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Saudi Economy Defies Forecasts, Posts Fastest Growth in Three Years

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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Saudi Economy Defies Forecasts, Posts Fastest Growth in Three Years

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia closed 2025 with economic performance that exceeded expectations, recording an annual growth of 4.5 percent. The result not only surpassed the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast of 4.3 percent, but also marked the Kingdom’s highest growth rate in three years, compared with 2.7 percent in 2024 and 0.5 percent in 2023.

The figures highlight strong economic resilience and align with the strategic direction outlined by the Ministry of Finance in its 2026 budget statement, which stressed the importance of sustaining growth and broadening its drivers in line with Saudi Vision 2030.

Landmark year

The year 2025 proved to be pivotal in Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation, with annual data showing a clear balance among sectoral contributions. Oil activities recorded the strongest annual growth at 5.6 percent, contributing around 1.4 percentage points to gross domestic product.

Non-oil activities, however, continued to consolidate their role as the main engine of growth, expanding by 4.9 percent and contributing about 2.7 percentage points. Government activities maintained moderate growth of 0.9 percent, according to preliminary estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics.

The Ministry of Finance had projected real GDP growth of 4.6 percent for 2025, driven primarily by non-oil activities, which have increasingly become the backbone of economic activity.

Noticeable acceleration

On a quarterly basis, the fourth quarter of 2025 saw a marked acceleration, with GDP growing by 4.9 percent year on year. Oil activities surged by 10.4 percent, contributing 2.5 percentage points to growth, while non-oil activities expanded by 4.1 percent, adding 2.3 points, reflecting strong integration between the two sectors.

Seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth reached 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the third.

Oil activities led with 1.4 percent growth, followed by non-oil activities at 1.3 percent, while government activities edged down by 0.2 percent.

Structural transformation

Financial and economic adviser Dr. Hussein Al-Attas told Asharq Al-Awsat that real GDP growth of 4.5 percent in 2025 reflects the success of economic and fiscal policies in achieving genuine diversification, rather than a cyclical improvement linked solely to oil prices.

He noted that the non-oil sector now accounts for about 55–56 percent of real GDP, growing close to 5 percent in 2025, driven by manufacturing, trade, transport and logistics, tourism, and services. These indicators, he said, point to a real structural shift aligned with Vision 2030, enhancing resilience against oil price volatility.

Sustainable outlook

Al-Attas said sustained growth remains achievable despite oil price fluctuations. While oil will remain influential, the expanding non-oil base has reduced sensitivity to oil cycles, supported by fiscal reforms, privatization, stronger private-sector participation, and foreign investment.

Looking ahead, he expects growth of 4.3–4.6 percent in 2026, with balanced contributions from oil and non-oil sectors.

Global banks, including Standard Chartered, forecast growth near 4.5 percent, underscoring confidence in the sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s economic trajectory.

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Business

US Debt Hits $40 Trillion as Higher Yields Open New Opportunities for Gulf Investors

An electronic display in Washington, DC, shows the US national debt on Aug. 19, as federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. (AFP via Getty Images)
An electronic display in Washington, DC, shows the US national debt on Aug. 19, as federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. (AFP via Getty Images)
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US Debt Hits $40 Trillion as Higher Yields Open New Opportunities for Gulf Investors

An electronic display in Washington, DC, shows the US national debt on Aug. 19, as federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. (AFP via Getty Images)
An electronic display in Washington, DC, shows the US national debt on Aug. 19, as federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. (AFP via Getty Images)

As US debt surpasses $40 trillion, Gulf investors are looking beyond the record figure to the broader implications of Treasury yields for capital flows, financing costs and investment strategies.

US assets and the dollar remain central to Gulf portfolios because of the depth of American markets and Gulf currencies’ links to the dollar. At the same time, higher yields are creating opportunities for Gulf sovereign wealth funds to rebalance portfolios and generate stronger returns on new investments.

Economists say the Gulf’s strong financial positions give the region considerable flexibility in navigating shifts in global interest rates. Higher fixed-income yields are also encouraging more diversified strategies spanning bonds, private credit, infrastructure and global equities, alongside growth sectors, such as technology, artificial intelligence and new energy.

Dollar remains central

Abdullah Almeer, assistant professor of economics at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM), said US debt reaching $40 trillion does not pose an “immediate risk” to Gulf dollar-denominated investments, although it increases longer-term structural risks monitored by sovereign wealth funds and central banks.

Almeer told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia holds about $142 billion in US Treasury securities, while the dollar accounts for roughly 57% of global central bank reserves, underscoring its continued central role in the international financial system.

The doubling of US debt from about $20 trillion in 2016 to more than $40 trillion today warrants closer scrutiny of fiscal developments, but does not, for the foreseeable future, diminish the attractiveness of US markets or the dollar’s importance to Gulf economies, he argued.

US dollar bills are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. (Reuters)

Higher yields, new opportunities

Persistently high US bond yields could reduce the market value of existing securities and result in valuation losses for some Gulf portfolios.

Almeer does not, however, expect the US economy to default, stressing that American markets retain high levels of liquidity, depth and institutional stability. A large-scale Gulf exit from US assets is therefore unlikely in the foreseeable future.

The main transmission channel to Gulf economies is interest rates. Financing government debt exceeding $40 trillion requires massive Treasury issuance, potentially pushing yields higher, particularly if inflationary pressures persist or oil prices rise.

Saudi Arabia’s riyal peg of SAR 3.75 to the dollar also means its monetary policy is closely tied to US interest rates. A widening rate differential between the two countries could put pressure on the exchange rate and capital flows.

