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Gold Falls as Renewed US-Iran Tensions Dampen Peace Hopes, Clouds Interest Rate Outlook

A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China痴 eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China痴 eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
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Gold Falls as Renewed US-Iran Tensions Dampen Peace Hopes, Clouds Interest Rate Outlook

A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China痴 eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China痴 eastern Jiangsu province - AFP

Gold slipped on Tuesday as US strikes in Iran pushed Brent prices higher, stoking inflation worries and clouding the outlook for US interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,537.10 per ounce, as of 1052 GMT. US gold futures for June delivery was unchanged at $4,536.80.

"The uncertainty triggered an uptick in oil prices, sharpening inflationary fears and reinforcing hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, creating a headwind for non-yielding gold," ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista said.

"The path of least resistance for gold prices remains to the downside... Traders will remain focused on the US-Iran talks, while also looking ahead to the release of US PCE inflation data."

Brent crude oil prices rose sharply after the US military carried out strikes in Iran, dampening hopes of a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that negotiating a deal with Iran could "take a few days."

Elevated crude oil prices can accelerate inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer. While gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, higher rates tend to weigh on the non-yielding metal.

Markets are pricing in a Fed rate hike before year-end, with a 41% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, according to Reuters.

Investors now await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for April due on Thursday, for more cues on US monetary policy.

Meanwhile, UBS lowered its year-end gold price target by $400 to $5,500 due to persistent risks from higher yields and a stronger dollar.

However, "elevated global debt burdens, persistent fiscal deficits in the US, and continued reserve diversification trends should again elevate the strategic case for hard assets, especially as oil prices likely moderate toward the end of the year," UBS said in a note.

Spot silver fell 2.2% to $76.37 per ounce, platinum lost 0.9% to $1,949.54, and palladium slid 1.7% to $1,374.

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Business

African Leaders to Gather in Egypt for Business Summit

Friday's forum is expected to bring together more than 20 heads of state and government representatives in the Mediterranean city of Alamein, alongside business leaders, bankers and development institutions. © KHALED DESOUKI / AFP/File
Friday's forum is expected to bring together more than 20 heads of state and government representatives in the Mediterranean city of Alamein, alongside business leaders, bankers and development institutions. © KHALED DESOUKI / AFP/File
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African Leaders to Gather in Egypt for Business Summit

Friday's forum is expected to bring together more than 20 heads of state and government representatives in the Mediterranean city of Alamein, alongside business leaders, bankers and development institutions. © KHALED DESOUKI / AFP/File
Friday's forum is expected to bring together more than 20 heads of state and government representatives in the Mediterranean city of Alamein, alongside business leaders, bankers and development institutions. © KHALED DESOUKI / AFP/File

African leaders will meet in Egypt on Friday for a business summit that Cairo hopes will bolster its clout across the continent.

Friday's forum is expected to bring together more than 20 heads of state and government representatives in the Mediterranean city of Alamein, alongside business leaders, bankers and development institutions.

"This is an African platform," Egypt's deputy foreign minister for African affairs Mohamed Abu Bakr Saleh told AFP.

"A country in East Africa should be able to sign an agreement with a country in West, North or southern Africa through this platform."

Saleh said the forum would become a biennial event under an African Union mandate, focusing on infrastructure, trade, agriculture, healthcare, mining, technology and renewable energy.

Officials estimate Egyptian investments across Africa at around $14 billion. Among Egypt's flagship ventures is Tanzania's $3 billion Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, built by a consortium led by Egyptian companies.

Yet trade within Africa remains limited, totalling just $192 billion in 2023 and only accounting for around 15 percent of the continent's total trade, compared with more than 55 percent in Asia and over 70 percent in Europe.

Africa also attracted about $70 billion in foreign direct investment in 2025, a fraction of the roughly $1.6 trillion invested globally, according to the UN.

"Africa possesses vast resources, but they are still not being exploited to the level we would like to see," Saleh said.

The gathering also takes place against the backdrop of an unresolved dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the $5 billion GERD, Africa's largest hydroelectric project.

Ethiopia says the dam, inaugurated last year, is vital for economic growth, while Egypt says it could threaten Nile water supplies without a binding operating agreement.

More than a decade of negotiations have failed to yield a settlement.

"Our position on Egypt's water security has not changed and will not change," Saleh said. "It is an existential issue for Egypt."

Business

US Ban on $1 Billion Worth of Canadian Imports Goes into Effect

Shipping containers in the Port of Montreal, Canada (Reuters)
Shipping containers in the Port of Montreal, Canada (Reuters)
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US Ban on $1 Billion Worth of Canadian Imports Goes into Effect

Shipping containers in the Port of Montreal, Canada (Reuters)
Shipping containers in the Port of Montreal, Canada (Reuters)

US-Canada relations, already tense, are likely to deteriorate further after the United States went ahead early Tuesday with a decision to ban nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian imports, including dairy products and motorcycles.

The ban amounts to barely a ripple in $880 billion worth of a two-way annual trade between the two northern neighbors. But it marks another ratcheting up of President Donald Trump’s second-term trade war with America’s longtime ally and trading partner.

The import ban “certainly won't do anything to help the trade tensions between the United States and Canada,'' said trade attorney Patrick Childress, a partner at Holland & Knight and a former US trade official.

The latest sparring began over the summer when Trump reached back to a Great Depression law to impose 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian imports, charging that Canada discriminates against US dairy and auto producers. Canada promptly counterpunched with tariffs of 15% and 25%, matching US imports dollar for dollar.

To punish Canada for retaliating against his tariffs, Trump decided to ban a list of Canadian products, effective 12:01 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday.

The economic impact is likely to be minimal. Childress noted that the products on the banned list were already facing Trump’s tariffs. “For a lot of these goods, the 50% was already acting as a de facto ban by making importation from Canada into the United States uneconomical,″ he said.

Jacob Jensen, director of trade policy at the center-right American Action Forum think tank, calculates that the ban would cover $967 million worth of Canadian imports, based on 2025 numbers.

“This marks yet another escalation in the trade war that may result in further retaliation on the Canadian side,” Jensen said. He expects Canadian exporters and US importers “impacted by these bans will be highly motivated’’ to demand that trade officials on both sides find some way to reach a “resolution of this whole ordeal.’’

Business

Birol: IEA Member States Will Discuss Strategic Oil Reserve Releases if Needed

This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
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Birol: IEA Member States Will Discuss Strategic Oil Reserve Releases if Needed

This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

The International Energy Agency's member states may discuss whether more strategic oil reserves could be released on the market in the future, IEA head Fatih Birol said on Tuesday.

"We are ⁠following the markets ⁠very closely, especially the product markets, diesel and others. If there is a need, ⁠of course, we will discuss with our member governments to take the necessary steps," he told reporters in Dublin ahead of a meeting of EU energy ministers.

Birol declined to ⁠comment ⁠on proposals hinted at by French President Emmanuel Macron and others to release more strategic reserves in a bid to lower oil prices.