron-chartered Ionic Anax oil tanker sits anchored in Lake Maracaibo, near the Bajo Grande crude port operated by state oil company PDVSA, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, February 9, 2026. REUTERS/Marco Bello/File Photo

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, as investors weighed the threat of military conflict between the US and Iran that could disrupt supply and a big build in US crude inventories.

Brent futures were up 6 cents at $70.83 per barrel at 0957 GMT. WTI futures rose 4 cents to $65.67 per barrel.

Brent prices reached their highest since July 31 on Friday, while WTI hit its highest since August 4 on Monday, as the US positioned military ‌forces in ‌the Middle East to try to compel Iran to ‌negotiate ⁠an end to ⁠its nuclear and ballistic missile program.

An extended conflict could disrupt supplies from Iran, the third-biggest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and other countries in the key Middle East producing region.

Supporting oil prices, US President Donald Trump briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, saying he would ⁠not allow a country he described as the world's biggest ‌sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear ‌weapon.

"This uncertainty means the market will continue to price in a large risk premium ‌and remain sensitive to any fresh developments," ING commodities strategists said on ‌Wednesday.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are due to meet an Iranian delegation for a third round of talks on Thursday in Geneva.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday that a deal with the US was "within reach, but ‌only if diplomacy is given priority.”

"Trump has warned that without a deal, there will be 'very bad consequences'. Whether (Iran's) concessions ⁠will meet ⁠the US's 'zero enrichment' red line remains to be seen," Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst, said in a note.

Amid the heightened tensions, Iran has accelerated talks to purchase Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, according to Reuters sources, which could target the US naval forces that have assembled near the Iranian coast.

While geopolitical tensions have supported prices, the market is also contending with concerns of large inventory gains as global supply exceeds demand.

According to market sources, the American Petroleum Institute late on Tuesday reported a massive increase in US oil stockpiles of 11.43 million barrels in the week ended February 20.

Business

Iraq’s West Qurna 2 Oilfield Poised for Output Surge with Chevron, Minister Says 

This handout picture made available by the Iraqi prime minister's office shows Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (top C), Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani (top R), US Special Envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack (top L), Chevron's Director of Business Development Joe Koch (bottom L), Iraq's North Oil Company Director Amer Khalil (bottom C), and the Director of the Dhi Qar Oil Company Said Zghair Shallagha (bottom R) attending the signing of agreements between Chevron Corporation and the Dhi Qar and North Oil Companies at the government palace in Baghdad on February 23, 2026. (Handout / Iraqi Prime Minister’s Press Office / AFP)
This handout picture made available by the Iraqi prime minister's office shows Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (top C), Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani (top R), US Special Envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack (top L), Chevron's Director of Business Development Joe Koch (bottom L), Iraq's North Oil Company Director Amer Khalil (bottom C), and the Director of the Dhi Qar Oil Company Said Zghair Shallagha (bottom R) attending the signing of agreements between Chevron Corporation and the Dhi Qar and North Oil Companies at the government palace in Baghdad on February 23, 2026. (Handout / Iraqi Prime Minister’s Press Office / AFP)
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Iraq’s West Qurna 2 Oilfield Poised for Output Surge with Chevron, Minister Says 

This handout picture made available by the Iraqi prime minister's office shows Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (top C), Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani (top R), US Special Envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack (top L), Chevron's Director of Business Development Joe Koch (bottom L), Iraq's North Oil Company Director Amer Khalil (bottom C), and the Director of the Dhi Qar Oil Company Said Zghair Shallagha (bottom R) attending the signing of agreements between Chevron Corporation and the Dhi Qar and North Oil Companies at the government palace in Baghdad on February 23, 2026. (Handout / Iraqi Prime Minister’s Press Office / AFP)
This handout picture made available by the Iraqi prime minister's office shows Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (top C), Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani (top R), US Special Envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack (top L), Chevron's Director of Business Development Joe Koch (bottom L), Iraq's North Oil Company Director Amer Khalil (bottom C), and the Director of the Dhi Qar Oil Company Said Zghair Shallagha (bottom R) attending the signing of agreements between Chevron Corporation and the Dhi Qar and North Oil Companies at the government palace in Baghdad on February 23, 2026. (Handout / Iraqi Prime Minister’s Press Office / AFP)

Iraq could nearly double its output from West Qurna 2 oilfield to 800,000 barrels per day as Chevron enters exclusive talks to take over operations from Russia's Lukoil, Iraq's oil minister said on Wednesday.

Iraq has been seeking to increase its oil and gas production, with oil majors vying to expand their operations in Iraq, after they had previously scaled back due to years of political instability.

Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani told ‌Kurdish TV ‌channel Rudaw that output could rise to between 750,000 ‌and ⁠800,000 bpd after Chevron ⁠takes over the operations in the field. The US firm has secured one-year exclusive rights to negotiate taking over the project.

The deal would expand Chevron's footprint by giving it control of one of the world's largest oilfields, which accounts for nearly 10% of Iraq's production and about 0.5% of global supply.

Chevron had already agreed to develop several fields in the country as part of ⁠an international expansion.

The Chevron deal is the latest in ‌a string of agreements with global oil ‌majors such as Exxon, BP, and TotalEnergies, in which Baghdad offers more generous terms in ‌a bid to beef up production.

Iraq, the second-largest producer within the ‌OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, plans to raise oil production capacity to more than 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029.

It has frequently produced in excess of its agreed target with OPEC+.

The ‌deal could also bolster relations between Baghdad and Washington, which threatened to curb Iraq's access to oil revenues if ⁠Iranian-backed groups ⁠were included in the upcoming government.

The agreement with Chevron, however, aligns Iraq more closely with Western energy interests as a US major replaces a sanctioned Russian firm, Lukoil, within broader efforts to isolate Moscow over its war in Ukraine.

Lukoil declared force majeure in November at West Qurna 2 after it was hit with sanctions alongside Rosneft as part of US President Donald Trump's push to end the war in Ukraine.

Iraq stripped Lukoil of operatorship of the field in January and temporarily transferred the field to the state-run Basra Oil Company (BOC).

In January, Iraq's cabinet said an "amicable settlement" with Lukoil for the transfer was approved. A final deal requires approval from Iraq's cabinet and the US Office of Foreign Assets Control, Chevron has said.