Dollar Set for Weekly Gain on Stalled US-Iran Talks and Middle East Uncertainty

US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
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Dollar Set for Weekly Gain on Stalled US-Iran Talks and Middle East Uncertainty

US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes (Reuters)

The dollar was on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks on Friday in broadly muted trading, as stalled peace negotiations between the US and Iran dampened hopes for an immediate easing of Middle East tensions.

While Lebanon and Israel extended their ceasefire for three weeks ahead of its expiration on Sunday, Iran showed off its control over the Strait of Hormuz by releasing footage of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, leaving the timing of the reopening of the world's most important shipping corridor uncertain and keeping oil prices elevated.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, slipped 0.1% to 98.75 but remained on track for a weekly gain of 0.5%. The euro was 0.1% higher at $1.169, Reuters reported.

Sterling edged 0.1% higher, with stronger-than-expected UK retail sales for March barely moving the needle.

"If you look at the last week the major theme is just that there's no real progression with peace talks. For markets, it's difficult when there's no deadline," said Tommy Von Brömsen, FX strategist at Handelsbanken in Stockholm.

Brent crude futures rose 1.5% to $106.60 a barrel.

The dollar has drawn safe-haven demand amid the uncertainty. It gained ground in March as concerns over the conflict deepened, but gave back some of those gains this month as optimism over a potential resolution grew.

"Oil and the dollar are still moving pretty closely together, and with crude creeping back up ... I'd say the dollar is still staying fairly firm," said Sho Suzuki, a market analyst at Matsui Securities.

Meanwhile, the yen was steady after four days of losses, rising 0.1% to 159.7 per dollar.

CENBANK BONANZA LOOMS

Traders are looking ahead to a central-bank-heavy week next week, with the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Federal Reserve among those due to deliver policy decisions.

"The main message from the central banks is that they are - so far at least - in a kind of 'wait-and-see' approach," said Handelsbanken's Von Bromsen.

He said the focus will be on communication and guidance, as market watchers assess how policymakers are digesting not just higher energy prices but the second-round effects of potentially higher inflation.

The European Central Bank will hold its deposit rate on April 30 but hike it in June, according to just over half of economists polled by Reuters, in a bid to protect a war-induced energy shock from knocking the euro zone economy off balance.

Meanwhile in Japan core consumer inflation slowed below the central bank's 2% target for a second straight month in March. Analysts, though, expect inflation to accelerate back above the Bank of Japan's target in coming months, as companies begin to pass on higher fuel costs from the Middle East conflict.

The BOJ is set to hold its two-day policy meeting ending on Tuesday. Reuters reported the bank is likely to hold off raising interest rates next week as fading prospects of a near-term end to the Middle East war keep the country's economic and price outlook highly uncertain. The BOJ is still expected to signal its readiness to hike to counter mounting price pressures.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her verbal warning on intervention on Friday that authorities can take "decisive" action against speculative moves in the foreign exchange market, a day after saying Japan has a "free hand" to intervene and that past interventions had been effective.

The Australian dollar rose 0.1% versus the greenback to $0.7135. New Zealand's kiwi rose 0.1% to $0.5859.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was little changed at $77,895.85.



Ministry of Tourism Highlights Investment Opportunities at FHS Saudi Arabia 2026

The Ministry highlighted Saudi Arabia’s growing appeal as a tourism investment destination and showcased the wide range of opportunities emerging across the Kingdom’s rapidly developing tourism sector. (SPA)
The Ministry highlighted Saudi Arabia’s growing appeal as a tourism investment destination and showcased the wide range of opportunities emerging across the Kingdom’s rapidly developing tourism sector. (SPA)
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Ministry of Tourism Highlights Investment Opportunities at FHS Saudi Arabia 2026

The Ministry highlighted Saudi Arabia’s growing appeal as a tourism investment destination and showcased the wide range of opportunities emerging across the Kingdom’s rapidly developing tourism sector. (SPA)
The Ministry highlighted Saudi Arabia’s growing appeal as a tourism investment destination and showcased the wide range of opportunities emerging across the Kingdom’s rapidly developing tourism sector. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Tourism participated in the Future Hospitality Summit (FHS) Saudi Arabia 2026, held in Riyadh from June 22 to 24, bringing together investors, developers, operators, and leading global brands from across the hospitality and tourism sectors.

Through its participation as the Strategic Enabler of the Kingdom's premier hospitality investment forum, the Ministry highlighted Saudi Arabia’s growing appeal as a tourism investment destination and showcased the wide range of opportunities emerging across the Kingdom’s rapidly developing tourism sector, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Wednesday.

In his opening address, Deputy Minister for Tourism Destinations Enablement Eng. Mahmoud Abdulhadi said: “Saudi Arabia is not asking investors to invest in a promise. It is inviting them into a market already moving at scale.”

Highlighting the breadth of this opportunity, he added: “Saudi tourism is not built on one project, one city, or one market segment. It is a national portfolio of destinations shaped for diverse demand.”

