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World Bank Slashes 2026 Middle East Growth Forecast, Saudi Arabia Absorbs Shock

A cargo ship in the Arabian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
A cargo ship in the Arabian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
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World Bank Slashes 2026 Middle East Growth Forecast, Saudi Arabia Absorbs Shock

A cargo ship in the Arabian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
A cargo ship in the Arabian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)

The World Bank has slashed its 2026 growth forecast for Middle East economies, saying overall GDP growth in ⁠the region is expected to slow from an estimated 3.6% in January to 1.8% for 2026.

The closure of the strategic ⁠Strait of Hormuz, and destruction ⁠of energy and public infrastructure, had disrupted markets, increased financial volatility, and weakened the 2026 growth outlook, the World Bank Group said in its Economic Update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The report was published as US President Donald Trump late on Tuesday announced a two-week ceasefire in the conflict with Iran after he had threatened to wipe out “a whole civilization.”

According to the World Bank, the conflict comes as an additional shock to a region already suffering from low productivity growth, limited private sector dynamism and persistent labor market challenges – underscoring the urgent need to strengthen governance and macroeconomic fundamentals and take action to boost long-term job creation and resilience.

The April 2026 World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook forecasts that the region’s aggregate (excluding the Iran) GDP growth will decelerate to 1.8 percent in 2026, down from 4.0 percent estimated for 2025. The 2026 forecast has been downgraded by 2.4 percentage points since the January projections, reflecting the adverse effects of the ongoing conflict.

GCC states

Growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iraq, among the most heavily affected by the impact of the conflict, is expected to slow to 1.3% for 2026, down 3.1 percentage points from its January projection, and driven mainly by lower projected hydrocarbon revenues due to disruptions caused ⁠by the ⁠conflict.

Saudi Arabia: Forecast was downgraded by 1.2 percentage points since January. Growth is now expected to slow from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, noting that Saudi Arabia’s outlook remains the strongest among Gulf economies.

United Arab Emirates: Growth forecast for the UAE has fallen by 2.7 percentage points since January. Growth is now expected to slow from 5% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026.

Qatar: Notably, growth forecast for the Qatari economy has seen a sharp decline of 11.0 percentage points since January. The economy is now expected to record a contraction of 5.7%, down from an estimated growth of 5.3%, due to severe obstruction to liquefied gas supplies. Qatar is a key player in the global energy market, with a global market share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies ranging between 20% and 21%.

Kuwait: Likewise, Kuwait’s economy is expected to register a significant contraction of 6.4%, compared to growth of 2.6% expected in January. Kuwait relies entirely (100%) on the Strait of Hormuz to export its crude oil and derivatives. Consequently, closing the strait would mean a complete shutdown of the country’s financial lifeline, immediately halting revenue inflows to the state budget.

Bahrain: Growth forecast for Bahrain’s economy has declined by 1.8 percentage points since January. Growth is now expected to slow from 3.1% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2026.

Sultanate of Oman: Growth forecast for Oman’s economy has decreased by 1.2 percentage points since January. Growth is now expected to slow from 3.6% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026.
Iraq

The greatest shock in the World Bank report lies in the free fall of the Iraqi economy, as its growth forecast dropped from 6.5 percent to a staggering contraction of 8.6 percent.

This alarming figure reflects the situation faced by Iraq following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq — the second-largest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) — experienced the largest drop in production, estimated at nearly 70 percent, dropping to about 800,000 barrels per day from 4.3 million barrels prior to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Egypt

Egypt’s situation in the World Bank report differs from that of some countries in the region that saw sharp contractions; the bank maintained its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth at 4.3%.

The World Bank said that “risks are tilted to the downside.”

It added that “in the event of a prolonged conflict, the current impacts on the region will be compounded–through elevated energy and food prices, declining trade, tourism and remittances, increased fiscal pressures, and displacement.”

