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Gold Eases on Firmer Dollar as Investors Await Clarity on US-Iran Talks

An image taken with a slow shutter speed showing an Indian woman walking in front of gold ornaments at a jewelry shop on the occasion of the Akshaya Tritiya festivities in Bangalore, India, 20 April 2026. (EPA)
An image taken with a slow shutter speed showing an Indian woman walking in front of gold ornaments at a jewelry shop on the occasion of the Akshaya Tritiya festivities in Bangalore, India, 20 April 2026. (EPA)
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Gold Eases on Firmer Dollar as Investors Await Clarity on US-Iran Talks

An image taken with a slow shutter speed showing an Indian woman walking in front of gold ornaments at a jewelry shop on the occasion of the Akshaya Tritiya festivities in Bangalore, India, 20 April 2026. (EPA)
An image taken with a slow shutter speed showing an Indian woman walking in front of gold ornaments at a jewelry shop on the occasion of the Akshaya Tritiya festivities in Bangalore, India, 20 April 2026. (EPA)

Gold prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar firmed, while investors waited to see if the US and Iran are meeting this week for peace talks after renewed tensions over the weekend.

Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,807.91 per ounce, as of 0217 GMT, extending its fall from Monday when it hit the lowest level since April 13. US gold futures for June delivery ‌were steady at $4,827.30.

The ‌US dollar firmed, making greenback-denominated commodities more ‌expensive ⁠for holders of ⁠other currencies.

Investors are now awaiting "the next headline regarding whether the talks are going to go ahead in Islamabad and then if they do, whether a ceasefire is extended or even better, a peace deal is done," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"If those things happen, gold will probably be well supported ⁠because oil prices will drop. If those things ‌don't come about, you might start ‌to see some of that volatility come back into the market," Rodda ‌said.

Oil prices fell as investors reassessed supply risks on expectations ‌peace talks between the US and Iran will take place this week and allow more supply to flow from the key Middle East producing region.

Higher crude prices feed into inflation by raising transportation and production costs. ‌Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates make yield-bearing assets more attractive, weighing on ⁠its appeal.

Iran ⁠is considering attending peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, following moves by Islamabad to end a US blockade of Iran's ports, a significant obstacle to Tehran rejoining peace efforts as the end of a two-week ceasefire approaches.

The two-week ceasefire to the conflict that has killed thousands and roiled the global economy, particularly energy markets, is set to expire this week.

Gold prices have fallen about 8% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.6% to $79.40 per ounce, platinum lost 0.7% to $2,074, while palladium was up 0.3% at $1,556.16.

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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.

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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.

Business

Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.