Dollar Steady as Traders Weigh Escalating Iran War, Ceasefire Hopeshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5259280-dollar-steady-traders-weigh-escalating-iran-war-ceasefire-hopes
Dollar Steady as Traders Weigh Escalating Iran War, Ceasefire Hopes
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
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Dollar Steady as Traders Weigh Escalating Iran War, Ceasefire Hopes
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
The dollar was steady on Monday, while the yen flirted with the crucial 160 per dollar level, as nervous investors took stock of the escalating Iran war, with all eyes on the latest deadline from US President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post, Trump threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of 8 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time (0000 GMT).
With most of Asia and Europe closed for holiday on Monday, liquidity is likely to be thin, with investor focus on the possibility of a ceasefire after a media report suggested a last-ditch push from negotiators was underway.
"Trump's latest deadline itself is bearish not because investors think war is guaranteed tomorrow if Iran does not open the strait, but because every new ultimatum makes the disruption look longer, stickier and more macro-negative," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.
The euro was at $1.1523, while sterling last fetched $1.3211. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, was slightly lower at 100.12.
The Australian dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.69045, wobbling near the two-month low that it hit last week.
In the kind of mixed messaging that has baffled supporters, foes and financial markets alike, Trump told Fox News on Sunday that Iran was negotiating, with a deal possible by Monday.
Axios reported the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
Global markets have been rattled since the US-Israel war on Iran broke out at the end of February, with Tehran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that is a thoroughfare through which about a fifth of the world's total oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
"If the strait is reopened fully around that time (Trump's Tuesday deadline), oil will fall sharply and risk will rally hard," said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities.
"However, if the US escalates, expect global markets to reprice sharply. It's wait-and-watch in what's turning out to be a binary event."
The closure has caused oil prices to surge well above $100 per barrel, stoking fears of high inflation and upending rates outlooks across the world. Worries about the hit to economic growth have also weighed as stagflation risks swirl.
Traders are now no longer pricing a move from the Federal Reserve well into the second half of 2027, compared with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 at the start of the year.
Data last week suggested US labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk.
YEN WATCH
The Japanese yen was flat at 159.55 per US dollar, not far from the 21-month low that it hit last week as traders watch for indications of Tokyo intervening in the wake of strong warnings from officials in the past few days.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Friday put currency traders on notice, saying the government stands ready to act against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets as volatility has risen "significantly."
Still, many doubt the firepower of any intervention at a time when geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is fueling relentless demand for the safe-haven dollar. The yen is down 1.5% since the war started, stuck near the 160 level.
Speculators have also been adding to their short yen positioning, with the latest weekly data showing a short position worth $5.7 billion, the highest since July 2024, when Japan last intervened in the FX markets.
Oil Prices Fall $2 on Iran-Oman Talks to Reopen Strait of Hormuzhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5311181-oil-prices-fall-2-iran-oman-talks-reopen-strait-hormuz
A worker rests next to an oil pump on a sunny day in Baku, Azerbaijan, June 16 , 2015. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Fall $2 on Iran-Oman Talks to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
A worker rests next to an oil pump on a sunny day in Baku, Azerbaijan, June 16 , 2015. (Reuters)
Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday as talks between Iran and Oman revived hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and remove shipping constraints affecting supply in the key Middle East region.
Brent crude futures fell $2.30, or 2.6%, to $86.28 a barrel by 0447 GMT, earlier dropping to their lowest since August 13. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.08, or 2.53%, at $80.29, earlier sinking to their lowest since August 10.
Both benchmarks fell more than 3% on Tuesday.
"The market continues to react to developments surrounding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and hopes for progress in talks between Iran and Oman have triggered selling," said Mitsuru Muraishi, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
"That said, uncertainty over the outlook has prompted bargain buying, limiting further losses, and prices are likely to remain range-bound for the time being," he added.
Iran said it had restarted talks with Oman to manage the strait as it faces heightened economic pressure from US President Donald Trump.
Iran and Oman have been in on-and-off talks for weeks about controlling traffic through the waterway, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the US-Israeli war against Iran began in February.
The two countries said on Tuesday that they discussed "a joint temporary navigational corridor" through the strait and agreed to clear it of mines.
Amid the talks, ship traffic through Hormuz remains lower. Only five commodity vessels — two liquefied petroleum gas tankers and a bitumen tanker exiting and two empty product tankers — transited the waterway on Tuesday, preliminary data from shiptracker Kpler showed, down from the 10-day average of 15 and well below pre-war levels.
Talks on an overall end to the conflict also continue. Pakistan and Iran made "significant progress" in talks that focused on the US-Israeli war on Iran and a path to peace, Pakistan's interior minister said on Tuesday, at the end of a visit to Tehran.
On Monday, Washington expanded sanctions aimed at cutting off Iran's economic lifeline, threatening to punish countries that continue to do business with Tehran, though it said it would not impose penalties immediately.