Peace is a precondition for the region’s durable development

“The current crisis is a stark reminder of the work ahead for the region: not only to weather shocks, but to rebuild more resilient economies with stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, innovate and improve governance, invest in infrastructure, and boost employment-creating sectors,” Ousmane Dione, the World Bank's Vice President for the region said in a statement.

"Peace and stability are preconditions for the region’s durable development. With peace and the right action, countries can build the institutions, capabilities and competitive sectors that create opportunities for people,” he added.

As for Roberta Gatti, World Bank Group Chief Economist for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, she said: "As countries face the heavy toll of the present conflict, it is important to also not lose sight of the work needed for long-lasting peace and prosperity.”

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Business

Riyadh Air Adds Two Flights to London Heathrow, Increases Service to Nine Weekly

Riyadh Air’s first two Dreamliners at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, June 5, 2026. (SPA)
Riyadh Air’s first two Dreamliners at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, June 5, 2026. (SPA)
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Riyadh Air Adds Two Flights to London Heathrow, Increases Service to Nine Weekly

Riyadh Air’s first two Dreamliners at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, June 5, 2026. (SPA)
Riyadh Air’s first two Dreamliners at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, June 5, 2026. (SPA)

Riyadh Air, Saudi Arabia’s national carrier, announced on Thursday that it will operate two additional flights between Riyadh and London Heathrow, expanding its service between the two cities to nine times weekly from the current daily service.

Following its successful launch to London Heathrow on June 10, the airline now flies eight aircraft to 14 destinations across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia and aims to be on sale to almost 30 destinations by the end of 2026.

Riyadh Air CEO Tony Douglas said: “Since launching our London service four months ago, we have continued to build our presence in the UK by launching flights to Manchester and now increasing two additional roundtrip flights to Heathrow.”

“The additional flights help us meet the growing demand on this important route while giving guests more choice and flexibility while strengthening the connection between Riyadh and London,” he added.

The additional return services are planned for Monday and Wednesday, with a daytime flight from Riyadh to London followed by an overnight departure to Riyadh and are scheduled to begin on November 2.

The expanded schedule will give guests more options for travel between the two cities, including business trips, short breaks and extended weekends.

Business

Italian Official to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Will Work with Saudi Arabia to Enter Third Markets

Signing of a cooperation agreement between the Federation of Saudi Chambers and Italy's national promotional and development institution (X)
Signing of a cooperation agreement between the Federation of Saudi Chambers and Italy's national promotional and development institution (X)
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Italian Official to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Will Work with Saudi Arabia to Enter Third Markets

Signing of a cooperation agreement between the Federation of Saudi Chambers and Italy's national promotional and development institution (X)
Signing of a cooperation agreement between the Federation of Saudi Chambers and Italy's national promotional and development institution (X)

Riyadh and Rome are moving their economic relations toward a more practical track, with plans for joint cooperation in third markets, alongside expanding channels of cooperation between Saudi and Italian companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises.

The move comes as Italy's national promotional institution, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), signed two agreements in Riyadh, one with Saudi Arabia's National Development Fund and another with the Federation of Saudi Chambers, aimed at expanding financing and investment cooperation and facilitating companies' access to opportunities in both countries.

A senior Italian official told Asharq Al-Awsat that cooperation between Riyadh and Rome is not limited to the Saudi and Italian markets, but also extends to working together in "third markets." He noted that Saudi Arabia's economic diversification offers broad opportunities for Italian companies, given Italy's diverse industrial base and expertise across multiple sectors.

On Wednesday, the Federation of Saudi Chambers and CDP signed an agreement in Riyadh aimed at activating the Saudi-Italian strategic partnership launched in AlUla, opening financing channels for joint projects, integrating small and medium-sized enterprises into cooperation between the two countries, and strengthening the federation's role as the institutional representative of the Saudi private sector in cooperation with its Italian counterpart.