Abdulhadi also participated in a fireside chat titled “From Opportunity to Bankability: Saudi Tourism’s Next Investment Chapter,” where he stressed that Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector has entered a new phase focused on elevating the quality of the visitor experience.

“My advice to investors is simple: come, explore, and engage with the ecosystem. The opportunity is not only in building assets, but in creating high-quality experiences for the traveler,” he said.

Throughout the three-day event, the Ministry of Tourism presented Saudi Arabia’s evolving tourism landscape, highlighting its efforts to foster an investment-enabling environment and unlock new opportunities across the Kingdom’s destinations in support of Saudi Vision 2030 and the sector’s long-term growth.

The Ministry also introduced local and international investors to its targeted incentive programs and initiatives designed to support their investment journey, most notably the Tourism Investment Enablers Program (TIEP) and the Hospitality Investment Enablers (HIE) initiative.

During FHS, the Ministry launched the Global Investment in Saudi Tourism report, which highlights key growth indicators in the sector, the expansion of leading global hospitality brands in the Saudi market, and ongoing efforts to strengthen the Kingdom’s position as a premier global destination for tourism investment.

The Ministry of Tourism’s participation in FHS Saudi Arabia 2026 forms part of its ongoing efforts to engage local and international investors and partners, unlock high-quality investment opportunities, and support private sector participation in the development of the tourism industry, advancing the objectives of the National Tourism Strategy and Saudi Vision 2030.


Gold Drops Below Key $4,000 Level as Dollar Firms, Rate Hike Bets Rise

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops Below Key $4,000 Level as Dollar Firms, Rate Hike Bets Rise

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell more than 3% and traded below a key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, under pressure from a firmer US dollar and growing expectations of interest rate hikes.

Spot gold fell 3.4% to $3,968.41 an ounce as of 1312 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since November 2025.

US gold futures declined nearly 4% to $3,984.40.

The US dollar firmed, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Traders have ramped up bets on US interest rate hikes this year after the US central bank struck a hawkish tone at its latest policy meeting and as fears of inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war persist.

"The market pricing a rate hike as soon as September due to a hawkish Fed, a surging dollar at 13-month highs combined with lower inflation expectations are putting heavy pressure on precious metals," Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said.

"For gold, there is support just under $3,900 and central bank purchases continue, so a collapse is unlikely, but expect a potentially long period of consolidation as the gold trade is now out of favor," he added.

Gold becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates rise because it offers no yield.

Spot gold, which scaled a record peak of $5,594.82 in late January, has since shed over $1,600 an ounce.

ING analysts cut their gold forecasts, now expecting prices to average $4,300 an ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 in the fourth, compared with their previous projections of $4,850 and $5,000, respectively, according to Reuters.

Investors are also awaiting US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due on Thursday for further signals on the monetary policy outlook.

More hawkish signals from Fed officials or economic data that supports the argument for higher rates may translate to further downside risk for gold, said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 6% to $58.28 per ounce after hitting its lowest level since December 2025.

Platinum lost 4.3% to $1,580.76, and palladium dropped 4.9% to $1,177.50.

 

 

 


Oil Extends Slide to More than 1% on Expectations of Smoother Crude Flows via Hormuz

Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)
Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)
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Oil Extends Slide to More than 1% on Expectations of Smoother Crude Flows via Hormuz

Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)
Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday, extending this week's losses to hit fresh four-month lows on signs that more oil tankers are set to move out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were down $1.37, or 1.8%, at $75.71 a barrel by 0805 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate slipped by $1.08, or 1.5%, to $72.13.

Brent touched a low of $75.60, its weakest level since February 27, the day before the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran. WTI fell as low as $72.03, the weakest since March 3.

"While there are early encouraging signs of increased tanker activity, the market is pricing in the broader scenario of Iranian oil re-entering the global market and the Strait of Hormuz normalising," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"If sanctions are eased, Iranian production and exports could ramp up relatively quickly given the substantial amount stored on tankers — we are likely talking weeks rather than months," Waterer added, Reuters reported.

Prices have also come under pressure this week from the 60-day sanctions waiver Washington granted Tehran after initial peace talks, allowing Iran to sell oil, and from an easing of hostilities in Lebanon, with prices approaching pre-war levels.

Ship-tracking data showed that three stranded supertankers passed through the strait on Tuesday. The UN shipping agency said an evacuation plan is under way to enable hundreds of stranded ships to sail through the strait after the US-Iran ceasefire deal.

On Tuesday, Oman and Iran agreed to press on with discussions about managing navigation in the strait. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that any attempt by Iran to levy transit fees would violate international law.

Uncertainty remains over the durability of the accord, however. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections into "infinity", though Tehran said it had made no such concession.

"Markets are currently assigning too much confidence to a favorable outcome without fully discounting the risks associated with unresolved nuclear issues and inspection disputes," said Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial.

Investors are also watching how quickly Middle Eastern producers can restore exports and whether more ships will enter the region.

Meanwhile, US crude stocks fell by 765,000 barrels in the week to June 19, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

Nine analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude inventories fell by about 4.5 million barrels in the past week.