In the US, the American Petroleum Institute reported crude oil inventories rose by about 4.2 million barrels in the week ended August 21, market sources said.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimated crude oil stockpiles would rise by about 600,000 barrels on average. Official data from the EIA, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, are due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.
Canada Unveils Counter Tariffs of 15% to 50% on US Goodshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5311018-canada-unveils-counter-tariffs-15-50-us-goods
Canada Unveils Counter Tariffs of 15% to 50% on US Goods
Canadian flag is pictured across the Detroit River in Windsor, Ontario, Canada, 25 August 2026. EPA/ARI SAPERSTEIN
Canada on Tuesday announced counter-tariffs on US goods ranging between 15 percent and 50 percent, intensifying the trade war between the historically close allies.
Ottawa's retaliation takes effect September 8, a timeframe earlier outlined by Prime Minister Mark Carney after US President Donald Trump's 50-percent duties on Canadian products came into place Saturday.
In detailing Ottawa's response, officials said Tuesday that its duties will match US levels. These impact industries like steel, dairy and electronics.
Canada's government also announced a $5.4 billion (CA$7.5 billion) aid package for impacted firms and workers.
"This is an unprecedented challenge imposed on Canada. But Canada will meet the moment," AFP quoted Canada's Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne as saying.
"I think what Canadians can see this morning is that we stand united. We stand united in our response," he added.
The steep US tariffs hit about $20 billion in Canadian goods -- about 5.5 percent of its exports to the United States -- after trade negotiations collapsed at the eleventh hour.
Under Canada's planned response, US steel and aluminum products previously subject to a 25-percent duty will soon face 50-percent tariffs.
Goods facing 25-percent tariffs will include appliances, dairy products like cheese, as well as certain steel and aluminum derivative products.
A small category will see a 15-percent duty, including electric equipment and tools.
Overall, these form about 7.3 percent of Canada's imports from the United states.
But analysts warn of tit-for-tat escalation.
Already, Trump additionally pledged Monday to double tariffs on Canadian autos starting next year, up to 50 percent from the current 25 percent for non-US content.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford criticized Trump's threat on autos, saying he could "kiss my ass" and threatening an electricity export surcharge.
A freighter travels along the Detroit River in Detroit, Michigan, USA, 25 August 2026. EPA/ARI SAPERSTEIN
In an earlier phase of the dispute, Ontario imposed a temporary 25-percent surcharge on electricity exports to three US states.
Trump lashed out at Ford, warning of "far worse" consequences. He also referred to Carney as a "governor," re-upping his inflammatory push for Canada to become the 51st US state.
Highlighting the animosity, Trump said Tuesday he was considering renaming Lake Ontario as "Lake America," as he did last year with the Gulf of Mexico, which he said should now be called the "Gulf of America."
Trump's latest tariffs do not exempt products covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). They raise the US effective tariff rate on Canadian exports to 6.9 percent from 5.1 percent, Oxford Economics estimates.
Tariffs on plastics, electrical machinery, and wood and paper products contribute most to the increase.
"Manufacturers in Quebec, New Brunswick, and Ontario will be affected the most," Oxford Economics said.
Over the weekend, Carney said US negotiators sought restrictions on Canadian trade deals with other countries at the last minute.
US officials made unacceptable "threats" to the French language and "Quebec culture" too, he added, referring to eastern Canada's French-speaking province.
But Trump pushed back Tuesday, saying on Truth Social that he would "never interfere with Canadians speaking French!"
"This lie was made up by a weak and ineffective Prime Minister in an attempt to gain political support," Trump charged.
The United States is Canada's biggest trading partner, with Canadian exports to its neighbor representing 70 percent of its overall total.
Canada is the second biggest US trading partner in goods this year, behind Mexico.
Polling released Sunday by the Angus Reid Institute showed Canadian broadly support Carney's move to walk away from talks, but some fear economic repercussions.
The White House had alleged "discriminatory treatment" by Canada against US alcohol, automobile and dairy products in rolling out new tariffs.
Trump delayed their implementation, but both sides failed to reach an agreement after hours of talks.
Beyond tariffs, Washington and Ottawa also have to agree on revisions to the USMCA, which Trump declined to renew in its current form.
French Entrepreneur: Saudi Arabia is a Launchpad for Technology into Global Marketshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5310994-french-entrepreneur-saudi-arabia-launchpad-technology-global-markets
French Entrepreneur: Saudi Arabia is a Launchpad for Technology into Global Markets
The Biban Forum in Riyadh, specializing in startups (SPA)
French entrepreneur and investor Julie Barbier does not see Saudi Arabia merely as a promising market for technology companies, but as a global launchpad that enables the testing, development, and scaling of breakthrough technologies.
The founder and CEO of Merit believes that the Kingdom's combination of digital infrastructure, capital availability, execution speed, and broad customer base makes it an attractive environment for building technology products that can subsequently expand into regional and international markets.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Barbier said that the economic transformation driven by Vision 2030 has created a highly ambitious business environment that is quick to embrace new ideas, alongside the restructuring of major sectors including finance, tourism, transportation, trade, logistics, and government services.
