Analysts: Vision 2030 Accelerates Saudi Economy Reshaping Through Diversification

Analysts: Vision 2030 Accelerates Saudi Economy Reshaping Through Diversification
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Analysts: Vision 2030 Accelerates Saudi Economy Reshaping Through Diversification

Analysts: Vision 2030 Accelerates Saudi Economy Reshaping Through Diversification

Saudi Arabia has successfully reshaped its economic base in recent years, transitioning from a model primarily reliant on oil to a more diverse and sustainable economy, driven by the Vision 2030 programs launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia continues its transformative path under Vision 2030, entering a new phase focused on sustainable growth and consolidating achievements, following years of economic and structural reforms that reshaped the national economy.

The 2025 annual report shows that the Kingdom has successfully established a more diverse and resilient economic model, supported by the increasing contribution of non-oil sectors and the expansion of the production and investment base.

This Vision, which included the implementation of over 1,000 legislative reforms, has contributed to improving the business environment, enhancing Saudi Arabia's attractiveness, and building effective and growing economic sectors.

This has positioned the Kingdom among the fastest-growing economies globally, strengthening its ability to face global economic fluctuations.

Furthermore, Vision 2030 has successfully outlined clear strategic objectives to activate Saudi Arabia's economic strengths through the development of key sectors including aviation, tourism, logistics, industry, and mining, among others. This is supported by massive investments and major projects that have reshaped the economy's structure
Non-oil activities have served to bolster the Saudi economy as the “main engine of growth,” which has contributed to enhancing its competitiveness and placing it at the forefront of active economies regionally and globally.

This momentum is based on the expansion of diverse and promising sectors, including tourism and entertainment, as well as industry, transport, and logistics, among others. This has boosted their contribution to the output, after non-oil activities recorded a historic level of 2.6 trillion riyals ($693 billion) in 2024, growing by 6 percent.

Economic Structure Transformation

Hamza Dweik, Head of Trading for the Middle East and North Africa at Saxo Bank, affirms that the results of Vision 2030 have clearly demonstrated “the transformation of the Kingdom's economic structure away from total reliance on oil.”

He pointed to the remarkable expansion in non-oil sectors and the increase in non-oil government revenues, which contributed to reducing the economy's sensitivity to oil price fluctuations.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he clarified that institutional and regulatory reforms, including developing the business environment, financial markets, enhancing workforce participation, and attracting foreign investment, have contributed to increasing the inflow of local and international capital, which is a fundamental element in achieving economic diversification. He added that these transformations have altered the investment outlook for Saudi Arabia, which is now seen as a multi-sector economy, supported by the depth of its financial markets and the increase in initial public offerings.

Dweik pointed out that the diversification process is still ongoing, noting that oil will remain an important factor in financing development. He expects the next phase to focus on enhancing productivity and efficiency, ensuring the sustainability of emerging sectors without reliance on government support, emphasizing that the quality of this diversification will be the true measure of future success.

Accelerated Growth of Non-Oil Sectors

Firas Al-Bayrouti, Regional Director for Milestone Systems in Saudi Arabia, states that the features of the new economy are evident in “the accelerated growth of non-oil sectors, increased investments, and continuous development of modern infrastructure.”

He noted that these factors reflect “strategic planning aimed at building a more diverse and resilient economy.”

He added that Vision 2030 has opened wide horizons for vital sectors such as tourism, technology, logistics, and entertainment, in addition to fostering an environment of investment and innovation, with the growing role of the private sector as a key driver of long-term economic growth.

Al-Bayrouti confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that data-backed smart technologies will play a pivotal role in the next phase, both in supporting infrastructure and enhancing security and operational efficiency. He pointed out that technology has become an essential part of building more efficient and secure cities and institutions.

Major Projects

Asrar Khazi, Regional Director for Euro Systems in Saudi Arabia, believes that the economic transformation is also embodied in “a comprehensive reformulation of the urban environment.”

He noted that the major projects in the Kingdom have surpassed traditional frameworks, pushing the boundaries of design, engineering, and sustainability to unprecedented levels.
He explained that these projects represent integrated economic systems that contribute to attracting investments and stimulating new sectors, thereby fostering sustainable growth.

Additionally, they form a modern architectural identity that blends advanced technologies with cultural dimensions, citing projects like Diriyah as an example.

Khazi indicated that this trend boosts demand for advanced engineering solutions and contributes to developing local capabilities and supply chains, which creates long-term economic value and strengthens the urban sector's role as a driver of economic diversification.



Barclays Bank to Cut about 5,000 Jobs amid AI Drive

Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
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Barclays Bank to Cut about 5,000 Jobs amid AI Drive

Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File

British bank Barclays announced Thursday plans to cut around 5,000 jobs, or roughly five percent of its global workforce, by the end of 2026 in an AI efficiency drive.

The announcement came alongside an earnings update that showed Barclays' net profit grew 13 percent in the third quarter, fueled by surging income across its equities division, said AFP.

Barclays said in an earnings presentation that it was implementing "organizational simplification and technology change efficiency driven by AI".

"About 60 percent of the job losses relate to support functions, including fewer developers as AI makes our people more productive," it added.

The bank's profit after tax grew to £1.65 billion ($2.2 billion) in the third quarter from £1.46 billion in the July-September period a year earlier.

Barclays chief executive C. S. Venkatakrishnan noted "ongoing momentum of... operational and financial performance" and said the investment bank division "delivered strong equities performance".

Revenue from equities jumped 47 percent year-on-year, while total group income for the quarter climbed three percent to £7.37 billion.

Barclays' share price was up slightly following the news updates.

