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Gold Eases as Inflation Jitters, Iran War Cloud US Rate Outlook

AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
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Gold Eases as Inflation Jitters, Iran War Cloud US Rate Outlook

AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul

Gold prices nudged lower in thin trade on Monday, weighed down by inflation worries that clouded the US monetary policy outlook, while markets awaited developments in US-Iran peace negotiations.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,588.71 per ounce, as of 0655 GMT. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.9% to $4,600.60.

Markets in China, Japan and the UK are closed for holidays.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell closed out eight years as head of the US central bank last Wednesday with interest rates on hold and rising concern about inflation, Reuters reported.

"Gold is still feeling the lingering effects of last week's hawkish Fed messaging, particularly the notable dissenting voices pushing back against further easing," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Federal Reserve officials, who dissented against the policy statement last week, said the oil price shock from the Iran war means the US Fed should be clear it can no longer lean towards interest rate cuts, with a rise in borrowing costs possible in the future.

Increasing oil prices could encourage central banks to hold interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets such as gold.

Oil prices eased but held above $100 a barrel, with the lack of clarity around a potential US-Iran peace deal remaining in focus.

President Donald Trump said the United States would start helping to free ships stranded in the Gulf by the US-Israeli war on Iran from Monday, as a tanker reported being hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian state media reported that Washington conveyed its response to Iran's 14-point proposal via Pakistan, and that Tehran was now reviewing it.

"We see gold largely trading in a $4,400-$5,500 range by year-end. The upper end of that range would require a durable reduction in Middle East tensions and some easing of inflation pressures, while persistent high oil prices would keep the metal toward the lower half of the range," Waterer added.

Spot silver fell 0.6% to $74.91 per ounce, platinum held steady at $1,989, and palladium was down 0.4% at $1,519.78.

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Global LNG Exports Fall to Two-Year Low

Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)
Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)
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Global LNG Exports Fall to Two-Year Low

Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)
Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)

Global exports of liquefied natural gas fell to the lowest in almost two years in April, as the war in the Middle East disrupted flows of the super-chilled fuel through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.

Shipments declined to about 33 million tons, the lowest level since May 2024, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

The drop came after Qatar — the second-largest exporter last year — halted production following strikes on the world’s biggest plant by Iran in March, with the damage set to take years to repair.

Despite the ceasefire in the war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass, remains closed. Since the start of the conflict, only one LNG tanker has transited the strait.

Nevertheless, lost volumes have been partially offset by new production elsewhere in the world. According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, April shipments were down only 7 percent from the previous year, suggesting that increased output from suppliers, including the United States and Canada, has partially compensated for the reduced volumes from Qatar.

In the United States, the massive Golden Pass LNG terminal shipped its first cargo last month. Qatar also delivered some volumes to Kuwait, which can export them without transiting the Strait.

Business

Turkish Inflation Jumps to 4.18% m/m in April, Exceeding Forecasts

Passers-by walk at Galata bridge on a rainy spring day in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, May 2, 2026. (AP)
Passers-by walk at Galata bridge on a rainy spring day in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, May 2, 2026. (AP)
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Turkish Inflation Jumps to 4.18% m/m in April, Exceeding Forecasts

Passers-by walk at Galata bridge on a rainy spring day in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, May 2, 2026. (AP)
Passers-by walk at Galata bridge on a rainy spring day in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, May 2, 2026. (AP)

Turkish consumer price inflation surged to 4.18% month-on-month in April, while the annual figure climbed to 32.37%, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday, with both measures exceeding economists' forecasts.

In a Reuters poll, monthly inflation was forecast to be 3.28%, with the annual rate seen at 31.25%, as the Iran war drives ‌a sharp ‌rise in fuel prices and ‌expectations ⁠of a slower-than-anticipated disinflation ⁠trend.

The biggest monthly price rises in April were shown by the clothing and footwear sector, with 8.94% inflation, and the housing sector at 7.99%, while key transport sector prices were up 4.29% and ⁠food and drinks sector prices ‌were up 3.7%.

In ‌March, consumer price inflation dipped to 1.94% month-on-month, ‌while the annual figure fell to ‌30.87%, both figures below forecasts.