She cited the experience of Merit, a global company specializing in engagement and incentive technologies, whose Saudi team achieves innovation efficiency levels 59 percent higher than the company's internal innovation benchmark and generates about eight innovation initiatives each week.
Barbier said Saudi Arabia has become one of the world's most attractive environments for launching, validating, and scaling new technologies, benefiting from high rates of digital adoption, a willingness among major institutions to collaborate with innovative solutions, abundant capital, and the simultaneous transformation of entire economic sectors.
She explained that these conditions provide entrepreneurs with access to real-world use cases and serious customers, allowing them to launch and test new products at scale before rapidly refining and adapting them for expansion into other markets.
In her view, the Kingdom's pace of transformation also encourages a greater willingness to challenge traditional methods, a critical factor when developing new solutions.
For Merit, which selected Riyadh as its regional headquarters, Barbier said the company's presence in Saudi Arabia gives it direct access to customers and partners while enabling it to develop and test products before introducing them internationally.
"That is why I see Saudi Arabia not simply as a technology market, but as a launchpad for companies with regional and global ambitions," she said.
French entrepreneur and investor Julie Barbier (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Vision 2030: From Ambition to Rapid Execution
Barbier said one of Vision 2030's most significant contributions has been providing the Kingdom with a clear direction and a high level of ambition shared by government institutions, businesses, investors, and entrepreneurs.
"In a transformation of this scale, it is natural for some goals to progress faster than others, but the direction is clear and the momentum is strong," she said.
She believes that the clarity of ambition across the business ecosystem directly influences how new ideas are received. Decisions are made more quickly, experimentation is encouraged, and companies become more willing to adopt new ways of working.
Barbier likened Vision 2030 to a wave pushing the entrepreneurial ecosystem forward. Entrepreneurs and companies operating in the Kingdom are not merely benefiting from this momentum, she said; they are also helping to create it and moving in the same direction.
Merit's experience reflects that transformation. Although the company operates through approximately eight offices and employs staff from 24 nationalities, its Saudi team performs 59 percent better on the company's internal innovation index and launches around eight innovation initiatives each week.
According to Barbier, these figures are a practical demonstration of Vision 2030's impact.
"It is not simply a government strategy," she said. "It creates an environment that encourages people to work harder, experiment more, move faster, and think on a larger scale."
She added that this momentum has become part of Merit's strategic advantage: "We benefit from it and contribute to strengthening it."
A Digital Environment that Shortens the Path from Idea to Execution
Discussing her experience as a French entrepreneur and investor leading a global technology company from Riyadh, Barbier said what distinguishes Saudi Arabia's business environment is the speed with which decisions move from ambition to implementation, something entrepreneurs notice in their daily operations.
She noted that a wide range of services have become digital, from government services, digital identity, and payments to banking and business management. Many procedures that once required paperwork, appointments, or multiple intermediaries can now be completed digitally with increasing ease.
Barbier believes this digital transformation is not simply changing service delivery but is also reshaping the business mindset itself by raising expectations regarding execution speed and customer experience, while a broad technology infrastructure continues to be built across the Kingdom.
In this context, she highlighted the role of Saudi companies in strengthening the ecosystem. She noted that HUMAIN is developing capabilities in data centers, cloud infrastructure, models, and applications, while the government-owned company Elm serves as an example of how deeply technology has become integrated into sectors such as government services, finance, logistics, and business services.
Regarding Merit's decision to establish its regional headquarters in Riyadh, Barbier said the Kingdom's importance to the company extends beyond market size to include the environment it offers for product development, testing, and expansion.
"That is why we chose Riyadh as our regional headquarters," she said, "while continuing to develop products and technologies from Saudi Arabia that target global markets."
French entrepreneur and investor Julie Barbier at the Biban Forum in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Future of Female Entrepreneurship in Saudi Arabia
Asked about the future of female entrepreneurship in the Kingdom, Barbier said: "I witnessed tremendous passion for entrepreneurship during my recent participation in the Saudi Unicorns Forum in Abha, where I met several female founders. What stood out was not only their ability to build companies, but also their level of ambition, commitment, and desire to expand and grow."
She noted that Saudi women are already active as founders, chief executives, investors, and decision-makers. What further strengthens their role, she said, is the growing entrepreneurial support ecosystem, which includes business leaders, investors, and experienced mentors who open doors, share expertise, and support the next generation of female entrepreneurs.
"I would also like to mention Princess Reema bint Bandar, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques' Ambassador to the United States, whose leadership and support have helped create more opportunities and support for the next generation of Saudi female entrepreneurs," she said.
Barbier added that Merit has witnessed similar progress internally across areas including product management, design, and marketing, where women directly influence the products the company develops, the decisions it makes, and the way it grows.
"Therefore, I do not believe the question today is whether Saudi women participate in entrepreneurship," she added. "They are already present and playing an active role. The next step is enabling more founders to scale by expanding access to capital, mentorship, and international networks, helping them build companies capable of growing regionally and globally."
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