Gold Eases as Inflation Jitters, Iran War Cloud US Rate Outlook

AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
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Gold Eases as Inflation Jitters, Iran War Cloud US Rate Outlook

AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul

Gold prices nudged lower in thin trade on Monday, weighed down by inflation worries that clouded the US monetary policy outlook, while markets awaited developments in US-Iran peace negotiations.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,588.71 per ounce, as of 0655 GMT. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.9% to $4,600.60.

Markets in China, Japan and the UK are closed for holidays.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell closed out eight years as head of the US central bank last Wednesday with interest rates on hold and rising concern about inflation, Reuters reported.

"Gold is still feeling the lingering effects of last week's hawkish Fed messaging, particularly the notable dissenting voices pushing back against further easing," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Federal Reserve officials, who dissented against the policy statement last week, said the oil price shock from the Iran war means the US Fed should be clear it can no longer lean towards interest rate cuts, with a rise in borrowing costs possible in the future.

Increasing oil prices could encourage central banks to hold interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets such as gold.

Oil prices eased but held above $100 a barrel, with the lack of clarity around a potential US-Iran peace deal remaining in focus.

President Donald Trump said the United States would start helping to free ships stranded in the Gulf by the US-Israeli war on Iran from Monday, as a tanker reported being hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian state media reported that Washington conveyed its response to Iran's 14-point proposal via Pakistan, and that Tehran was now reviewing it.

"We see gold largely trading in a $4,400-$5,500 range by year-end. The upper end of that range would require a durable reduction in Middle East tensions and some easing of inflation pressures, while persistent high oil prices would keep the metal toward the lower half of the range," Waterer added.

Spot silver fell 0.6% to $74.91 per ounce, platinum held steady at $1,989, and palladium was down 0.4% at $1,519.78.



Trump Lifts Some Canada Tariffs Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, at President Donald J. Trump International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, at President Donald J. Trump International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
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Trump Lifts Some Canada Tariffs Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, at President Donald J. Trump International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, at President Donald J. Trump International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump's administration lifted some tariffs on Canadian imports Friday, two weeks ahead of midterm elections, after a vulnerable Republican candidate said she'd lobbied for the change.

The easing of tariffs will apply to products including "plywood sheets, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment," the White House said in a statement.

The change could help Senator Susan Collins, who faces a strong challenge from a Democrat in the US-Canada border state of Maine, which has been hit hard by Trump's trade war.

She posted on social media that she had "secured" the exemptions for "products crucial to Maine's agricultural industries, including blueberry, potato, apple, and seaweed producers."

Democrats are targeting Collins's seat in their attempt to win control of Congress from the Republicans in the November 3 midterms.

The economies of the United States and Canada are heavily inter-connected, with roughly 70 percent of all Canadian exports heading to the United States.

Tensions between the North American neighbors have been high since trade talks broke down in August, with Trump imposing a slew of new tariffs in response.

Friday's action lifts tariffs on certain goods, but imposes levies on new ones, including carpets, certain valves and waste products, the White House said. The new measures will take effect on October 30.

"The Canadian government takes note of these recent tariff measures adopted by the United States," Dominic LeBlanc, Ottawa's minister in charge of US-Canada trade, said in a statement to AFP.

"While evaluating these recent measures, Canada remains ready to work together in a constructive and good-faith manner" with the US, he added.

Collins said many farmers in her state "rely on specialized equipment, packaging materials, and other products from Canada that are either unavailable from American suppliers or cannot be replaced without incurring significant expense."

Previous Trump levies on autos, steel, aluminum and lumber have hit Canada hard, forcing job losses and stunting growth. Canada has entered a technical recession this year after two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Trump's tariffs enforced after the talks broke down impacted around $20 billion worth of goods, or 5.5 percent of Canadian exports to the United States, targeting products ranging from hockey sticks to cement.

Since taking power in his second term, Trump has upended the global trade order by imposing wide-ranging tariffs on friend and foe alike, saying that other countries have been taking advantage of the United States.

He has also explicitly tied some threatened tariffs to political or foreign policy objectives.


Saudi Arabia Ranks First in GCC, 12th Globally in 2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index

The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
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Saudi Arabia Ranks First in GCC, 12th Globally in 2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index

The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ranked first among GCC states and 12th globally out of 55 pension systems in the 2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index. The Kingdom's overall score climbed to 73.2 out of 100, up from 67.6 in 2025, continuing an upward trajectory that has seen it advance 15 places since 2022.

The Kingdom achieved notable gains across the index's three primary pillars. In the Integrity sub-index—which evaluates regulatory governance, member communication, and participant rights—Saudi Arabia scored 83.5, up 9.3 points from the previous year, securing an A rating, the highest classification in the category.

The Kingdom's Sustainability score increased to 61.2 points from 54.6, while Adequacy rose to 77.2 from 75, maintaining an overall B grade, SPA reported.

With its 73.2 score, Saudi Arabia outperformed established international pension systems categorized within the B band, including the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, and Hong Kong, while leading all participating Gulf nations.

The index noted that Saudi Arabia's advancement was driven by sustained governance reforms, regulatory enhancements, data modernization, and stronger safeguards for scheme beneficiaries.

These results reflect ongoing modernization within the national social insurance ecosystem led by the Social Insurance, aimed at expanding benefit adequacy and safeguarding long-term fiscal sustainability.

Published in collaboration with the Monash Centre for Financial Studies, the 18th edition of the Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index evaluates retirement systems covering two-thirds of the world's population across more than 50 sub-indicators.


China’s January-September Fiscal Revenue up 5.1% y/y

People look at their phones in a touristic area in Beijing, China, 22 October 2026. (EPA)
People look at their phones in a touristic area in Beijing, China, 22 October 2026. (EPA)
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China’s January-September Fiscal Revenue up 5.1% y/y

People look at their phones in a touristic area in Beijing, China, 22 October 2026. (EPA)
People look at their phones in a touristic area in Beijing, China, 22 October 2026. (EPA)

China's fiscal revenue increased 5.1% in the first nine months of 2026 from a year earlier, following a gain of 5.7% in the January-August period, the finance ministry said on Friday.

In the January-September period, fiscal revenue totaled 17.2 trillion yuan ($2.58 trillion), with tax revenue growing 6.1% year-on-year and non-tax ‌revenue expanding ‌1.2%.

Fiscal expenditure was up ‌1.0% ⁠on the year ⁠in the period, slowing from a rise of 1.2% in the first eight months.

China has accelerated local special bond issuance this year and plans to front-load part of its 2027 ⁠quota, finance ministry official Zhao Zeyong ‌told a press ‌conference on Friday.

Net special bond issuance ‌from January to September reached 3.56 trillion ‌yuan, accounting for 81% of the annual quota, and issuance for September was at 633.5 billion yuan, up by 214.8 billion yuan ‌from the same month last year, Zhao said.

Revenue from ⁠government ⁠land sales fell 27.9% on the year for the period from January to September, narrowing from a fall of 28.6% in the first eight months of this year.

The property sector downturn that began in mid-2021 has eroded land-sale revenue, long a crucial funding source for Chinese local governments.