The data also showed the domestic producer index rose 3.17% month-on-month in April for an annual increase of 28.59%.

The ‌central bank flagged rising inflation risks in its monetary policy committee ⁠statement ⁠last month, when it kept main interest rates steady, saying it was closely monitoring fallout from the Iran war and potential second-round effects.

In February, Türkiye's central bank raised its year-end inflation forecast range by two percentage points to 15–21%, while keeping its interim 16% target unchanged, despite market doubts over whether the disinflation trend seen through much of 2025 remains on track.

Business

Seoul, Taipei Hit Records as Asian Stocks Track Wall St Tech Rally

Dealers watch computer monitors near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, May 4, 2026. (AP)
Dealers watch computer monitors near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, May 4, 2026. (AP)
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Seoul, Taipei Hit Records as Asian Stocks Track Wall St Tech Rally

Dealers watch computer monitors near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, May 4, 2026. (AP)
Dealers watch computer monitors near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, May 4, 2026. (AP)

Seoul and Taipei hit record highs Monday as tech firms led a rally across most Asian markets, tracking a healthy day on Wall Street fueled by more strong earnings.

Investors were also cheered by news that Iran had submitted fresh proposals to end its war with the United States and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

While the Middle East crisis continued to rumble along, with the waterway still effectively choked off, dealers turned their focus on the corporate world as they jumped back into the AI trade that has propelled several markets to record highs.

Forecast-beating reports from Apple, Google, Microsoft and Samsung have reawakened interest in the artificial intelligence sector after the market tumult caused by the US-Israel strikes on Iran at the end of February.

Companies in the S&P 500 are on track to report earnings growth of 27.1 percent, the highest rate in more than four years, according to Factset.

Investors have been playing a waiting game since a US-Iran ceasefire was agreed at the start of April, with just one round of talks taking place that came to nothing.

In the meantime, the United States maintains a blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran is keeping the strait -- through which a fifth of global oil and gas usually passes -- closed.

Optimism was given a boost Friday after an Iranian report that Tehran had delivered the text of a new proposal to mediator Pakistan the night before.

The offer was said by the Tasnim News Agency as calling for a complete end to the conflict within 30 days along with guarantees against renewed strikes.

It also reiterated previous demands that include the withdrawal of US forces from near Iran, the blockade to be lifted and sanctions removed.

Donald Trump said Sunday that "very positive discussions" were underway and that US forces will soon start escorting ships out of the Strait of Hormuz in a "humanitarian gesture" dubbed "Project Freedom".

In a post on Truth Social, the US president said many of the marooned ships "were running low on food", but offered few details on how the mission would work.

US Central Command said on X that its forces would begin supporting Project Freedom with guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members.

However, a senior Iranian official warned Monday that Tehran would consider any US attempt to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz a breach of the ongoing ceasefire.

Oil prices edged up Monday after dropping as much as three percent Friday.

"Whether this will lead to sustained weakness in oil remains to be seen," wrote Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.

"In my view, as long as the Strait of Hormuz situation remains unresolved, these types of headlines are likely to provide only temporary pressure on prices rather than drive a prolonged move lower."

Equities started the month on a broadly positive note, following all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in New York on Friday.

Seoul surged more than five percent and Taipei jumped more than four percent to hit fresh records.

South Korean chip giant SK hynix was the standout, piling on 12.5 percent, while rival Samsung was up more than five percent. Taiwanese counterpart TSMC was 6.6 percent up.

Hong Kong was lifted by a surge in Chinese tech firms including Alibaba, while Mumbai, Singapore, Manila, Wellington and Jakarta were also up.

Paris fell at the open and Frankfurt rose.

Tokyo, Shanghai and London were closed for holidays.

However, Chris Weston at Pepperstone said: "After a strong April for risk assets, we need to remain open-minded about what May will bring.

"This week should provide early signals, but with risk assets pricing in a lot of good news, and rightly so, the time for that to be validated may now be here."

On currency markets, the yen was holding its own against the dollar after a rally on Thursday was said to have come on the back of Japanese intervention.

Officials were said to have spent at least $32 billion in the foreign exchange market, according to multiple reports, in its first such move to prop up the yen since 2024.