Almeer estimated Gulf financial reserves at about $874 billion, while sovereign wealth fund assets are approaching $5 trillion, giving the region substantial capacity to finance projects and continue attracting investment.

Broader diversification

Rising US debt could encourage Gulf states to further diversify investments toward emerging economies such as India, China and Türkiye, as well as real assets, global infrastructure and fast-growing Asian markets, he added.

Technology, AI and clean energy could also attract a larger share of investment, in line with economic and investment shifts taking place across the region and globally.

Debt figure is not the whole story

Almeer stressed that the $40 trillion threshold does not in itself represent a decisive turning point for the global financial system. Markets focus less on the absolute size of debt than on a country’s ability to finance and service it and maintain investor confidence.

The US still has the world’s largest economy and financial market, while the dollar remains the most widely used currency in international trade and reserves, giving Washington flexibility unavailable to most other economies, he noted.

What makes the figure significant is the accelerating pace of government borrowing and the rising cost of servicing that debt, particularly with interest rates remaining relatively high, he explained.

Economic history also suggests that absolute debt levels are not necessarily the decisive factor in determining crisis risk. Japan, for example, has managed debt exceeding 200% of GDP for extended periods without suffering a sovereign debt crisis, Almeer went on to say.

A Saudi money changer displays Saudi Riyal banknotes at a currency exchange shop in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia July 27, 2017. (Reuters)

Pace of debt growth matters

Mohammed Al-Farraj, Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the $40 trillion figure should be assessed alongside the pace of debt growth, servicing costs, the annual deficit and markets’ capacity to absorb US Treasury issuance.

He explained that the trajectory does not necessarily signal an imminent threat to Washington’s ability to meet its obligations, but it is reshaping the global investment environment by raising financing costs and altering returns across asset classes.

Higher Treasury yields can reduce the market value of existing bonds while offering better returns on new issues, creating opportunities for investors to rebuild fixed-income portfolios at more attractive levels, he added.

Al-Farraj said the current environment could encourage Gulf sovereign wealth funds to strike a better balance between fixed-income instruments and higher-growth assets, with opportunities in gold, global equities, private credit and infrastructure, alongside more flexible management of US Treasury maturities.

That does not mean abandoning the dollar, but rather adopting more diversified portfolio management while keeping dollar assets at the core of Gulf investment strategies, he remarked.

The main effect of record US debt on the Gulf may therefore be to accelerate the evolution of investment strategies rather than change their direction. The dollar remains pivotal, even as opportunities for Gulf capital expand across bonds, US markets, infrastructure, technology and fast-growing Asian economies.

Business

Libya’s Dbeibah Halts Steel Firm's Production Due to Power Shortages

Prime Minister of Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah (Dbeibah's office)
Prime Minister of Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah (Dbeibah's office)
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Libya’s Dbeibah Halts Steel Firm's Production Due to Power Shortages

Prime Minister of Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah (Dbeibah's office)
Prime Minister of Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah (Dbeibah's office)

Prime Minister of Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah ordered the country's biggest steel firm, state-owned Lisco, to halt production due to power shortages, the state-owned Alwataniya TV channel reported on Thursday.

The broadcaster said the PM ordered Libyan Iron and ⁠Steel Company (Lisco)in the coastal city of Misrata to connect its power plant to the national ⁠grid.

Lisco is one of the only companies outside the energy sector still exporting products from the country.

The plant has a design capacity of 1.7 million ⁠metric ⁠tons of liquid steel per year.

Libya has had a power crisis as temperatures soar with outages of up to 10 hours a day in main cities, sparking protests.

Business

Swiss and Chinese Reach Agreement on Updated Free Trade Deal

FILE PHOTO: A China yuan banknote featuring late Chinese chairman Mao Zedong and a computer keyboard are seen reflected on an image of Chinese flag in this illustration picture taken November 1, 2019. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A China yuan banknote featuring late Chinese chairman Mao Zedong and a computer keyboard are seen reflected on an image of Chinese flag in this illustration picture taken November 1, 2019. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
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Swiss and Chinese Reach Agreement on Updated Free Trade Deal

FILE PHOTO: A China yuan banknote featuring late Chinese chairman Mao Zedong and a computer keyboard are seen reflected on an image of Chinese flag in this illustration picture taken November 1, 2019. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A China yuan banknote featuring late Chinese chairman Mao Zedong and a computer keyboard are seen reflected on an image of Chinese flag in this illustration picture taken November 1, 2019. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

Switzerland and China have completed negotiations on an updated free trade deal which will increase Swiss access to its third biggest trading partner, Swiss officials said on Thursday.

Swiss president Guy Parmelin and China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao announced the conclusion of the talks after a meeting in Bern.

Under the agreement, 99.8% of Swiss exports can enter the Chinese market duty free, upgrading an existing deal where the terms applied to only around half of Swiss shipments, Reuters reported.

Almost all Chinese exports to Switzerland are duty free under the existing 2014 free trade agreement between the two countries, Beijing's first such deal with an economy in continental Europe.

Other areas covered in the new agreement include rules of origin and trade facilitation, trade in services, digital trade, competition, and economic and technical cooperation.

China is Switzerland's third biggest trade partner after Germany and the United States, with bilateral trade amounting to 46 billion Swiss francs ($57.6 billion) so far in 2026.

Trade between the two countries has expanded from 31.7 billion francs in 2015 to 51.2 billion francs last year, according to figures from the Swiss customs office, with China a big market for Swiss chemicals, pharmaceuticals, precision instruments and watches.

Once the legal review has been completed, a signing of the deal is expected later this year, before the domestic approval processes in each country take place.