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TotalEnergies: Strong Trading, High Oil Prices Will Boost Q1 Earnings

(FILES) This illustrative photograph shows screens displaying the logo of the French company TotalEnergies, listed on the CAC 40, the main stock market index of the Paris Stock Exchange, in Toulouse on March 31, 2026. (Photo by Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP)
(FILES) This illustrative photograph shows screens displaying the logo of the French company TotalEnergies, listed on the CAC 40, the main stock market index of the Paris Stock Exchange, in Toulouse on March 31, 2026. (Photo by Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP)
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TotalEnergies: Strong Trading, High Oil Prices Will Boost Q1 Earnings

(FILES) This illustrative photograph shows screens displaying the logo of the French company TotalEnergies, listed on the CAC 40, the main stock market index of the Paris Stock Exchange, in Toulouse on March 31, 2026. (Photo by Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP)
(FILES) This illustrative photograph shows screens displaying the logo of the French company TotalEnergies, listed on the CAC 40, the main stock market index of the Paris Stock Exchange, in Toulouse on March 31, 2026. (Photo by Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP)

TotalEnergies expects a significant increase in first-quarter earnings from a strong trading performance, as well as in its upstream production and oil sales due to higher prices caused by the war in Iran, even as the conflict shut down 15% of the French group's overall production, it said on Thursday.

The group's margin on refining fuel in Europe during the quarter stood at $11.40 per barrel, up 192% from $3.90 a ⁠year earlier, and flat ⁠compared to the fourth-quarter 2025 margin of $11.40, it said in an earnings outlook.

It is due to report first-quarter earnings on April 29.

Benchmark Brent crude futures climbed to multi-year highs near $120 a barrel after US-Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, followed by Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its attacks on Gulf neighbors.

Despite losing output of about 100,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day in the Middle East, additional production in other geographies helped keep overall production flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

That led to a significant rise in first-quarter upstream income due to oil price gains, Total said, while downstream results also increased due to refineries running above 90% and "strong performance from crude oil and petroleum product trading activities in March."

According to Reuters, Total said strong trading around market volatility also significantly boosted its liquefied natural gas earnings.

British rivals BP and Shell have said the oil price volatility caused by the ⁠war significantly boosted ⁠their trading profits.

US peers Chevron and Exxon said higher prices boosted their upstream earnings, but hit their downstream business due to financial hedging transactions undertaken around cargoes that could not be delivered due to the Strait of Hormuz's closure.

Total's Integrated Power results are expected to be around $500 million, roughly flat compared to a year ago.

Marketing and Services will also be in line with results a year ago.

The company expects a working capital build of $5 billion for the quarter — about $2.5-3 billion of which Total attributed to the seasonality of the business, with the remainder related to the impact of oil and product price rises on Total's inventories.

Shares of TotalEnergies SE were down 0.8% at 76.04 euros at 0702 GMT, paring losses after falling as much as 3.2%.

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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.

Business

OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.

Business

Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.