Saudi Arabia enters 2026 amid an accelerating transformation driven by Vision 2030 targets, even as global economic growth slows to about 3.1% and global inflation eases to roughly 3.7%, according to IMF estimates.
With geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies heightening global uncertainty, the Kingdom is betting on robust domestic demand and a broader non-oil base to secure more sustainable growth and reduce exposure to oil-market volatility.
Finance Ministry projections point to real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2026, led by non-oil activities as the main engine of expansion. This momentum reflects the rapid development of promising sectors, from tourism and entertainment to industry, transport and logistics, which have lifted their contribution to output. In 2024, non-oil activities reached a record SAR 2.6 trillion ($693 billion), growing 6%.
Continued growth
Alongside growth, a structural shift is evident on two fronts. First, digital transformation is accelerating: electronic payments accounted for 79% of individual transactions in 2024, e-commerce sales surged 64.3% by end-August 2025, and point-of-sale sales rose 6.1%. Second, the private sector and investment are playing a larger role. The purchasing managers’ index stood at a robust 60.2 points in October 2025, signaling stronger demand, output and hiring.
On macro stability, the 2026 budget statement forecasts inflation at 2%, supported by “flexible and balanced” fiscal policies focused on spending efficiency, service quality and the continued rollout of priority megaprojects.
Net foreign direct investment inflows reached SAR 46.5 billion ($12.4 billion) in the first half of 2025, up 29.2%, underscoring sustained confidence in the business environment.
Expansion of promising activities
Economic indicators in 2025 extended the strong results of 2024. From the start of 2025 through the third quarter, real GDP grew 4.1% year on year, driven by a 4.7% expansion in non-oil activities.
Quarterly growth in non-oil sectors reached 4.9% in Q1 and 4.6% in Q2, with wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels up 6.6%; finance, insurance and business services up 5%; and construction up 3.8%. Preliminary estimates show non-oil growth of 4.5% in Q3.
Oil activities grew 3.9% over the same period, reflecting market developments linked to a gradual phase-out of an additional voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025.
Government activities expanded 1.9%, supported by faster execution of projects with lasting economic impact.
On the demand side, real private final consumption rose 3.5% in the first half of 2025, buoyed by localization programs and an improving labor market. Non-government fixed capital formation increased 4.6%, driven by a 5.2% rise in non-oil investment.
Labor market, tourism and trade
Labor market indicators improved further: overall unemployment fell to 3.2% in Q2 2025, while Saudi unemployment declined to 6.8%. Female participation reached 34.5%, and the number of Saudis employed in the private sector rose by 144,100 year on year to around 2.5 million.
Tourism played a pivotal role. Saudi Arabia ranked first globally in growth of international tourism receipts in Q1 2025 versus Q1 2019, and third in international arrivals, with a 102% increase, supporting the goal of welcoming 150 million visitors annually by 2030.
Average inflation from early 2025 through October hovered near 2%, with the full-year average expected around 2.3%. The goods trade balance posted a surplus of SAR 162 billion ($43.2 billion) through Q3 2025, aided by 17.7% growth in non-oil exports.
Imports rose 10.4%, largely intermediate and capital goods. The travel account recorded a surplus of SAR 32.2 billion in the first half.
Finance, markets and fiscal policy
Banking assets exceeded SAR 4.9 trillion by September 2025, with credit above SAR 3.2 trillion. Corporate lending climbed 19%, non-performing loans fell below 1.2%, and capital adequacy exceeded 19.6%. Equity markets saw 14 listings by end-September, rising institutional participation, and increased foreign ownership.
Preliminary estimates put the 2025 budget deficit at SAR 245 billion (5.3% of GDP), reflecting a flexible fiscal stance supporting transformation. Public debt stood near SAR 1.47 trillion by Q3, with reserves maintained at about SAR 390 billion.