The agreement provides a practical framework for strengthening partnerships between the business sectors of the two countries by supporting a business-matching platform that connects Saudi companies with their Italian counterparts, introducing projects and investment opportunities, and establishing communication channels to help Italian companies explore the Saudi market and facilitate their entry.

CDP is part of the Saudi-Italian strategic partnership launched in AlUla, while the agreement enables the Federation of Saudi Chambers and its Saudi-Italian Business Council to play a greater role in advancing private-sector cooperation between the two countries and turning partnership opportunities into joint projects and business ventures.

Joint Strategic Cooperation

Dario Scannapieco, President of CDP (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti), told Asharq Al-Awsat that cooperation between Italy and Saudi Arabia "is not limited to bringing the two countries closer together or working within the Saudi market, but also includes cooperation in other countries and third markets."

He explained that the Italian delegation's visit to Riyadh has several objectives, foremost among them meeting with investors and strengthening cooperation with Saudi institutions. He said the meeting with the National Development Fund was "very fruitful" and had paved the way for excellent cooperation with it in many fields.

He added that the agreement signed with the Federation of Saudi Chambers represents "a further step" toward moving from institutional cooperation to more operational cooperation, with the aim of helping Italian SMEs that want to explore the possibility of entering Saudi Arabia, providing them with direct contacts and facilitating their access to the market.

"We are launching and revamping a platform that will put Italian SMEs in contact with Saudi SMEs. So business opportunities may develop from this new opportunity. This is another signal that Italy and Saudi Arabia must cooperate more," Scannapieco said.

He noted that there are many opportunities for cooperation between Italy and Saudi Arabia through Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Italy's national promotional institution, adding that CDP is working to foster this cooperation and expand its scope.

Regarding the agreement's details, Scannapieco said its first objective is to support and expand the business-matching platform, which will connect Saudi SMEs with Italian SMEs and help them identify potential partners.

"The second is the idea to work on selected projects here in Saudi Arabia and allow Italian companies to know about these projects. The Expo is one of this kind where clearly Italian projects may be involved," he said.

"The third is to create a contact point between these two organizations, so to iron out all the doubts and to clearly push developing this relationship." He explained that when an Italian company wants to enter the Saudi market, it needs support in obtaining authorizations and handling other requirements.

"So it's very concrete, goes in the direction to make easier the access to Saudi Arabia for Italian companies," he said.

On the extent to which the strategic relationship between the two countries can help address challenges that may arise in the region, Scannapieco said Italy has "a very diversified industrial base" and produces a wide range of products.

"We are the third most diversified industry after China and the United States," he said.

This diversity, he added, enables Italian companies to provide specialized technical expertise and become useful partners in efforts to diversify the Saudi economy. "We could be extremely valuable partners."

He said the next phase requires bringing the Italian business sector's presence in Saudi Arabia to a broader level. Many large companies are already present in the Kingdom, he noted, but "now is the time to also give the opportunity to SMEs to internationalize in this region," thereby expanding the base of economic cooperation between the two countries.

Saudi-Italian Partnership Moves Toward Implementation

Kamel Al-Munajjed, Chairman of the Saudi-Italian Business Council, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the agreement is a direct extension of the meeting held in AlUla in January 2025 between Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which elevated relations between the two countries to the level of a strategic partnership and made economic relations one of its main pillars.

He added that the agreement signed Wednesday between CDP and the Federation of Saudi Chambers represents a practical step toward strengthening cooperation between the business sectors of the two countries and provides a new channel for turning existing relations into commercial and investment partnerships and projects.

Al-Munajjed said the agreement strengthens the partnerships built by the Saudi-Italian Business Council with Confindustria and CNA through delegations, forums, and direct business meetings. He noted that CDP's capabilities and the scope of the Federation of Saudi Chambers' work would help turn these links into more sustained business opportunities.