The AI "announcement comes as the company failed to match expectations with its third-quarter performance -- with the unveiling of a healthy share buyback failing to entirely ease investors' disappointment", noted AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

"Across the wider group, costs went up and Barclays shareholders are also having to contend with two major clouds over the business.

"The first being a widely expected increase in tax on the sector in next week's (UK) budget and the other being a reported probe into possible misrepresentation of risks in its private credit portfolio."


Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Loses Over $30 Bn in 3rd Quarter

A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo
A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo
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Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Loses Over $30 Bn in 3rd Quarter

A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo
A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest with assets of more than $2 trillion, on Thursday reported a negative return of 278 billion kroner ($31 billion) in the third quarter as it was weighed down by higher interest rates.

It posted a negative return of 0.5 percent in the quarter, dragged down by a negative return of 3.5 percent in its fixed-income investments, while its equity and property portfolios increased by 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent respectively.

"The fund's return was close to flat, ending slightly negative as rising interest rates led to weaker results on our fixed-income investments," the fund's deputy CEO Trond Grande said in a statement.

Invested primarily in equities, bonds and real estate across the globe, the fund reported a value of 22,014 billion kroner at the end of September.

Inflation around the world, fuelled in particular by soaring energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, has led several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to raise interest rates in the third quarter.

"Equity returns were also close to zero, but there were large differences between sectors.

Energy companies rose the most, while interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate fell," Grande said, according to Reuters.

Fueled by the Nordic country's oil revenues, the fund is invested in more than 7,100 companies spanning the globe, and holds around 1.5 percent of all listed companies worldwide, making it the world's largest single investor.


IMF: Non-Oil Activities Bolster Saudi Economy’s Resilience to Disruptions

King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)
King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)
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IMF: Non-Oil Activities Bolster Saudi Economy’s Resilience to Disruptions

King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)
King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)

The International Monetary Fund’s outlook for the Saudi economy points to promising prospects for recovery and growth, despite pressures from regional disruptions affecting energy production, trade flows and supply chains.

While the Kingdom’s GDP is expected to be affected in 2026 by a decline in oil and gas activity, non-oil activities are proving more resilient. The economy is projected to rebound strongly in 2027 as energy production gradually returns to normal and security and trade conditions improve.

The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook, issued in October 2026, places Saudi Arabia among the major economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region, at a time when the region is grappling with the repercussions of conflicts and disruptions to energy supplies and global trade.

Temporary Growth Contraction, Non-Oil Activities Remain Resilient

The report forecasts that Saudi Arabia’s real GDP will contract by 3.3 percent in 2026, reflecting a decline in hydrocarbon-sector activity during the first half of the year amid disruptions affecting energy production, shipping and regional supply chains, particularly those linked to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

By contrast, the Kingdom’s non-oil activities have demonstrated resilience and performed relatively better than the energy sector, supported by sustained investment momentum and economic diversification programs associated with Vision 2030.

In the tourism sector, the Kingdom recorded the smallest decline in hotel occupancy rates compared with other countries directly affected by regional tensions, reflecting its relative ability to sustain tourism and services activity under the current circumstances.

Strong Rebound Expected in 2027

Despite the contraction expected in 2026, the IMF projects a strong rebound in the Saudi economy the following year, with real GDP forecast to grow by 7.9 percent in 2027.

The recovery is linked to the gradual return of energy production to normal levels, greater stability in security and trade conditions, and an improvement in global supply chains.

Over the medium term, the report projects Saudi real GDP growth to stabilize at around 3.6 percent by 2031, reflecting a return to a more stable growth trajectory following the volatility expected during the current period.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

On prices, average inflation in Saudi Arabia is estimated at around 2.7 percent in 2026 before stabilizing at approximately 2 percent in subsequent years, according to the projections cited in the report.

Factors including subsidies, price controls and fiscal discipline have helped contain inflationary pressures and maintain relative price stability compared with several other economies in the region.

On monetary policy, Gulf central banks, including Saudi monetary authorities, have taken steps in line with moves by the US Federal Reserve, with the aim of supporting financial market stability and limiting potential inflationary pressures.

Fiscal Resilience and Capacity to Absorb Shocks

Saudi fiscal policy in 2026 is characterized by discipline and prudence, while retaining room to direct spending toward strategic priorities, including infrastructure development, improving spending efficiency and supporting long-term structural reforms.

According to the report, the Kingdom also entered the period of regional disruption with comfortable reserves and fiscal buffers, helping it absorb temporary shocks that could affect the current account and official reserves.

These fiscal buffers are particularly important amid heightened regional and global uncertainty, providing greater capacity to withstand volatility while continuing to invest in economic priorities.

Artificial Intelligence

Investment in technology and artificial intelligence is one of the areas in which Saudi Arabia, alongside other Gulf countries, is seeking to expand its presence. The report examines announced investments in AI infrastructure and data centers, which, according to figures cited in the report, exceed 5 percent of GDP. These investments are expected to contribute to stronger productivity and growth over the medium term.

At the same time, structural reforms remain an important factor in strengthening the economy’s ability to withstand external shocks by increasing labor-market flexibility, investing in human capital and diversifying non-oil exports.

The report also points to the progress made by Gulf Cooperation Council countries in diversifying their merchandise exports over the past two decades, underscoring the importance of continuing efforts to broaden the production and trade base and reduce dependence on traditional sources of income.

Taken together, these trends underscore the importance of economic diversification and investment in new sectors in strengthening Saudi Arabia’s ability to weather the repercussions of current disruptions while preserving its medium-term growth prospects.