Stocks Extend Gains and Oil Dips as US, Israel, Iran Continue Strikes

 An oil tanker sits at Viva Energy Australia’s Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
An oil tanker sits at Viva Energy Australia’s Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
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Stocks Extend Gains and Oil Dips as US, Israel, Iran Continue Strikes

 An oil tanker sits at Viva Energy Australia’s Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
An oil tanker sits at Viva Energy Australia’s Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)

Oil prices sank Wednesday after Iraq said it had resumed exports through Türkiye, avoiding the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz, while equities rose following another tech-led advance on Wall Street.

The drop in crude, which saw WTI sink more than four percent, came even as the United States hit Iranian missile sites near the key Strait of Hormuz and Tehran struck crude-producing Gulf neighbors.

While the war in the Middle East shows no sign of ending and oil has stuck around $100 a barrel -- threatening to fuel a fresh inflation spike -- equity traders have shifted back into the market after the steep losses suffered at the outset of the conflict.

However, analysts warned the positive mood could fade if the crisis drags on and energy costs spiral with Hormuz -- through which a fifth of global oil and gas flow -- effectively closed by Iran as an economic weapon.

That comes with central banks weighing the need for lower interest rates to support the economy and the prospect of rising prices, which would need higher borrowing costs.

In a bid to ease traffic through the crucial Strait, US forces dropped several 5,000-pound (2,250 kg) bombs on "hardened Iranian missile sites" near the coast, Central Command said.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday fumed that allies, which have largely distanced themselves from his war, were not lining up to help escort tankers through the waterway.

The attacks came as Israel announced it had killed security chief Ali Larijani, a key force leading Iran since the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the first strikes of the war.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia intercepted six drones and Kuwait's air defenses responded to a rocket and drone attack, two people were killed by missiles near Tel Aviv, and Qatar said it intercepted a missile attack as blasts were heard in Doha.

Israel also hit a central Beirut neighborhood as it looks to take out the Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Rystad Energy estimated just 12.5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern oil remains online, down from the 21 million per day pre-war base.

"But the 12.5 million bpd figure is not secure," Rystad said. "If the (Hormuz) situation persists, the drop in departures could start feeding through into additional export losses in the weeks ahead, as producers face growing difficulty moving crude out of the Gulf."

Still, oil prices fell as Iraq said it had resumed limited oil exports through Türkiye.

State-owned North Oil Company said it "has begun operating the Sarlo pumping station to resume pumping and exporting Kirkuk oil to the port of Ceyhan with an initial capacity of 250,000 barrels per day".

West Texas Intermediate lost more than four percent to strike just below $92, while Brent shed almost three percent to just above $100.

Stocks continued to defy gravity following gains on Wall Street that were helped by tech giants including Apple and Amazon.

Seoul jumped more than five percent thanks to a surge in chip giants Samsung and SK hynix. The Kospi, however, is still more than six percent down from the record highs touched before the war broke out.

Tokyo was up 2.9 percent, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taipei, Sydney, Singapore, Mumbai, Bangkok and Wellington also rallied.

"Asia is picking up the baton with a cautiously constructive tone... all of it leaning on the signal from Wall Street where the S&P and Nasdaq have now strung together a second day of gains, suggesting the market is actively choosing to look through the geopolitical noise," wrote SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

However, Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com warned traders might rethink their positions the longer the conflict rumbles on.

"If the war continues then the US and Israel will have to continue alone, because other NATO members have decided against joining the conflict," he wrote.

"This may work in favor of Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed for longer."

Focus is also on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting that concludes later Wednesday.

The bank is expected to keep borrowing costs on hold but it will release its "dot plot" forecast for rates in the coming months, amid speculation it could be forced to hike again.



UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."


Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.


Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.