He said the agreement offers two main advantages. The first is CDP's business-matching platform, which allows Saudi and Italian companies to enter information about their capabilities and business interests and then identify potential partners whose needs match those capabilities.

The platform can shorten the path for companies seeking suitable partners. A Saudi industrial company looking for Italian technology, for example, can identify companies capable of meeting its needs, while an Italian company seeking to enter the Saudi market can search for a local partner. The federation and the business council will work to encourage companies to use the platform and follow up on cooperation opportunities that emerge through it.

The second advantage, Al-Munajjed said, is strengthening cooperation with SIMEST, a subsidiary of the CDP Group. Its presence in Riyadh and support for the international expansion of Italian companies could help more companies, particularly SMEs, establish and expand their businesses in Saudi Arabia.

He added that the joint channel provided by the agreement will enable Saudi companies seeking to trade, invest, or operate in Italy to reach suitable Italian partners and identify new opportunities. He called on the Saudi business community to take advantage of the partnership and work to turn it into sustainable projects and shared growth opportunities.

Al-Munajjed said Italian companies have specialized expertise in engineering, technology, and manufacturing, while Saudi companies provide knowledge of the local market and the ability to expand. Opportunities for cooperation extend to trade, infrastructure, telecommunications, industry, energy, tourism, and other sectors.

He added that Expo 2030 Riyadh represents an important opportunity to bring these capabilities together and open new areas for companies in both countries. He stressed that the priority now is to move to implementation by bringing companies onto the platform, identifying priority sectors, establishing clear points of contact, and following promising opportunities through to actual projects.

Business

Oil Prices Rise 2% as China Suspends Fuel Exports

The Klesch oil refinery, formerly BP, produces petrol, diesel, and jet fuel in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, one day before the German government starts a fuel tax discount, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)
The Klesch oil refinery, formerly BP, produces petrol, diesel, and jet fuel in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, one day before the German government starts a fuel tax discount, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)
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Oil Prices Rise 2% as China Suspends Fuel Exports

The Klesch oil refinery, formerly BP, produces petrol, diesel, and jet fuel in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, one day before the German government starts a fuel tax discount, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)
The Klesch oil refinery, formerly BP, produces petrol, diesel, and jet fuel in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, one day before the German government starts a fuel tax discount, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)

Oil prices rose around 2% on Thursday after China suspended oil products exports, potentially tightening fuel markets already coping with supply shortages globally, while investors continued to assess renewed diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war.

The new front-month December Brent crude futures contract traded at $100.09 per barrel at 0829 GMT, up 2.1%, or $2.06, from Wednesday's close, Reuters reported.

The November contract expired on Wednesday, settling at $103.50 per barrel, marking a monthly gain of around 14% in September for the front-month contract.

US West Texas ⁠Intermediate crude was ⁠up $2.06, or 2.28%, to $92.48 a barrel.

Prices were volatile on Thursday, having slipped more than 1% in early trading, before rebounding.

Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, four people briefed on the matter said on Thursday, a move that will further crimp war-constrained fuel markets.

"The Chinese export ban suggests concerns about domestic product availability," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that it remains to ⁠be seen whether the measures will support higher crude imports after recent drawdowns in Chinese crude and fuel stocks.

Global diesel supplies have tightened as a result of falling refining capacity due to attacks linked to the Middle East and Ukraine wars, raising pressure on governments to intervene to shield consumers.

The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help ease global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban, three people close to the discussions said.

European diesel refinery profit margins were trading at around $80.05 per barrel at 0829 GMT, down around 4% from the previous session. The margin hit an all-time high of $95 per barrel on September 23.

Investors ⁠continued to watch ⁠diplomacy efforts and oil exports in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu, Reuters reported on Tuesday, after earlier restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline.

Iran said on Wednesday it had received a US response to its latest proposal to resurrect the collapsed ceasefire in the Gulf.

However, US President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN citing US officials as saying he was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for "concrete" steps by Tehran on its nuclear program.